Go, Gold (2012-08-30 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of gold (XAU=). It has broken many major supports and is going to set off. Would be a good chance for long positions.

Dropping Aussie (2012-08-29 AUD analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of Aussie (AUD=). After breaking down the red up-trend, the direction has reversed and it should keep on dropping.

Still a bearish week (2012-08-27 HSI analysis)

Last week was another boring week with very low volume. This definitely was not a good time for most traders. The market was full of both good and bad news, so they kind of canceled out each other.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped after reaching the resistant I mentioned in last two weeks. Dollar also went down after I have posted the divergence post about DXY. Gold broke out as I have predicted too, reaching as high as 1675 which is expected to go higher if the breakout of the resistant line is confirmed.

This week there is not many important economic data released, but we have to be prepared of the possibility that US or Europe will be going to say something about the economy. Read fast and respond fast.

Let's see this week HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














After reaching the purple resistant line two weeks ago, HSI started to turn its direction and slowly moved to lower levels. Last Friday, it dropped below 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

As US markets wasn't doing too bad last Friday, HSI is expected to open higher. 20-day SMA is anticipated to resist the index at around 20000.

If the index could not break this level, the break down will be confirmed. There is only support until 50-day SMA at around 19570 and ultimate support is at 19200 only daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart gives a clearer view. HSI started to fall after touching the red resistant line. The SMAs are converging and together with the Fibonacci retracement they will be giving support at around 19600.

If the index reaches 19600, it seems like it will be supported and will tend to break out of the red resistant line. Of course this would depend on the volume at that time, but it looks like the trend.

Nevertheless, the trend this week is still bearish. It would have to be revised after reaching 19600.

Important Economic data this week (2012-08-26)

28-Aug (Tuesday)
22:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}

29-Aug (Wednesday)
20:00 Germany CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight increase}
20:30 US GDP (Annualized) {Forecast: Rise to 1.7% from 1.5%}

30-Aug (Thursday)
15:55 Germany Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core {Forecast: Slight drop}

31-Aug (Friday)
20:30 Canada GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}

Breaking out ? (2012-08-23 Gold analysis)

Above is the weekly chart of gold (XAU). It has reached a strong resistant at this moment, but it looks like it would be breaking out very soon given that it has recently broken out a little rectangle and the MACD looks not too bad.

Obvious divergences (2012-08-21 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (DXY). It seems like it is going to plunge, which means Euros, Pounds and Yens would surge.

Still Bearish view (2012-08-20 HSI analysis)

Last week despite the economic data released, the stock market basically moved sideways without big fluctuations. Volume continued to be really low as investors mostly decided to think twice before acting in the markets.

Hang Seng Index reached the resistant line two weeks ago, but last week it did not plunge. The index remained near the resistant line, but since there is no any good catalyst for boosting it, long positions are still very risky.

Daily chart of HSI:
 















Daily chart did not change much compared with that posted last week. After reaching the resistant provided by both the Fibonacci level and the trend line, the index moved sideways and could not break out.

It is currently being supported by the 10-day SMA. However, as the support is not expected to be strong, it is quite likely that the index would drop below the current level.

Also, volume remained low which implies that the index does not have enough power to breakout. It would need some more time to save power.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart did not change much as well. The index is currently at the resistant line and cannot break out.

With lowered volume, chance of plummeting is high. The SMAs are converging and will give support at around 19500.

Then, strong and ultimate support will be at 18650 and 17800, though they are still too far to be considered.

So this week it should be a bearish week. Or at least it will move sideways.