Several supports (2012-03-26 HSI analysis)

This week I will be so busy with projects, so I may not be able to update this blog.

Daily chart of HSI:















The index has touched the upper bound of the Ichimoku cloud, as well as the median line of the Pitchfork, it seems like there will be some support to the index this week.

Weekly chart of HSI:















On weekly chart, it tells a pretty similar story. The index has already dropped into the cloud. There will be support at 20,400, and it may rebound.

Still bullish (2012-03-22 SPX analysis)

The bullish trend of S&P 500 Index seems unstoppable. Next strong resistant is at 1430, and the ultimate target is 1540, estimated using the flag break out. Can hold some long positions if the index could stand still above 1400.

Volatility moving flat (2012-03-21 VIX analysis)

VIX has been moving these days, and the market is under no-fear situation. Resistant is currently at 17.6, and there is still no sign for bullish in this fear index.

Week for further observation (2012-03-19 HSI analysis)

Last week's stock market was pretty quite, without big movements. Hang Seng Index tested 21,600 for the third time but still it was unable to break out. US markets surged greatly, S&P 500 closed above 1,400 on Friday.

Gold price plunged hardly at the beginning of last week, and was able to pare some losses on Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, it has broken down the 200-day Simple Moving Average level and it will then become a resistant to the price.

This week there is no important economic data, so it relies heavily on news coming out. Watch out with breaking news.

Daily chart of HSI:















On daily chart, we can easily see that after reaching the 21,600 resistant on last Wednesday, HSI started dropping, but was still able to close above 20-day SMA.

In order to predict the week's movements, I tried to add Pitchfork. The purple fork seems to be q quite reasonable bound to the index.

If so, support will be at 21,000 by the horizontal line, and around 20,500 by the pitchfork. The index probably starts sliding to lower levels.

If it breaks out instead, resistant would be at 22,450 and ultimate target is 24,650, which seems to be a pretty impossible target at this moment.

Weekly chart of HSI:















On weekly chart, I have added Ichimoku indicators. We can see that the index closed slight above the cloud, but we will have to see its performance this week to decide whether it is considers break out.

Also, there is a moving average cross, which is a sign of bullish. Still, more time is needed to confirm that it is not a whip-saw.

Fibonacci level at 21,600 still serves well as resistant. This week it would be a battle between the fibaoncci and MA&Ichimoku.

As there are not many hints telling us about the movements, it seems to be a good idea to stop for a while.

Important Economic data this week (2012-03-18)

20-Mar (Tuesday)
15:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Slight Drop}

21-Mar (Wednesday)
17:30 Bank of England Minutes

22-Mar (Thursday)
05:45 New Zealand GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Slight rise}
17:30 UK Retail Sales (MoM) {Forecast: Drop}

23-Mar (Friday)
19:00 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Slight rise}

Further drop in euro (2012-03-15 EUR/GBP analysis)

Watch out for further drop of EUR/GBP. The price breaks down the little upward flag which can be treated as continuation and is targeting at 0.81 from the current level of around 0.83.

Further update on CCB (2012-03-14 China Construction Bank analysis)

If HSI is breaking out 21,600, CCB (0939.HK) might be a good investment with target of 20% higher than current level.

Sideway movement (2012-03-13 Gold analysis)

Seem like gold price would move sideways for a short while.

Act-fast Week (2012-03-12 HSI analysis)

Last week, probably the biggest news was that most of the Greece debt holders agree to the swap suggested, and this is probably a good news to the market since the default date of Greece is somehow delayed. Hang Seng index surged for three consecutive days since last Wednesday.

This week, we have to be aware of the speech by FOMC this coming Tuesday morning (which will affect Hong Kong market on Wednesday), and the speech by Bernanke on Wednesday night (which will affect Hong Kong market on Thursday).

Gold price rebounded after being supported by 200-day SMA at around 1675 and closed above 1700. The crazy plunge in gold price should stop at least for this week.

OK let's get back to our weekly analysis on HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:

We can see that after staying within the range 21,000 - 21,600 for two weeks, the index finally broke down this zone on last Wednesday. On Friday, it attempted to get back above the lower boundary, and it finally closed slightly above 21,000.

Therefore, we would have to see whether the index could close within this range today. If so, the index is still be considered under (short) bullish trend. And that it will test again 21,600 for the third time, which is traditionally a good time for break out, with target of 23,700.

If the index plunges instead, the strength for surging has come to an end and we anticipate plunges this week. Support zone is at around 20,300 given by the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Ichimoku cloud gives support at near this level on after Wednesday this week.

Given the break out of the orange flag in January, if the index reaches 20,300 support zone and we see strong buying power there, it might be a good chance for us to buy some shares to catch the next bullish wave.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, we can see that last week it was supported by the 10-week Simple Moving Average, and then it rebounded and closed slight above 21,000.

The index is still inside the Ichimoku cloud. The upper bound of the cloud this week is 21,500. Therefore, if HSI could break out 21,600, even on weekly chart it will have a bullish trend, and that chance of its heading towards 23,700 is big.

If it slumps instead, the Moving Average still acts as a support, but it is expected to be a much weaker one compared to last week. There is no obvious support on weekly chart, so the support on daily chart will be taken as reference instead.

So get prepared to act on what you see this week.

Important Economic data this week (2012-03-11)

13-Mar (Tuesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
18:00 Eruo-Zone ZEW (Economic Sentiment)
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 1.0% from 0.4%}

14-Mar (Wednesday)
02:15 US FOMC Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK Jobless Claims Change
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
21:00 US Fed's Bernanke Speaks to Community Bankers

15-Mar (Thursday)
16:30 Swiss National Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 European Central Bank Publishes March Monthly Report

16-Mar (Friday)
20:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:55 U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}

source: http://dailyfx.com

Big movement by the 17-nation currency ? (2012-03-09 EUR/USD analysis)

The EUR is probably going to have big movements. Let's keep track of its price movements and see which way it will break.

Even higher volatility ? (2012-03-08 VIX analysis)

Looks like the volatility index will be surging for some time.

Short update on Suga Int. (2012-03-06 0912 analysis)

The index plunged yesterday, and it seems like it is still not able to break out the resistant zone yet. Today let's have a short update on the small-cap stock I mentioned before (0912.HK).
















The stock price reached the level 2.12 mentioned last time, and is not able to surge further. It should be going down and reach the up-trend line support at around 1.90. And it will be in this range for a while, let's keep an eye on whether it could break out a lot.

Chance for breakout ? (2012-03-05 HSI analysis)

Missing last week's stock markets seems not to be a big regret, with the indexes moving sideways due to different news announced each day.

Hang Seng Index was basically moving within the range 21,000 - 21,600 and it could not break the strong resistant at 21,600. However, given that the index did not immediately plunge after reaching this upper boundary, we have to further investigate that whether it could break out.

Gold experienced a sudden slump on 29 Feb, dropping over $100 on one single trading day. It got supported at around 1680 where the Moving Averages lie.

Daily chart of HSI:

As trend-lines and Fibonacci levels could not give much hints about the index, I have added the Ichimoku indicators on the chart, though it does not look too useful on this chart either.

HSI is still within the two horizontal lines ranged from 21,000 to 21,600. It is consolidating at this area which I treated as a strong resistant area before.

However, normally if there is strong resistant force, the index would fall immediately after reaching this zone. This is obviously not the case here.

Therefore, we will have to further observe whether the index has gained enough strength to break out this level. To confirm break out we would need breaking volume for confirmation as well. It might happen this week.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Ichimoku on weekly chart seems to be more meaningful. The index is currently within the cloud and has reached the top boundary of the cloud.

The current cloud is a very narrow one, breaking it seems to be possible. But again, we will have to confirm it during its breakout.

If breakout is confirmed, it will continues its surge to around 22,900 and previous high at around 24,200. This would mean another 1500-2500 points rocket.

If it is resisted and starts dropping, it would move towards 20,000.

So this is another critical week.

Important Economic data this week (2012-03-04)

6-Mar (Tuesday)
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}

7-Mar (Wednesday)
08:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 2.3% from 2.5%}

8-Mar (Thursday)
04:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
07:50 Japan GDP Annualized {Forecast: Rise to -0.6% from -2.3%}
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.2% from 5.1%}
20:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision
22:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}

9-Mar (Friday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 3.4% from 4.5%}
15:00 Germany CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Drop}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}