PIGS (2010-04-30 EURUSD analysis)

Greece's credit rating downgraded to junk by S&P, the G in "PIGS" first led the S's credit rating to be cut too. It would probably be a matter of time for the P and I being downgraded. Euro would definitely fluctuate a lot, and the most possible way is of course downwards.

We can see that EUR is beautifully supported by the 61.8%-projection and a little RSI divergence. We could expect a short rebound followed by a greater drop afterwards. Once it breaks 1.3118, the next support would be as low as around 1.30.



Good luck everyone.

Supported (2010-04-26 HSI analysis)

Today HSI opened high after a large plunge last Friday. We can see that the index is supported at the fibonacci line and the bottom line of the triangle. It goes right back into the triangle today and we could expect a further increase to around 22,000 in the following days. However, the direction after this short rebound is yet to be confirmed.



Looking at the size of triangle, we may expect confirmation would appear in mid of May, which might be triggered by election in UK (HSBC would be leadingt the whole market). In beginning of May we could long straddle to speculate large change at one side.

Further HSI surge (2010-04-21 HSI analysis)

With the volcano eruption in Iceland, the stock markets are just as unclear as having clouds of ashes above our heads. News like rocketed profits in iBanks or frauds in them could lead to different ways. While we might not know which outweighs which, we could rely on technical analysis. Let's see the HSI daily chart.



Personally, fibs is one of my favourite indicators. We can see that HSI rebounded after touching the 61.8%-line of red fibs. With the support of the uptrend line, we could predict a further price surge.

Gold Opportunity (2010-04-18 Gold analysis)

After SEC charged Goldman Sachs with fraud, this most profitable company in Wall Street dropped 13% last Friday and led to a plunge in US and Europe stock markets. Not only did the stocks fall, but also the Gold price turned downwards after reaching the highest in two quarters.

I have used fibs projections and found that actually there is a great support by the 50%-line at around 1,126.76.



There is a very large support here and the price is more likely to be pushed upwards. This would be a "gold" opportunity to get some long positions for it.

A test for Sterling (2010-04-14 GBPUSD analysis)

The finally-confirmed save to Greece had led Euro to rally. Sterling followed as a result of surge in exports as well as trade deficit in February. However, Soros, having positions of betting the pound to decline, said UK had the room for currency devaluation in order to cut trade deficit. It is due to the financial crisis during which the UK government provided aids to UK banks and that net debt rocketed. So we might ask whether it would really happen, and when?



After using fibonacci projection, we could see that sterling is now resisted by the 100%-line. It seems to be a great obstacle for further rise of GBP. Also, the upper trendline may further prevent the pound to go any further. So here might be a test for this rally-wave, and it would be better for investors not to do any risky gambling here.

This is the short term technical analysis. In my opinion, due to such high debt ratio (to GDP), the next government might really consider a devaluation to rebalance it. So after the election in early May, pound might decline and Soros can gain lots from it.

Tragedy (2010-04-11 PLNUSD analysis)

Besides the chaos in Thailand, there was a tragedy for Poland. A plane carrying several important governors including the President, central bank governor and the Army Chief crashed in Russia. All 96 people were killed during the incident. Although a board member assured that the tragedy would not affect zloty, the currency in Poland, we could not ignore any chance for a drop in zloty due to the unstable financial situation and power distribution in Poland government.



In the chart, we could see that the price for PLN just touched the base of ichimoku cloud. We could predict a large resistance due to not only the ichimoku but also the plane accident. Further worsened by the triangle, I predict that the price for PLN would drop as low as 2.7373 which is the 38.2%-fibonacci level line.

Shipping Sector (2010-04-08 2866.HK analysis)

Holiday ended yesterday and HSI went up to over 21,900. DJI fell yesterday, but I believe the uptrend would continue afterwards. Today I have analyzed a stock CSCL (2866.HK).

Why would I choose to analyze this stock? Firstly, I found some interesting pattern for this stock. Also, I discovered that while HSI was rising everyday, this sector (shipping) actually did not rise much. Comparing with the other stocks in shipping sector, such as China Cosco (1919.HK) and Pacific Basin (2343.HK), I found a greater potential of big rise for CSCL.



Seeing the above chart, CSCL price was fluctuating around the 23.6%-line (shown in blue dotted line) using the maximum price in 2007. We can see that there is an obvious pennaut. When comparing with performance of other stocks in Hong Kong, I would predict a great rise after passing the triangle. The potential rise would be to more than 3.6 which is near the previous high.

Holiday Ends. (2010-04-05 DJI analysis)

Holiday Ends. Did you enjoy it? After a few days of break, how would the market go? Continued boost? or finally resisted and direction changed?

Let's see the graph for Dow Jones Industrial Index.



According to the ichimoku cloud, it is clearly bullish. However, as there is quite a distance from the cloud, it would probably inverse to shorten the space between. To try to seek for answer, I had drawn a fibonacci line. We can see that the resistance is up at 11253.31. So we could predict a further upwards until around 11250.