Important Economics Data this week (2010-10-31)

A rate decision week, together with the QE2.0 announcement by Fed. Watch out guys.

1-Nov (Mon)
China PMI Manufacturing (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}
US ISM Manufacturing (OCT) {Forecast: Drop by 0.4}
Bank of Japan Minutes

2-Nov (Tue)
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}

3-Nov (Wed)
US FOMC Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ; 3Q) {Forecast: Increase to 0.5% from -0.3%}

4-Nov (Thur)
Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}

5-Nov (Fri)
Canada Unemployment Rate (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}
Canada Net Change in Employment (OCT) {Forecast: Increase to 10K from -6.6K}
US Change in Non-farm Payrolls (OCT)
US Unemployment rate (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}

JPHK Update (2010-10-29)

I'm optimistic to US GDP, but still have to be aware of the QE2 announced next week.

Long

Buy 4000 shares of 3335.HK @ 1.45
Buy 5000 shares of 3813.HK @ 1.23

One more to add into watch-list (2010-10-28 Alltronics Holdings Ltd analysis)

Well there is another stock which worths putting under your watch-list: Alltronics Holdings Ltd. (0833.HK). The principal activities of the Group are the manufacturing and trading of electronic products, plastic moulds, plastic and other components for electronic products and the manufacturing and trading of biodiesel products.

Net income in the first half of 2010 increased by 58.4% to HK$6.58million, with dividend of $0.015 per share. The turnover of the Group for the year ended 31 December 2009 had decreased by 9.6% to HK$449 million, as compared to HK$497 million for the year 2008.

I would expect a more increased revenue in the second half of 2010 as there were more demands on electronic products for like expansions of companies and factories, international events and so on.

Technically...



It just broke the previous high 2 days ago, but unfortunately fell back underneath yesterday. However, we should still keep an eye on it, and if there is any breakout, the potential profits would be huge. As we can see, there is no any technical resistant until 2.45. So it could surge from 1.14 to 2.45 which is more than a double! If there is really breakout, the rise would not take long too. So let's wait for any signal.

JPHK Update (2010-10-28)

China market (2010-10-28 SSEC analysis)

The sudden slump in HSI was really unpredictable. We might say that it might be due to QE2 by US, but it doesn't need a reason for big jumps or falls anyway. Nevertheless, it was China market which led the HSI upwards, and yesterday it was again China market which pulled HSI down. So I did analysis on the chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC).



Above is the daily chart of SSEC, we could clearly found the rapid and crazy surge in Early October with an increased trading volume. In these few days, the index was moving in a narrow uptrend channel. Although it plunged greatly yesterday, the index managed to close above the 10-day SMA and within the channel. The condition does not look too bad, at least until this moment.

If SSEC could go back upwards, the resistance level is at around 3100, and then 3200 which is the peak level in April 2010.

If SSEC breaks down, then it would be a nightmare as there is no support level until 2700. So keep track of SSEC rather than focusing on the Hong Kong market.

JPHK Update (2010-10-27)

Well, HSI broke the uptrend channel. But I would wait 2 days more for any confirmation. Hopefully it was only a false breakdown.

What's it up to? (2010-10-27 HSI analysis)

Above chart is the daily chart of Hang Seng Index (HSI). After more-than-1-month surge along the green channel, it has been moving sideways these few days. MACD has been dropping after the bearish cross which is not a good signal, and the index touched the bottom line of the channel today. Upper bollinger band is getting flatter, showing a sideway market.

I would expect slight movements these three days, and the GDP announcement by US on Friday would be a trigger point for larger volatility next week. News traders could probably buy HSI call on Friday as the GDP is expected to have increase in growth.

JPHK Update (2010-10-26)

I should have bought more of China Longyuan 0916.HK as it has really low risk.

JPHK (2010-10-26)

Long 1000 shares of 0916.HK @ 8.14

Low risk stock again (2010-10-26 China Longyuan Power analysis)

Everyone please be reminded that United Kingdom will be announcing its GDP today, which is expected to drop. It will not affect the stock market in Hong Kong today, but probably will have impact on tomorrow's movement. Crazy rallies these days might keep encouraging you to buy buy and buy.

These days energy stocks were often among the Top 10 percentage rise, so I checked some of the stocks in this industry. Below is the daily chart of China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Ltd. (0916.HK) which focuses on wind farms. The Company design, develop, manage and operate wind farms, and sell the electricity generated by their wind farms to their sole customers — the local grid companies.



Technically, the price is narrowing in a pennant. After touching the bottom line yesterday, it bounced. Although there is still no signal for breakout or breakdown, it worths buying at this moment. Current price is 8.11, level below the bottom line of the pennant is our stop loss level, which is at around 8.0. Potential loss is 1.5%. We could even lower the stop loss price to around 5% loss so we can confirm that it is not a false breakdown.

As it follows the pennant, then at least it would rise to 8.35, which is treated as the first resistant. We could sell some of shares at this point.

If breakout confirms, it could go up to 10. So risk is not high for this stock and is a pretty good chance to make 15-20% profits.

JPHK Update (2010-10-25)

Still watching 3813.HK and 3335.HK.

Crazy person betting on crazy stock (2010-10-25 DBA telecom analysis)

It's almost the end of October. There will be several influencing economic data such as GDP this week, together with the maturity of index futures and options, we could expect a higher volatility arriving.

I have found another worth-watching small stock today: 3335.HK - DBA Telecom. This stock is quite interesting though. Here is some of the basic backgroud of the company:

The Group is principally engaged in the design, manufacture and sales of telecommunication equipment and related products under the brandname "締邦" (DEBAN), self-service business and agency business for telecommunication products in the PRC. The Group’s revenue is generated from three main categories, namely, manufacturing business, self-service business and agency business for telecommunication products :

(i)	Manufacturing business: the design, manufacture and sales of telecommunication equipment and related products.
(ii)	Self-service business: sales of telecommunication payment cards through smart cards vending terminals and promote, design, produce and publish advertisement.
(iii)	Agency business for telecommunication products: to act as an agent of the suppliers to sell telecommunication products to cooperative distribution networks.

In early September, it announced an annual increase of 34.9% on gross profits , and 52.72% growth of net income.

With the snowing demand of telecommunication in China, being the top5 telecommunication in PRC, DBA has great potential to grow bigger. Recently, the release of iPhone4 might also help lift the market of telecommunication, and these companies can benefit from it too.

The fundamental supports a BUY of this stock. How about the technical one? Let's see.



DBA was only listed since 2006. The above chart is all the prices it has since listing. After going up to 1.80-1.86, it fell like roller coaster to as low as 0.4-0.5. Then it started moving upwards again, but the volatility was not an usual one. It is really hard for any normal people to accept such high volatility without any pain in their hearts.

But I found that, when the price were dropping from late 2007 to early 2009, volume was not high. This might show us that the corporate investors were not selling their shares. The price was lifted up again in 2009, the large volume at the range of 0.5-1.0 showed that these investors probably were buying some more shares as well.

Together with the IPO price of 1.26, they should have an average price of around 0.9 per share. Obviously, their aim would not be only double or triple. Usually they can have at least 5-6 times growth when playing around with small stocks. I would expect a breakout of the green line and even breakout of the highest price 1.86. Just keep an eye on this stock, we could buy if breakout of green line confirms.

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One more thing on this stock, I found that the company had a record of manipulating data during IPO. Also, it had high net income but did not pay dividend, this might somehow make us suspect whether the net income was true or not. Therefore, I do not recommend a long-term holding of this stock. Just follow the trend and gain the bit and leave.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-10-24)

25/10 (Mon)
US Existing Home Sales (SEP) {Forecast: Increase by 0.17M}

26/10 (Tue)
UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ; 3Q) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.8%}
US Consumer Confidence (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 1}

27/10 (Wed)
German Consumer Price Index (YoY; 3Q) {Forecast: Unchange}
Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY; 3Q) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.2%}
US Durable Goods Order (SEP) {Forecast: Increase by 3.5%}
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}

28/10 (Thur)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
German Unemployment Change (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 10K}

29/10 (Fri)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM; AUG) {Forecast: Increase by 0.4%}
US Gross Domestic Product (Annualized; 3Q) {Forecast: Increase by 0.5%}
US U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1}

US Stock analysis kick-off (2010-10-24 AAPL analysis)

I think I have to start learning to analyze stocks in different stock markets in the globe, but not only limited to Hong Kong market. I have picked a well-known stock in US, Apple Inc.



Starting from August 2010, the price has been moving upwards along the green uptrend channel. It broke major resistant in early September, and the resistance area became a support zone as shown in late September and early October.

On 18-Oct, AAPL reached a new high again. However, an interesting candle appeared. It was a candle with long lower shadow and short body, and with very little upper shadow. This is sometimes called the "hanging man", which is a signal of a lack of power to surge further. Apparently, the price dropped after the "hanging man".

Price of AAPL would probably get back to somewhere near the lower line of the green channel, and is going to test the support. Once it breaks, the next support zone would be at 272.42-278.7.

JPHK Update (2010-10-22)

3813.HK was not doing well. Be patient and wait for any possible signals.

Climbing higher? (2010-10-22 Pou Sheng Int'l anlaysis)

Here I found another small-cap stock with graet potential to surge, Pou Sheng International (Holdings) Limited, 3813.HK

The Company is an investment holding company. The principal activities of the Group are (i) manufacturing and sales of OEM footwear, (ii) retailing of sportswear, (iii) distribution of licensed products and (iv) operation and management of sportswear malls.
{from http://www.aastocks.com}

Let's look at its daily chart:


The stock plunged severely in March and April 2010. Starting from May 10, the price has been moving along the lime uptrend channel, and just broke an important resisting area. Although it is still within the channel, I am quite optimistic at a further breakout and probably reaching 1.42.

Another clue is the volume during the slump in 2010. The price slided too quickly that volume was not high at that period. Corporate investors could definitely not able to get rid of all the shares they had. Instead of selling at the lowest price, I believe they would try to lift the price again so as to let them sell all their shares to make bigger money.

We'd better keep an eye on it to see whether it can move further.

JPHK Update (2010-10-21)

Nice Jump by 2382.HK, target 2.24.

What a market

Stocks Rebound on Earnings; Dollar Slumps

By Rita Nazareth and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - Oct 20, 2010 9:11 PM GMT+0100

The dollar slid the most against the euro since July and reached a 15-year low versus the yen amid speculation the Federal Reserve will pump more cash into the economy. Boeing Co. and Yahoo! Inc. helped lead stocks higher after earnings beat estimates, while energy shares and oil rose.

The dollar snapped a three-day rally against the euro, losing 1.6 percent to $1.3950 versus the common currency, and sank to as low as 80.85 yen. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 1.1 percent to 1,178.17 at 4 p.m. in New York after slumping 1.6 percent yesterday for its biggest drop in two months. Oil rebounded from its largest drop since February, returning above $81 a barrel. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped three basis points to 3.89 percent.

The Fed’s Beige Book business survey today said the U.S. economy grew at a “modest pace” with little sign of acceleration last month, fueling speculation central bankers may undertake further measures to support growth. Boeing and Yahoo joined 84 percent of S&P 500 companies that have topped analyst earnings estimates since Oct. 7, boosting optimism that profits are improving even as the economic recovery slows.

“The tenor of the Beige Book confirms that the economy remains stuck in a low gear, while the good news is that there’s only limited downside,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $63 billion. “With U.S. growth already weak and the Fed poised to pump more money into the system, there’s additional downward pressure on the dollar.”

Dollar Slides

The dollar weakened against 15 of 16 major peers, losing at least 1.5 percent versus currencies including the Australian dollar and Swedish krona. The U.S. currency has depreciated more than 3 percent versus all 16 major counterparts since the end of August, falling more than 10 percent versus the euro and Australian dollar, as speculation grows that the Fed will buy more Treasuries in a tactic known as quantitative easing.

“It’s quantitative easing and the dollar debasement that’s the predominant story,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC World Markets in London.

U.S. stocks advanced following yesterday’s slide triggered by China’s interest-rate increase and concern banks will need to buy back more bad mortgages.

‘Sky Is Not Falling’

Boeing rallied 3.4 percent after reporting profit of $1.12 a share, more than the average estimate of $1.07 in a Bloomberg survey. Yahoo rose 2 percent after the most-visited U.S. Web portal late yesterday said third-quarter net income more than doubled to $396.1 million, or 29 cents a share. Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. home lender, climbed 4.3 percent after saying it’s “eager” to return cash to shareholders following a record quarterly profit.

“We’ve had a variety of company earnings reports which indicate that the sky is not falling,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $350 billion. “Yesterday was a dark day for the market because of macro factors. Today it will be company management teams’ turn to lead the way again.”

The pound lost 0.8 percent against the euro and weakened against 10 of its 16 most-traded peers after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, voted 7-1-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent and the bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($314 billion). Andrew Sentance pushed for an increase in the rate to 0.75 percent, while Adam Posen voted to boost the asset-purchase plan by 50 billion pounds.

‘Potent Weapon’

King said in a speech yesterday that some gauges of U.K. inflation are “extremely subdued,” signaling that he may be open to stepping up bond purchases. He also said that monetary policy remains a “potent weapon.” Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne detailed the deepest budget cuts ever in Britain, eliminating 500,000 public-sector jobs and imposing a levy on banks to extract the “maximum sustainable” revenue, outlining plans in Parliament today to virtually eliminate the 156 billion-pound deficit.

Three stocks rose for every two that fell in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which increased 0.3 percent. Peugeot climbed 0.9 percent as the carmaker said quarterly revenue grew and raised its full-year outlook. BASF rose 2.6 percent in Germany after the world’s biggest chemicals maker said recovering markets helped lift its third-quarter profit beyond analysts’ estimates.

The yield on Ireland’s 10-year bond increased seven basis points to 6.31 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between Portuguese and German 10-year bonds increased 11 basis points to 3.29 percentage points, while the Greek-German yield gap was one basis points narrower at 6.58 percentage points.

Commodities Rally

Corn futures rose for the first time in six sessions as a weaker dollar improved prospects for grain exports from the U.S., the world’s largest grower and shipper. Corn for December delivery rose 5 percent to $5.735 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after falling 5.7 percent during the prior five sessions.

Oil advanced 2.9 percent to $81.77 a barrel after falling 4.3 percent yesterday, the biggest decline since Feb. 4.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $8.20, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $1,344.20 on the Comex in New York. Copper rebounded from the biggest drop in three months, with December futures climbing 3.6 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $3.7935 a pound in New York.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net

JPHK Update (2010-10-20)

Gotta keep an eye on these stocks as they are not looking good.

Leading bank (2010-10-20 HSBC analysis)

DJIA dropped by 1.48% and both S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ fell by more than 1.5%. China raised its benchmark rate. These were all bad news to the stock market in Hong Kong. So corrections probably continue after a rebounce yesterday.

Today let's look at the leading bank, HSBC (0005.HK).



As you can see, HSBC was trading in a converging range, forming the pennaut in lime. Few days ago there was a breakout, but it turned out to be a false one as it could not stand above the resistant for 3 days. After reaching the support line two days ago, the price had little rebounce yesterday along with the whole market.

A breakdown is more likely to occur given such bad market conditions. If it happens, fibs level could give us some hints about how much it would fall. The 61.8%-level looks weak, so we may expect the price to drop to 50%-level, which is at around 76.9. This is the first support of the stock.

MACD shows a downward trend which aligns with the analysis above. Be careful everyone. This correction could be a long one.

Bad news to HK? (2010-10-20)

China Raises Benchmark Rates for First Time Since 2007

By Bloomberg News - Oct 19, 2010 4:18 PM GMT+0100

China unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007 ahead of data that may show inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost two years. Stocks and commodities fell.

The one-year lending rate will increase to 5.56 percent from 5.31 percent, effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The deposit rate will increase to 2.5 percent from 2.25 percent.

Crude oil, stocks in Europe and U.S. index futures dropped on concern the engine of the global recovery will slow as China’s policy makers seek to curb lending and prevent a property bubble. Higher interest rates may encourage inflows of speculative capital from abroad, complicating management of the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

“The interest rate hike is beyond my expectation,” said Wang Tao, UBS AG’s Beijing-based economist. “It shows the government is increasingly worried about inflation. This is the beginning of a series of interest-rate hikes next year.’’

Inflation may have climbed to 3.6 percent in September even as growth in the world’s fastest-growing major economy slowed, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

Officials have in recent weeks extended curbs on property, including tougher down-payment requirements and more restrictions on home loans, in a clampdown after record price gains this year. The central bank raised the reserve requirements for six banks for a two-month period, three people with knowledge of the matter said last week.

JPHK Update (2010-10-19)

Low Risk? (2010-10-19 GBP analysis)

Above is the 4-Hour chart of GBP. The price has been moving upwards along the lime uptrend channel for more than 1 month. After reaching as high as 1.610, the pounds fell to around 1.588 currently. But it is still within the channel.

There is a bullish cross forming at the MACD, but we still need more time to confirm a successful cross. If a cross is confirmed, GBP would keep its rally along the channel, and would probably test the last high in mid-August (1.613).

Looking at the MACD, even if GBP broke the channel, it would not plunge too much before a rebound appears. Risk would not be too high to long the pounds.

JPHK Update (2010-10-18)

Correction began?

Correction (2010-10-18 HSI analysis)

Hang Seng Index was up around 600 points last week. It was a good week for everyone. After DJIA broke the resistant, it dropped back into the uptrend channel. It looks like a corrections would be arriving soon.

Daily Chart:

What daily chart shows is nothing but resistant. The index is currently facing strong obstacle, which is the combination of long-term fibs level and short-term pitchfork. MACD has reached a pretty high level, though it is still moving upwards, the power seems much weaker. It is more likely for consolidations or corrections.

Weekly chart:

Weekly chart gives little hope to us. 20-day SMA just touched 50-day SMA from below. A cross would be even better, but there is still a chance that the index falls and the 20-day SMA drops as well. Then it would become a failed bullish cross formation.

Hang Seng Index is more likely to be under consolidation or correction in the coming week, led by that of Dow Jones Industrial Averages! Be careful everyone!

Important Economic Data this week (2010-10-17)

17/10 (Sunday)
New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY; 3Q) {Forecast: Drop by 0.3%}

19/10 (Tuesday)
Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
US Housing Starts (Sep) {Forecast: Drop by 15K}

20/10 (Wednesday)
Germany Producer Prices (YoY; Sep) {Forecast: Increase by 0.6%}
Bank of England Minutes

21/10 (Thursday)
China Consumer Price Index (YoY; Sep) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1%}
China GDP YTD (YoY; 3Q) {Forecast: Drop by 0.6%}
China Retail Sales (YoY; Sep) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1%}
UK Retail Sales (YoY; Sep) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1%}

22/10 (Friday)
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY; Sep) {Forecast: Increase by 0.2%}

JPHK Update (2010-10-15)

A stock added

JPHK

Long 1638.HK 5000shares @ 1.64

Almost time? (2010-10-15 Kaisa Group analysis)

Today I found a small stock which looks like it would have a crazy surge soon. Kaisa Group (1638.HK) is a property company in the property development, property investment, property management and project consultancy businesses, mainly in Mainland China.

From the daily chart above, we can see that the price has been moving in a short range for almost half year. Such short range tells us that corporate investors are collecting shares, and sometimes there was abnormal large volume, like that in early October.

At this moment, all the moving averages converge and the price hit the long term resistant. A breakout of the resistant could be an excuse for the price to be lifted. It is almost the time for a big boost.

I would put it into my watchlist and probably add it into JPHK. First target is 2.25.

JPHK Update (2010-10-14)

Gogogo!

Crazy.. (2010-10-14 AUD analysis)

Aussie has been surging crazily these days. Let's see the 4-H chart above. Starting from August, price ran up along a uptrend channel. MACD even shows that the surge has not ended yet. It breaks the previous high 0.9915 and breakout is forming.

Though MACD tells us AUD is probably still having the momentum to rise, we might have to be really careful to trade this because the risk is getting higher as it approaches 1.0.

JPHK Update (2010-10-13)

Not looking good (2010-10-13 DJI analysis)

The daily chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average is not looking so well.

Firstly, the index reached the upper line of the uptrend channel, and there would be a short-term correction followed.

Secondly, MACD just showed a bearish cross at high level, which is a strong indicator telling us that the index no longer has momentum to continue its surge.

Thirdly, by using fibs projection, DJIA just rised as much as the boost last time. It is time for corrections.

Slump in volume further enhances my view. In short-term, the index would plunge. First support is at 10720, which is the last peak. If using fibs projection, it could slump till as low as 10300. Good luck!

JPHK Update (2010-10-12)

So far so good. CCB closed at 6.99, which is still above the resistant line. Good news for CCB holders.

3 Pin Bars showing breakout (2010-10-12 CCB analysis)

Above is the daily chart of China Construction Bank (0939.HK). Price closed at 6.98 yesterday, which was above the one-year high. We could see that there were 3 pin bars with long upper shadow before the breakout yesterday. These pin bars were also good indicators on breakout.

MACD is still at low-level, which shows there is not much obstacle on the breakout. The next resistant would be at around 7.46.

JPHK Update (2010-10-11)

Trend stops (2010-10-11 EUR analysis)

A new week again. It is really interesting to read what the nations are doing on currencies, especially US kept on forcing China to appreciate Yuan but China rejected.

Anyway, let's move on to technical analysis. Recently, USD has been weakening and relatively many of the other currencies including Japanese Yen strengthened. Below are Euro in two different time frames.

4-hour:

In this chart, clearly Euro has been following the channel and couldn't stop surging. MACD shows a bullish cross indicating a continuation on the trend. Therefore, we can expect Euro to keep its momentum in short-term.

Daily:

Daily chart shows a different story. MACD is going up far too high for further crazy rise. By using fibs projection, we can find a strong resistant at 1.41. This might the top for this round, aligning with a possible bearish signal shown in MACD. It might be a good short zone at levels around 1.41.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-10-10)

12/10 (Tue)
Germany Consumer Price Index (SEP) {Forecast: Unchanged}
UK Consumer Price Index (SEP) {Forecast: Unchanged}
US FOMC Meeting Minutes

13/10 (Wed)
UK Jobless Claims Change (SEP) {Forecast: Decrease to zero from 2.3K}

15/10 (Fri)
US Advanced Retail Sales (SEP) {Forecast: Unchanged}
US Consumer Price Index (SEP) {Forecast: Increase to 1.2% from 1.1%}

JPHK Update (2010-10-08)

Have to keep an eye on 2382.HK as it has dropped back to the upper line of the wedge, hope the wedge could be strong enough to support the price.

Resisted and drop (2010-10-08 Hang Seng Bank analysis)

Today we would look at another leading bank in Hong Kong --- Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK). After a month of crazy surge, it reached the year high which is definitely a strong resistant. Other than that, MACD and EMA reach the resisant too. Volume decreased also.

These factors combined together, making the price impossible to break the resistant. It would be more likely to fall afterwards.

JPHK Update (2010-10-07)

Today is not a good day right?

Other than China Cosco (2010-10-07 CSCL analysis)

As I mentioned in last post, 1919.HK has surged too much, making it not worthy enough to buy. I have found another similar stock, which also broke resistant yesterday, and there is still some room to further surge.



Above is daily chart of 2866.HK CSCL. As we could see, it just broke the green pennant to the last high (the starting point of the pennant). This resistant stopped the price from going to a higher level. However, mostly breakout of pennant would lead the stock price to levels higher than the beginning of the flag. So I predict that CSCL would continue till the next fibs level at around 3.34. Potential return would be around 10%, which is much higher than that of China Cosco (1919.HK).

JPHK Update (2010-10-06)

JPHK Long stocks

Long 0208.HK 5000shares @ 1.40
Long 2000.HK 4000shares @ 1.70
Long 0710.HK 2000shares @ 2.73

Unfortunately, 1919.HK has already surged too much...

Testing the resistant (2010-10-05 China Cosco analysis)

Above is the daily chart of China Cosco (1919.HK). It is currently moving along the uptrend line and is testing the strong resistance area. MACD and EMA showed a bullish cross, and definitely gives momentum for the price to surge through the area. It would probably reach the next fibs level at around 9.95, led by the market.

Once the resistant breaks (with confirmation), definitely we should have no hesitation to buy this stock.

JPHK Update (2010-10-05)

Unfortunately, 2000.HK has fallen below the triangle and we still need some more time to decide the movements of 0710.HK.

Gaining power (2010-10-04 0710.HK analysis)

One more stock was put under my watchlist. Above is the daily chart for 0710.HK (Varitronix International). The price still could not break the resistance area after five trials, but it seems to have gained enough power (in terms of shares for corporate investors) to be lifted. Once the area breaks, the next resistance level would be at around 3.6-3.8.

Today the price reached the 20SMA and could not break it. However, the increased volume and the low-level MACD/EMA are together helping the price break the SMA, and would possible lead the price to new high above the resistance area. Keep an eye on it, and it definitely worths buying once the price breaks that strong area. Potential return would be at around 20% within several weeks.

JPHK Update (2010-10-04)

I am still looking for any good stocks to buy...

Play safe

2000.HK is currently at 1.68, which reaches the supportive bottom level or the triangle. To play safe, it is better to wait for any breakout signals.

Hang Seng Index surged to as high as 22734, but then dropped following the poor performance in European markets, and closed at 22617. As I wrote in my last post, it would probably reach 22914 and plunge, so there are still 300 points to go.

Surge followed by Correction (2010-10-03 HSI analysis)

A new month starts. Traditionally September was not a good month for stock markets, but it wasn't the case for the previous month. Hang Seng Index broke the long-term downtrend line and kept rising. Let's see the daily chart below.



Currently, HSI is following the narrow green wedge. Obviously, the bullish momentum is really great, with the rising of MACD and EMA and the volume. It reaches the previous high in April, and I expect it to break it and reach the next fibs level at 22913. The high level of MACD and EMA is a big concern which might stop the index from rising.

I would anticipate a further rise in the few days, but when those economic data which affects the stock markets starts to pop out, a correction would occur.

Important Economic Data (2010-10-03)

It would be another fluctuating week led by those data. Stay aware, especially the yen as Japan would more likely to weaken the yen through market intervention which they are not allowed for 6 years. They might use the rate to further weaken it.

5/10 (Tue)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Increase by 0.25%}
Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite

6/10 (Wed)
Europe GDP s.a. (QoQ; 2Q)

7/10 (Thur)
Australia Employment Change (Sep) {Forecast: Less Positive}
Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) {Forecast: Unchange}
Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
Bank of England Asset Purchase Target
European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}

8/10 (Fri)
Canada net change in employment (Sep) {Forecast: Less Positive}
Canada Unemployment Rate (Sep) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.1%}
US Change in Non-farm Pay-roll (Sep) {Forecast: Change to positive from negative}
US Unemployment Rate (Sep) {Foreast: Increase by 1%}

Worth-buying stock (2010-10-01 Sim Tech analysis)

Today is holiday in China, but not in UK. I just had my first lecture on Technical Analysis, and it was amazing. I will probably start getting into wave theory like Elliot which I am not good at, and would start using it after some time.

So I discovered another worth-buying stock: Sim Tech (2000.HK). Though it is safer to wait for longer time, I am kind of confident about a potential short-term rise.



We could see the price basically has been following the triangle in lime. After surging to as high as 2.48 in April 2010, it plunged and we might ask whether it was the end and whether the corporate investors were selling. The Bearish rejection in August probably told us the answer.

When analyzing small stocks, we would have to think like we are corporate investors, and only by guessing what they are thinking can we win. We are not going to win them, we are just trying to sit in the same boat with them and grab profits.

Back to the stock. The bearish rejection in August showed that these investors were trying how high the price could get up to. Clearly there were many retails investors who bought it at the level 2.0-2.5, and they have been having a hard time seeing the value of their values getting lower and lower. Therefore, they would just sell all their shares when breaking-even or even losing a bit. This is the major obstacle for the stock to surge greatly.

To eliminate this resistant power, the corporate investors would have to set high volatility to scare them away. Pushing the price upwards is one of the many methods to get rid of such resistant. When it's the time, the price will be lifted without much obstacles and corporate investors can gain easily.

Sim Tech is clearly one of the stocks which are being "played" by corporate investors. It seems like its almost time to boost the price. The convergence of SMAs could probably give a reason (or excuse) for the rocket, just like the previous times.

I would add this stock into my portfolio on Monday, of course depending on how it perform. Try to wait till closing before buying it, so it would be less risky.