Important Economic Data this week (2012-05-27)

29-May (Tuesday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Increase}

30-May (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia Retail Sales {Forecast: Decrease to 0.2% from 0.9%}

31-May (Thursday)
13:45 Switzerland GDP {Forecast: Drop to 0.8% from 1.3%}
15:55 Germany Unemployment Change {Forecast: Drop to -7K from 19K}
20:15 US ADP Employment Change
20:30 US GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.9% from 2.2%}

1-Jun (Friday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Drop to 52 from 53.3}
20:30 Canada GDP {Forecast: Rise to 1.9%}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Rise to 150K from 115K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
 

Silver's bottomed? (2012-05-22 Silver analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Silver (XAG). After crazy plunges, it seems like it would be going to gain a bit.

Where are the supports? (2012-05-21 HSI analysis)

Last week the global stock market plunged quite hardly due to situations in Europe. Hong Kong stock market was slumping even worse compared to other major stock markets. Basically it has dropped below many major support lines and currently there is no other good support levels.

The Dollar rose quite a lot, rising from 80.70 on Monday to as high as over 81.70 on Friday. Commodities plummeted in the beginning of the week. Gold price dropped below 1530 on Wednesday, but was able to gained and closed at 1590 on Friday.

This week there isn't much economic data that has significant influence on the markets. The most critical one would be Germany GDP to be revealed on Thursday (HKT).

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Daily chart of HSI:
 















On this chart, obviously the index has plunged blow many good supports. Now it is at the position of "open air" whether we can hardly find good support.

Good news is that we can see that there is only one candle outside of those areas. If the index is able to climb up above the two supports, we can treat it as false breakdown.

Nevertheless, the Pitchfork tells us that the index is currently under a bearish trend. It may have rebound but overall it should be heading downwards.

The level to be concerned of would be 19200. If HSI can close above this level in these two days, then the situation isn't too bad.

Otherwise, we can expect a further quick and hard plummet on daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, after reaching a major resistant at around 21000 three weeks ago, the index plunged hardly, crossing all 10-, 20- and 50-week simple moving averages in a sudden.

We can see that an ultimate support given by a pretty long-term up-trend line is at around 17400. On the other hand, a Fibonacci retracement level also provides support at 17800.

Therefore, we can expect a very strong support at this zone. If the index drops to this level and starts to seek support, it would be an extremely good opportunity.

For the upside, 19500 provides slight resistant, and stronger resistant would be at 20000, due to both psychological and 50-week moving average.

Good luck to all of you. I might not be able to update the blog that often because I have to spend time on studying CFA Level 2 examination held in early June.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-05-20)

22-May (Tuesday)
11:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation
16:30 UK CPI {Forecat: Drop to 3.1% from 3.5%}

23-May (Wednesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
16:30 Bank of England Minutes
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise}

24-May (Thursday)
13:00 Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 Germany GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}
15:30 Germany PMI {Forecast: Increase}
16:30 UK GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Rise to 0.5% from -4.2%}

Time to rebound (2012-05-17 BOC analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Bank of China (3988.HK). It looks like it has reached an extremely strong support zone after several days of severe plunges and it will undergo a rebound. This might be a hint of a rebound in the stock market as well.

Bullish Dollar (2012-05-16 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (DXY). It looks like it has reached a major resistant level and may retreat a bit. But in general it is definitely in bullish trend.

Last week was not a good week to many investors, with quite a lot of negative news. There might be even more regulations to investment banks on their risk management after the great loss by JP Morgan.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) plunged hardly last week, breaking down and closing below 20,000 first time this year after breaking out this level in early January.

There will be quite a lot of economic data revealed this week, including GDPs from several countries especially Italy and Spain, and CPIs from several countries too. We can expect that the market would be greatly affected on Italy and Spain GDP figures, which are expected to be worse than previous figures (but keep in mind that how the market moves depends on whether the real number beats or is beaten by the estimation, not just the data itself).

Let's see how this week will go.

Daily chart of HSI:
 















The index broke down the medium-term up-trend support line shown in orange, as well as the 23.8% Fibonacci projection level. This is definitely not a good sign.

There is a shorter term down-trend line which might give a bit support at around 19,600. HSI will probably rebound after reaching this level.

Other than these, the only things we can see from the chart would be a widening trading range, with the current resistant at around 20,400. Is it telling us that there would be a larger volatility? Possibly.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, we can see a dramatic breakdown after the index attempted to break out the two Simple Moving Averages (10-week and 20-week). Whether it is a break down or not will depend on how it goes in the coming two weeks. In my opinion it won't break down straight away.

One good thing is that there is a support at 19,600 given by the Fibonacci retracement level. This is the same as that on daily chart and we could expect strong support here.

So if the index reaches 19,600, it would be a good chance to long and wait for rebound. If it rises above 50-week SMA at 20,100, we can even add more long positions. But you have to be mentally and physically ready for huge movements.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-05-13)

15-May (Tuesday)
09:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board May Minutes
14:00 Germany GDP {Forecast: Slight rise}
17:00 Euro-Zone GDP {Forecast: Drop}
20:30 US CPI {Forecast: Drop from 2.7% to 2.4%}

16-May (Wednesday)
16:00 Italy GDP {Forecast: More negative}
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Increase to 5K from 3.6K}
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI {Forecast: Slight drop}
17:30 UK BOE Inflation Report

17-May (Thursday)
07:50 Japan GDP {Forecast: Big increase}
17:00 Spain GDP {Forecast: Drop to -0.4% from 0.3%}

18-May (Friday)
14:00 Germany Produce Prices {Forecast: Drop from 3.3% to 2.5%}
20:30 Canada CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}


Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Rebound as well? (2012-05-11 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold. After failing in breaking out, the gold price has plunged hardly and currently reached the lower bound of the down-trend channel. Also, there is a green medium term up-trend line supporting it. So we may expect a rebound by the Gold, with the resistant at around 1640.

Rebound in US ? (2012-05-10 SPX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of S&P 500 Index (SPX). It was well supported by the median line of the Pitchfork yesterday and it looks like it is going to rebound. Resistant is at around 1385 which is around 2.8% from current level.

Struggling (2012-05-08 EUR analysis)

Above is the 4-Hour chart of EUR. After the gap down last week, it is now gradually rising and has reached the gap. This gap will be a resistant to it, especially the upper bound which is also one of the Fibonacci levels. We can expect the 17-nation currency to struggle a bit at current level.

Difficult-to-predict week (2012-05-07 HSI analysis)

Last week the global stock market  went quite differently. US and Europe markets basically only surged in the beginning and started plunging, mostly closed low (on weekly charts) on Friday due to the plummet that day.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) in general recorded a positive change last week, but we have to expect it to react to the slump in overseas markets last Friday. So today it is more likely to open low.

Gold dropped hardly as well, and it looks like that it is not following what I wrote on Thursday which I thought the support was strong. It is now within the down-trend channel and that it is still under bearish trend now.

This week there is not much important economic data released, so the movement should be more stable unless there are breaking news. Let's see what the charts tell.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














On this chart clearly we can see that the index broke out of the upper down-trend line, shown in green. With more than 3 days staying above the line, the breakout is more or less confirmed.

Given by both the lower up-trend green line and the Fibonacci level, we can find strong support at 21,000. This is a critical level for today which determines how HSI is going to move this week.

If it closes below 21,000, the extended down-trend green line would provide a further support to the index which is at around 20,500. This becomes the range of the index, and this range is widening.

If it continues to move upwards, it will head to 21,600 and most likely it can even break it and attempt to reach 22,100.


Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, we can see that the index breaks out of the down-trend channel, shown in green. The breakout has to be confirmed by further observation.

If this week it closes below 20,800, that means it drops back within the channel and the breakout is false. It would be continuing its bearish trend.

On the other hand, the Fibonacci level at 21,600 remains a resistant to the index and it will another time that HSI attempts to break it. Given such many trials, it is quite likely that HSI could make it this time.

So this week is pretty hard to predict, let's see and watch and react to the movements.

Important Economics data this week (2012-05-06)

7-May (Monday)
09:30 Australia Retail Sales {Forecast: Unchanged}
13:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}

10-May (Thursday)
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
16:00 European Central Bank publishes May monthly report
19:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
19:00 UK BOE Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}

11-May (Friday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
21:55 U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Unchanged}

Bullish trend on Gold ? (2012-05-03 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU). It just broke out from the down-trend channel and is heading higher. However, the previous breakout level resisted its surge, and now it is in between a short range of support and resistant. Look like it is more likely to break 1665 and would attempt to reach 1750 or even 1800.

What volatility tells (2012-05-02 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of volatility index (.VIX). It looks like the index would gradually rise in near future but as the range narrows it is more likely to break out. So it might mean a gradually bullish trend in the stock market followed by plunges. Would keep on updating on this.

Plummeting US Dollar (2012-05-01 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (.DXY). It appears that it has just confirmed the flag breakdown by the rejection of re-entering the flag, by the lower up-trend line. Target will be at 75.5 but the green medium-term support will give strong support too. So watch out the level given by this line.

Have a good holiday.