Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Beijing internship
Final examinations finally end and I would leave HK to Beijing for a winter internship in China Galaxy Securities. So I would not be able to update this blog for 3 weeks. Hope there would not be surprising news in these 3 weeks.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
End of Crazy Rise of Gold? (12-12-2009 Gold analysis)
Being in Final Examination period, I could hardly squeeze some time to do analysis and post it on blog. After a whole day of study, I finally manage to find some spare time to analyze Gold. In the past week, dollar rose and commodities like oil and gold dropped. Does it signal the end of the crazy rise of Gold? Let's see the below price of gold.
You can see there are three triangles. The projection bases on the large rise at the first triangle. After breaking through 61.8% line at 1181.6, it seems that the momentum is weakened and it fell, breaking the 50% line and heading to 38.2% line at 1089.2. I anticipate that the price of Gold would reach 1089.2 and fluctuates slightly around this price. Moreover, Treasury Yield Curve steepens by an increase in 10-year and 30-year bond yield. Short term rates are still maintained as low as possible, dollar does not have much signal to rise in short period. So there are no significant evidence to prove that the crazy rise in price of Gold has come to an end.
You can see there are three triangles. The projection bases on the large rise at the first triangle. After breaking through 61.8% line at 1181.6, it seems that the momentum is weakened and it fell, breaking the 50% line and heading to 38.2% line at 1089.2. I anticipate that the price of Gold would reach 1089.2 and fluctuates slightly around this price. Moreover, Treasury Yield Curve steepens by an increase in 10-year and 30-year bond yield. Short term rates are still maintained as low as possible, dollar does not have much signal to rise in short period. So there are no significant evidence to prove that the crazy rise in price of Gold has come to an end.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Rise in Dollar (05-12-2009 JPYUSD analysis)
The "incident" in Dubai has been eased and the stock markets in the globe have become more stable. We could often treat such kind of "incidents" to be some news that are "released" by some insiders to push the stock market down in order to let them buy with cheaper prices. Though what I have said cannot be officially proved (of course), we can tell this through our observations and experiences.
This week's focus is mainly on the forex. The Dollar has risen a lot due to expectations on Fed interest-rate hike. After my personal analysis, I believe this expectations would continue bring up the Dollar, especially versus Yen. Let's see the chart below:
We can see that the price breaks through the upper line of the downtrend. We have to keep an eye on it to see whether it will keep on above the channel or simply a "fake" breakthrough. Also, it breaks the 38.2% line of the fibonacci projections and would likely to go up to 50%, which is at 92.02. If it does, then it could go further more as it breaks the Ichimoku cloud and the trend is reversed and become a up-going signal.
This week's focus is mainly on the forex. The Dollar has risen a lot due to expectations on Fed interest-rate hike. After my personal analysis, I believe this expectations would continue bring up the Dollar, especially versus Yen. Let's see the chart below:
We can see that the price breaks through the upper line of the downtrend. We have to keep an eye on it to see whether it will keep on above the channel or simply a "fake" breakthrough. Also, it breaks the 38.2% line of the fibonacci projections and would likely to go up to 50%, which is at 92.02. If it does, then it could go further more as it breaks the Ichimoku cloud and the trend is reversed and become a up-going signal.
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