Final post

I have lost my remote access to my school's Reuters terminal for drawing charts, and I currently do not have any decent programs to do so; therefore, I have to stop posting. This blog will remain as educational purpose.

If you would like to have idea exchange with me, please feel free to email me: jeffrey.scw@gmail.com

Good luck and all the best to all of you.

Big Vol (2012-09-03 HSI analysis)

Last week global markets dropped a bit, while Hong Kong market slumped. US market closed higher last Friday, so HSI should follow and opened high today. However, the over trend is still quite bearish.

This week there will be some rate decisions and unemployment rates released that can affect the stock market, but they won't be expected to give great impact. Instead, these days its all about the sudden news from Europe and so we have to react fast to the news.

Let's see this week's HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














 
On daily chart, it seems like the 50-day SMA has failed to support the index, and the next support would be at 19300 given by the up trend-line these few months which should be quite strong.

Currently it is hard to guess whether there will be a breakdown below the green line; we would have to keep looking at it to see how it is going to be.

Other than this, there seems not much other meaningful hints on this chart.


Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, the index just fell below the moving averages, and the support given by the flag is at around 19000. Therefore, 19000-19300 would be a strong support zone for HSI.

Even if HSI falls below 19300, on daily chart we would have to be aware of false breakdown as there is support at 19000 on weekly chart.

Another observation is that on weekly chart, the three Simple Moving Averages converge and touch each others. This is a big hint of big volatility following. If allowed, it might be a good time to long volatility through either option strategies or VIX on HSI.

Better closely watch the market or you may lose a great chance.

Important Economic data this week (2012-09-02)

3-Sept (Monday)
16:30 UK PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}

4-Sept (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
13:45 Switzerland GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 2.0%}
17:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index {Forecast: Decrease}
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}

5-Sept (Wendesday)
09:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 3.7% from 4.3%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}

6-Sept (Thursday)
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.3% from 5.2%}
17:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:00 UK BOE Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Decrease to 0.50% from 0.75%}

7-Sept (Friday)
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Drop to 127K from 163K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}

Time Zone: GMT+8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Go, Gold (2012-08-30 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of gold (XAU=). It has broken many major supports and is going to set off. Would be a good chance for long positions.

Dropping Aussie (2012-08-29 AUD analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of Aussie (AUD=). After breaking down the red up-trend, the direction has reversed and it should keep on dropping.

Still a bearish week (2012-08-27 HSI analysis)

Last week was another boring week with very low volume. This definitely was not a good time for most traders. The market was full of both good and bad news, so they kind of canceled out each other.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped after reaching the resistant I mentioned in last two weeks. Dollar also went down after I have posted the divergence post about DXY. Gold broke out as I have predicted too, reaching as high as 1675 which is expected to go higher if the breakout of the resistant line is confirmed.

This week there is not many important economic data released, but we have to be prepared of the possibility that US or Europe will be going to say something about the economy. Read fast and respond fast.

Let's see this week HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














After reaching the purple resistant line two weeks ago, HSI started to turn its direction and slowly moved to lower levels. Last Friday, it dropped below 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

As US markets wasn't doing too bad last Friday, HSI is expected to open higher. 20-day SMA is anticipated to resist the index at around 20000.

If the index could not break this level, the break down will be confirmed. There is only support until 50-day SMA at around 19570 and ultimate support is at 19200 only daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart gives a clearer view. HSI started to fall after touching the red resistant line. The SMAs are converging and together with the Fibonacci retracement they will be giving support at around 19600.

If the index reaches 19600, it seems like it will be supported and will tend to break out of the red resistant line. Of course this would depend on the volume at that time, but it looks like the trend.

Nevertheless, the trend this week is still bearish. It would have to be revised after reaching 19600.

Important Economic data this week (2012-08-26)

28-Aug (Tuesday)
22:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}

29-Aug (Wednesday)
20:00 Germany CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight increase}
20:30 US GDP (Annualized) {Forecast: Rise to 1.7% from 1.5%}

30-Aug (Thursday)
15:55 Germany Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core {Forecast: Slight drop}

31-Aug (Friday)
20:30 Canada GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}

Breaking out ? (2012-08-23 Gold analysis)

Above is the weekly chart of gold (XAU). It has reached a strong resistant at this moment, but it looks like it would be breaking out very soon given that it has recently broken out a little rectangle and the MACD looks not too bad.

Obvious divergences (2012-08-21 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (DXY). It seems like it is going to plunge, which means Euros, Pounds and Yens would surge.

Still Bearish view (2012-08-20 HSI analysis)

Last week despite the economic data released, the stock market basically moved sideways without big fluctuations. Volume continued to be really low as investors mostly decided to think twice before acting in the markets.

Hang Seng Index reached the resistant line two weeks ago, but last week it did not plunge. The index remained near the resistant line, but since there is no any good catalyst for boosting it, long positions are still very risky.

Daily chart of HSI:
 















Daily chart did not change much compared with that posted last week. After reaching the resistant provided by both the Fibonacci level and the trend line, the index moved sideways and could not break out.

It is currently being supported by the 10-day SMA. However, as the support is not expected to be strong, it is quite likely that the index would drop below the current level.

Also, volume remained low which implies that the index does not have enough power to breakout. It would need some more time to save power.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart did not change much as well. The index is currently at the resistant line and cannot break out.

With lowered volume, chance of plummeting is high. The SMAs are converging and will give support at around 19500.

Then, strong and ultimate support will be at 18650 and 17800, though they are still too far to be considered.

So this week it should be a bearish week. Or at least it will move sideways.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-08-19)

21-Aug (Tuesday)
09:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board August Minutes

22-Aug (Wednesday)
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Drop to 0.1% from 0.3%}

23-Aug (Thursday)
02:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from August 1 FOMC meeting
10:30 China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
14:00 Germany GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
16:00 Euro-zone PMI {Forecast: Unchanged}

24-Aug (Friday)
16:30 UK GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Rise to -0.6% from -0.8%}
20:30 US Durable Good Orders {Forecast: Increase to 2.5% from 1.3%}

Vol might break out (2012-08-17 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of volatility index (.VIX). The index recently plunged to all-time low and bounced to resistant level. From the chart, it looks like it would be going to break out, though the breakout signal is not very strong.

Dropping Euros? (2012-08-15 EUR analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of Euros (EUR=). The 17-nation currency is currently moving within a flag with narrowing range, and is going to break out either side. On the chart, we can observe MACD and RSI divergences, which tell us that the price of Euros would probably go lower due to lack of momentum. If the break down is confirmed, by Fibonacci project the target price would be at as low as 1.16. Good luck.

A bear week (2012-08-13 HSI analysis)

After two-week of busy days packed with applying jobs and writing dissertation, finally I have some time to watch the markets and update this blog (though the two are still not done). Anyway, last week Hang Seng Index reached its resistant and fell. It looks like it still does not have enough momentum to break out.

This week there will be lots of economic figures being revealed including GDPs and CPIs. The charts suggest that the data would be pretty negative leading to another plunge of the stock markets in the globe.

Let's take a look at this week's HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














The index reached the red solid trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci level last week and was resisted. Volume was low despite the surge which suggests that HSI probably would slump.

Obviously going into long position at this moment would be extremely risky. On the other hand, the index is very likely to fall quite a lot as there is no strong support nearby.

Next support shown on daily chart would be at 19300 which is the 50-day Simple Moving Average. 10-day and 20-day SMAs look pretty weak these days. Given that the current level is 20100, it is likely that the index would drop 800 points.

Ultimate support is given by the green solid trend line at around 19000. So 19000-19300 will be a very strong support zone to the index.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, though the red trend line is different from that on daily chart, this line also contributed to resisting the index from going higher last week.

As suggested above, HSI has no momentum to go any further and that it would fall. If so, the simple moving averages will start to converge and provide a support at around 19500, which is also the 38.2% retracement level.

There will be strong support at 18600 and ultimate support is at 17800, the first one might be an "intra-week" low as daily chart suggests strong support at 19000.

Both daily chart and weekly chart suggest that the index would fall, so if the index does not open very low today, it might be a good idea to enter short positions. The upside risk is very limited. Stop loss is of course break out of the resistant line but it is quite unlikely.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-08-12)

13-Aug (Monday)
07:50 Japan GDP Annualized {Forecast: Drop to 2.3% from 4.7%}

14-Aug (Tuesday)
14:00 Germany GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 0.9% from 1.7%}
16:30 UK CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}
17:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to -0.4% from -0.1%}
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise to 0.3% from -0.5%}

15-Aug (Wednesday)
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Slight drop}
20:30 US CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}

16-Aug (Thursday)
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}

17-Aug (Friday)
14:00 Germany Producer Prices (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 1.2% from 1.6%}
20:30 Canada CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight rise}
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Very slight drop}

Need to catch up

Finally I am back at Hong Kong and would continue my dissertation here. As I didn't spend much time on stock market last week, it should be better for me to catch up with stuff this week before posting any analysis. Good luck to all of you.

Not going to be a good week (2012-07-23 HSI analysis)

 Daily chart of HSI:
















On daily chart, the index is still under the upward flag as mentioned before. The lower bound for the flag has become a strong resistant to the index. However, as the line is increasing, the conclusion we can draw is the index will not surge greatly.

Strong support is still at 18000 on daily chart. Besides that, there seems to be no other major supports underneath. Let's see weekly charts for more hints.


Weekly chart of HSI:

The index is still within the two boundaries, green and red solid lines. They give strong support and resistant at 18500 and 20400 respectively.

HSI was supported by the 10-week Simple Moving Average two weeks ago and surged last week. It has now reached the 50-week SMA so we can see whether it can resist the index.

Combining the two charts, it looks more likely for the index to plunge this week, given the resistant from the flag on daily chart and 50-week SMA on weekly chart. Support is at 19000 given by 10-week SMA on weekly chart, but it is expected to be weaker than before.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-22)

24-July (Tuesday)
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 0.5% from -0.5%}

25-July (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia CPI {Forecast: Decrease to 1.3% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease to -0.3% from -0.2%}

26-July (Thursday)
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Drop to 0.3% from 1.3%}

27-July (Friday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 US GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.4% from 1.9%}

Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Break very soon (2012-07-19 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold price (XAU=). The price should be breaking very soon, but till now we don't have enough hints to know which way it will be going. The only thing to do is to wait and see how it is moving.

GBP Breakout? (2012-07-17 GBP analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of GBP/USD (GBP=). The price has just broken out of the recent downwards channel, and if it remains above the upper purple line for a few hours, the breakout will be confirmed. Next resistant is at around 1.578 which is the 50% retracement level.

Levels to be aware of (2012-07-16 HSI analysis)

Recently I am busy working on my dissertation and therefore I do not have much time to keep track of the stock markets and might update less frequently.

Last week global stock markets plunged, but US markets rose on Friday. Therefore, Asian markets are expected to open high today. This week numbers for CPIs are coming out but they do not have big influences on stock markets. Events to be aware of is when US Fed releases reports, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Bernanke might have some speeches that affect the markets greatly.

Let's see how Hang Seng Index (HSI) should be moving this week.


Daily chart of HSI:

The index finally breaks the upward-trending flag, to a lower level. Given the rise in US markets last Friday, HSI should be rising today and is going to test again the lower line.

Resistant is found at around 19450, if the index closes above the line, the breakdown would be fake and it would continue moving within the flag.

However, if breakdown confirms, it seems like there is no strong support until 18000 on daily chart. We need weekly chart to help identify any possible support in between.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, the index is supported by 10-week Simple Moving Average. We would have to see whether the index would breakdown of this support this week.

A shorter-term support is found at around 18400. So if breakdown confirms on daily chart, 18400 will be the next support.

As usual, the red dotted line shows a strong resistant at 20400 and the green dotted line gives strong support at 17800 (which means that 17800-18000 is strong support zone).

So good luck to all of you.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-15)

16-July (Monday)
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise to 0.2% from -0.2%}

17-July (Tuesday)
06:45 New Zealand CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.1% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.7%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Delivers Monetary Policy Report to Senate

18-July (Wednesday)
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Drop to 5.0K from 8.1K}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Gives Semiannual Report to US House

19-July (Thursday)
02:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey

20-July (Friday)
14:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 1.8% from 2.1%}
20:30 Canada CPI {Forecast: Rise to 1.8% from 1.2%}

Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Target not yet reached (2012-07-13)

Above is the daily chart of Cheung Kong (0001.HK). After breaking out from the head-and-shoulder inverse pattern, it seems like it hasn't reached its target yet. Due to the poor market yesterday it has just dropped to its strong support level, and there is good chance that it will rebound to the breakout target.

Going to breakout? (2012-07-11 Gold analysis)

Above is daily chart of Gold (XAU=). It has just reached the lower bound of the current flag, and it will probably surge and test the resistant again. Given the movement of MACD, it looks like it is going to break out upwards from the current flag.

Drop and rise? (2012-07-10 DXY analysis)

Above is 4-hour chart of USD Index (DXY). It looks like it would drop in short time because of the bearish cross in MACD, but its upward trend hasn't vanished given the MACD bullish divergence. So let's keep track of it and see when it will drop to a good support for us to take long positions.

A late post on HSI (2012-07-09 HSI analysis)

After a very busy week, finally I have little time to do some analysis on the market. Though this post is a bit late since the market has already opened, the below charts for Hang Seng Index (HSI) might still worth looking at.

Daily chart of HSI:














The index is pretty much moving within the narrowing range between solid green and red lines. Support is at 19350.

Weekly chart of HSI:

There is not much on weekly chart, the only thing we know that the index is approaching the upper down-trend line, which is a strong resistant to HSI. The risk for LONG is increasing.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-08)

9-Jul (Monday)
09:30 China CPI {Forecast: Drop to 2.3% from 3.0%}

10-Jul (Tuesday)
10:00 China Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to 24B from 18.7B}

11-Jul (Wednesday)
14:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to -48.4B from -50.1B}

12-Jul (Thursday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
02:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from June FOMC Meeting
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.2% from 5.1%}
16:00 European Central Bank Publishes July Monthly Report

13-Jul (Friday)
10:00 China Real GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.8%}
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}

Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com

Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-01)

2-Jul (Monday)
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight drop}

3-Jul (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 Euro-zone Producer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}

4-Jul (Wednesday)
17:00 Euro-zone retail sales {Forecast: Rise to -1% from -2.5%}

5-Jul (Thursday)
19:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop to 0.75% from 1%}

6-Jul (Friday)
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Increase to 90K from 69K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}

Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Volatility breakout? (2012-06-27 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of volatility index (VIX). There will be a break soon, we have to keep on looking at whether it is going up or down. Given that there will be loads of economic data coming out next few days, I believe the chance for breaking out would be higher.

I'm going back to Hong Kong tomorrow and therefore I might not be able to update the blog for two days.

Euros moving flat? (2012-06-26 EUR analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD. Looks like it is currently under a down-trend channel, but probably it would move sideways for a while since RSI has already dropped to a very low level.

Doing nothing might be the best thing to do (2012-06-25 HSI analysis)

Last week there wasn't much happening, the stock markets just went up and down. Asian markets plunged on Friday but US markets closed higher, so Asian markets today should be opening high, which means that the indexes basically move sideways last week.

Commodities experienced a big plummet on Thursday, Oil and Gold prices dropped greatly. As posted, gold price had already plunged through the lower bound of the flag, but still one more day is needed to confirmed its break down (though it is quite likely).

This week there will be quite a lot of data coming out, including CPI, unemployment rates and GDPs. Especially on Asian's Friday and US's Thursday, the markets is expected to fluctuate quite a lot.

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).


Daily chart of HSI:
 














HSI is still pretty much following the Pitchfork. It was supported well by the mid-line last Friday. The lower red-line seems to be less powerful than it looks like.

As mentioned, the index is expected to open high today. So it looks like it could remain above the mid-line and would go up a bit again.

There isn't much to tell from daily chart, but keep in mind that if the index breaks below the level of around 18900 (which is a decreasing support), it could easily plunges to below 18000, at the lower line of the Pitchfork.


Weekly chart of HSI:

Same as last week, the index is still moving between the two boundaries, shown in red and green. These two indicate its ultimate support and resistant.

HSI has just been resisted by the 38.2% Fibonacci level plus 10-week Simple Moving Average, but still as these are expected to be a weaker resistant, it is hard to tell whether the index would go up or down.

Also, we can see that it is exactly at the middle of the two boundaries. Buying or selling both has a pretty high risk. Therefore, I would suggest keeping away from the market for a while before everything is clear enough.

Important Economic data this week (2012-06-24)

25-Jun (Monday)
14:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey


26-Jun (Tuesday)
22:00 US Consumer Confidence

27-Jun (Wednesday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Slight drop}
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Increase to 0.5% from 0.2%}


28-Jun (Thursday)
15:55 Germany Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
16:30 UK GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}

29-Jun (Friday)
20:30 Canada GDP {Forecast: Increase to 1.9% from 1.6%}
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Unchanged}

Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Second test ? (2012-06-22 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (.DXY). The index has reached the target level estimated by the flag breakout, and now it is going to test again this level. Personally, DXY should be resisted by this level again and starts dropping. The green level gives a very strong support to the index.

Flag breakout/down? (2012-06-21 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold. We can see that it is currently moving in a flag shape, and it looks like it is going to break one side very soon. The support and resistant levels are indicated on the chart. Let's keep an eye on it.

False or true break down? (2012-06-20 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of volatility index (VIX). Given the movement in MACD and RSI, the index looks like that it would surge and go back within the diverging flag, which means that the volatility would increase. But still we would need the index to close within the flag to confirm that the break down is a false one.

Would it break out ? (2012-06-18 HSI analysis)

Last week due to the many different news, the global stock markets were just fluctuating quite a lot. One day stimulus speculation brought the markets upwards, and another day debt concerns pulled the markets downwards. Overall, markets surged last week, mainly due to the big rise on Friday.

Gold kept on rising last week, with four consecutive days of upward movement. But silver did not follow this trend, it moved pretty much sideways. GBP broke out the flag as I mentioned, and surged greatly last Friday.

The most important expected news this week would be Fed's speech this coming Thursday (GMT+8, which is Wednesday in US/Europe). We would have to see what they are going to say about US's economy. Other expected economic data would have little effect on the stock markets.

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).

Daily chart of HSI:
 















As I have mentioned last Monday, the resistant was at around 19200. Last Friday, the index has reached this level and closed at about the resistant line.

This level is treated as a quite strong resistant. However, given the big surge in US last Friday, whether the index will just break out is still unknown.

From my point of view, the market in general is still bearish. Normal news is not powerful enough to lead HSI to break out. So I would expect the index to drop after reaching this resistant level. If so, first support would be at 18700 which is the simple moving averages. They are not too strong as usual, stronger support is found at 18000.

On the other hand, if the index surges above the middle line, the next resistant would be at the upper line of Pitchfork. The level is at around 19950, and this level is dropping.


Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart doesn't tell much. It only gives the same bound as mentioned last week. The fluctuating in between is quite unpredictable.

Good luck.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-06-17)

18-Jun (Monday)
13:00 Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report

19-Jun (Tuesday)
09:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board June Minutes
16:30 UK CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 Germany ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) {Forecast: Drop}

20-Jun (Wednesday)
07:50 Bank of Japan to Publish Minutes of May 22-23 Board Meeting
14:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 2.2% from 2.4%}
16:30 Bank of England Minutes
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Rise from -13.7K to -3.0K}

21-Jun (Thursday)
00:30 US FOMC Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
02:00 US FOMC to Release Projections of Economy and Fed Funds Rate
02:15 US Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference
06:45 New Zealand GDP {Forecast: Rise to 0.4% from 0.3%}

22-Jun (Friday)
20:30 Canada Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 1.5% from 2.0%}


Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Up or down? (2012-06-14 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU=). It is now at the critical point that determines whether the gold price is going bullish or bearish in near future. We have to keep an eye on it.

Possible flag breakout (2012-06-13 GBP analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of the British Pounds (GBP=). It seems like its bearish trend has come to an end and the price is going to move upwards. However, this only happens when the break out is confirmed. So if the price closes above the flag at next candle, then we can confirm its bullish trend.

Rising volatility (2012-06-12 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of volatility index (VIX). The index should be moving upwards within the diverging flag, and the trading range would be widening. But in general, a bullish movement is expected on the index. Watch out of any big plunges in stock markets.

Big rebound and resisted? (2012-06-11 HSI analysis)

Thanks to Spain bailout, the world global markets surged greatly at the end of last week, and this trend would probably continue at least at the beginning of this week. Hang Seng Index (HSI) basically moved flat last week, but given the big surge in US last Friday, HSI would follow the surge today first.

Commodities prices slumped last week given the strengthened US Dollar. This week probably it would gain due to weakened US Dollar.

This week there is not much important economic news which can affect stock markets. There are CPIs being released but they have effect on FX market more than on equity markets.


Daily chart of HSI:
 















On daily chart, the index finally got back into the Pitchfork. Given that today the index would rise, we can confirm that it has safely  maintained above the lower line.

This means that the index would have a short-term rise till the middle line of the Pitchfork. The resistant level is at around 19200. This would be a strong resistant given not only by the Pitchfork but also the red down-trend line.

After reaching 19200, the index should probably fall again, unless there is another big good news supporting the world stock markets. But it seems like one of the biggest good news has been released last week and that there could not be so many critical good news.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, there isn't much to get. The index did not reach the green up-trend strong support line, and it is now in the middle of the flag.

The only thing we know now is that the trading range is narrowing. There would be someday that it will break out and move in one direction. We have to keep track of this in order to profit from this known fact.

Also, bear in mind that strong support is at 17400-17800 (rising), and resistant is at around 20600 (dropping). These two levels have to be updated every week.

Good luck to all of you.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-06-10)

13-Jun (Wednesday)
14:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Drop to -0.2% from 0.1%}

14-Jun (Thursday)
05:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
15:30 Swiss National Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.9% from 2.3%}

15-Jun (Friday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision
16:30 UK Visible Trade Balance
21:55 U. of Michigan  Confidence {Forecast: Drop}

Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Further breakout (2012-06-08 EUR analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD. After breakout of the down-trend channel, which has been confirmed on this chart, the Euros should be moving under bullish trend. It is currently at the green short-term support level, and looks like it would be going to break out the resistant zone.

Rest after big surge (2012-06-07 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU=). After a very strong surge, it seems like the price has met its resistant and could not break out. It might take some rest, going flat or slightly downwards, before another crazy rise.

Calm down for a while (2012-06-05 VIX analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Volatility Index (.VIX). The index is more-or-less under bullish trend but it seems it would take a few-day rest, before further surging.

Plunging to the support (2012-06-04 HSI analysis)

Finally all my exams (both school and open exams) are over and now I have more time to keep track of the financial markets and do analysis.

Last week there weren't big movements until Friday where US and Europe markets plunged hardly due to the job data.  Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to follow and plummet as soon as the market opens.

This week there will be a lot of GDPs and unemployment rates coming out. More important ones that have significant effect on Hong Kong market might be Euro-zone GDP on Wednesday and Japan GDP on Thursday.

Let's see this week HSI.


Daily chart of HSI:
 


















The index plunged below the Pitchfork, and was not able to get back within it after trying hard last week.  We can treat this as an even more bearish signal.

Below the Pitchfork, still, we could not find a valid support on daily chart. This tells us that the index still has room for plunging.

Other than the above information, it seems like the chart is not telling us anything more.


Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart is more informative in terms of suggesting a good support level. The lower red line is a longer up-trend line which provides strong support at around 17450 (it was 17400 at the beginning of last week).

Also, the Fibonacci level is going to support the index at around 17800. Therefore, we can continue to expect a strong support zone at 17450-17800. We can take LONG positions at this level with quite little risk.

For the upside, there is slight resistant at 19500. But given the investment atmosphere these days, I believe this level can hardly be reached in short time.

Good luck.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-06-03)

5-Jun (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate {Forecast: Drop to 3.5% from 3.75%}
17:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales {Forecast: Drop to -1.1% from -0.2%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}


6-Jun (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Rise to 3.2% from 2.3%}
17:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged at 1%}

7-Jun (Thursday)
02:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.1% from 4.9%}
13:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Drop to 3.0% from 3.1%}
19:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}

8-Jun (Friday)
07:30 Japan GDP {Forecast: Rise to 4.5% from 4.1%}
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}

9-Jun (Saturday)
09:30 China CPI {Forecast: Drop to 3.2% from 3.4%}


Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
source: http://www.dailyfx.com

Important Economic Data this week (2012-05-27)

29-May (Tuesday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Increase}

30-May (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia Retail Sales {Forecast: Decrease to 0.2% from 0.9%}

31-May (Thursday)
13:45 Switzerland GDP {Forecast: Drop to 0.8% from 1.3%}
15:55 Germany Unemployment Change {Forecast: Drop to -7K from 19K}
20:15 US ADP Employment Change
20:30 US GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.9% from 2.2%}

1-Jun (Friday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Drop to 52 from 53.3}
20:30 Canada GDP {Forecast: Rise to 1.9%}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Rise to 150K from 115K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
 

Silver's bottomed? (2012-05-22 Silver analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Silver (XAG). After crazy plunges, it seems like it would be going to gain a bit.

Where are the supports? (2012-05-21 HSI analysis)

Last week the global stock market plunged quite hardly due to situations in Europe. Hong Kong stock market was slumping even worse compared to other major stock markets. Basically it has dropped below many major support lines and currently there is no other good support levels.

The Dollar rose quite a lot, rising from 80.70 on Monday to as high as over 81.70 on Friday. Commodities plummeted in the beginning of the week. Gold price dropped below 1530 on Wednesday, but was able to gained and closed at 1590 on Friday.

This week there isn't much economic data that has significant influence on the markets. The most critical one would be Germany GDP to be revealed on Thursday (HKT).

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Daily chart of HSI:
 















On this chart, obviously the index has plunged blow many good supports. Now it is at the position of "open air" whether we can hardly find good support.

Good news is that we can see that there is only one candle outside of those areas. If the index is able to climb up above the two supports, we can treat it as false breakdown.

Nevertheless, the Pitchfork tells us that the index is currently under a bearish trend. It may have rebound but overall it should be heading downwards.

The level to be concerned of would be 19200. If HSI can close above this level in these two days, then the situation isn't too bad.

Otherwise, we can expect a further quick and hard plummet on daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, after reaching a major resistant at around 21000 three weeks ago, the index plunged hardly, crossing all 10-, 20- and 50-week simple moving averages in a sudden.

We can see that an ultimate support given by a pretty long-term up-trend line is at around 17400. On the other hand, a Fibonacci retracement level also provides support at 17800.

Therefore, we can expect a very strong support at this zone. If the index drops to this level and starts to seek support, it would be an extremely good opportunity.

For the upside, 19500 provides slight resistant, and stronger resistant would be at 20000, due to both psychological and 50-week moving average.

Good luck to all of you. I might not be able to update the blog that often because I have to spend time on studying CFA Level 2 examination held in early June.

Important Economic Data this week (2012-05-20)

22-May (Tuesday)
11:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation
16:30 UK CPI {Forecat: Drop to 3.1% from 3.5%}

23-May (Wednesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
16:30 Bank of England Minutes
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise}

24-May (Thursday)
13:00 Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Report
14:00 Germany GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}
15:30 Germany PMI {Forecast: Increase}
16:30 UK GDP {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Rise to 0.5% from -4.2%}

Time to rebound (2012-05-17 BOC analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Bank of China (3988.HK). It looks like it has reached an extremely strong support zone after several days of severe plunges and it will undergo a rebound. This might be a hint of a rebound in the stock market as well.

Bullish Dollar (2012-05-16 DXY analysis)

Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (DXY). It looks like it has reached a major resistant level and may retreat a bit. But in general it is definitely in bullish trend.

Last week was not a good week to many investors, with quite a lot of negative news. There might be even more regulations to investment banks on their risk management after the great loss by JP Morgan.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) plunged hardly last week, breaking down and closing below 20,000 first time this year after breaking out this level in early January.

There will be quite a lot of economic data revealed this week, including GDPs from several countries especially Italy and Spain, and CPIs from several countries too. We can expect that the market would be greatly affected on Italy and Spain GDP figures, which are expected to be worse than previous figures (but keep in mind that how the market moves depends on whether the real number beats or is beaten by the estimation, not just the data itself).

Let's see how this week will go.

Daily chart of HSI:
 















The index broke down the medium-term up-trend support line shown in orange, as well as the 23.8% Fibonacci projection level. This is definitely not a good sign.

There is a shorter term down-trend line which might give a bit support at around 19,600. HSI will probably rebound after reaching this level.

Other than these, the only things we can see from the chart would be a widening trading range, with the current resistant at around 20,400. Is it telling us that there would be a larger volatility? Possibly.

Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, we can see a dramatic breakdown after the index attempted to break out the two Simple Moving Averages (10-week and 20-week). Whether it is a break down or not will depend on how it goes in the coming two weeks. In my opinion it won't break down straight away.

One good thing is that there is a support at 19,600 given by the Fibonacci retracement level. This is the same as that on daily chart and we could expect strong support here.

So if the index reaches 19,600, it would be a good chance to long and wait for rebound. If it rises above 50-week SMA at 20,100, we can even add more long positions. But you have to be mentally and physically ready for huge movements.