JPHK Update (2010-11-30)

Not yet bottomed (2010-11-30 EUR analysis)

Concerns on PIIGS did not stop after situation in Ireland improved. Investors switched their awareness on Portugal and Spain, and EU could hardly aid them anymore if they had problems on their financial status, especially Spain. This would of course give a hard push to Euro to a even lower levels.

The price of the 16-nation currency keeps on moving lower along the green downwards channel. Touching the bottom line, it is currently rebouncing. However, given such bad news on situations in PIIGS, I could hardly expect that it has already bottomed.

Using fibonacci projection, it is heading towards its last low, and would probably reach around 1.30. However, MACD and EMA are at its lowest level, a small rebouncing and consolidation is likely, but it could hardly break the channel. So when it reaches somewhere around the second or third line, we could sell Euros and anticipate its continued drop.

JPHK Update (2010-11-29)

Uncertain (2010-11-29 HSI analysis)

From around 23,500 at the beginning of last week, Hang Seng Index has dropped around 600 points and closed at 22,877. Both the conflicts between N.Korea and S.Korea and the debt crisis in Ireland (actually PIIGS before any concrete figures showing improvement in their financial status) helped set the market downwards.

Would HSI keep on dropping in the following week? It depends on whether it could stay above the support which is around 100-200 points from the current level.

Daily chart of HSI:


After the index broke its supportive uptrend line at around 23,600 last week, it plunged and reached the next support level.

Currently it is at around the support the zone, with support given by both the longer-term uptrend line and the fibonacci 50% level.

MACD dropped below 0, which would greatly reduce its momentum to keep on slumping.

Weekly chart of HSI:


For this longer timeframe, a bearish cross by MACD and its EMA just appeared, signalling a bearish market would follow.

On this chart, the green support line would be at the level of around 22,400. Again, the fibs 100% level by using projection on the wedge and the uptrend line provides the power to support the index.

It's hard to predict what would happen next week. Probably it would keep on falling to the support zone, and would have a bit consolidation. If the support breaks and the index drops below 22,400, we can have a even more bearish view. If not, it is quite risky to make any decisions for both long/short.

Important Economic Data (2010-11-27)

To be more clear on the timeline, I decided to use HKT for listing the economic data announcement below.

29-Nov (Monday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Unchange}

30-Nov (Tuesday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate {Forecast: Unchange}
18:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}
21:30 Canada GDP (SEP; MoM) {Forecast: Drop}
22:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.7}
23:00 US Consumer Confidence (NOV) {Forecast: Increase}

1-Dec (Wednesday)
08:30 Australia GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.7%}
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing (NOV) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing (NOV) {Forecast: Drop by 0.4}

2-Dec (Thursday)
14:45 Switzerland GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.4%}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Unchange}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC) {Forecast: Unchange}

3-Dec (Friday)
20:00 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) {Forecast: Unchange}
21:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) {Forecast: Drop}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate (NOV) {Forecast: Unchange}

JPHK Update (2010-11-26)

Crocodile 0122.HK surged over 13% today. I have missed the first buying point. Let's see whether the price can stay above 0.74 next Monday and breakout confirms, it is still worth buying.

Hanging in the middle (2010-11-26 ICBC analysis)

Above is the daily chart of ICBC (1398.HK). After the crazy plunge of the market in previous weeks, the price of the bank dropped below 6.0 till as low as 5.88.

The green support up-trend line beautifully supported the price at 5.88 level and gave it some power to rebounce. However, it is currently testing a resistant level: 50%-level. There was bearish rejection yesterday, showing the selling power was higher than the buying one.

But MACD and EMA were touching with each other, there is possibility for a bullish cross to appear and it might lead the price to break the 50% level and gain higher.

Next resistant levels are 6.20 and then around 6.75. If the price could stay above 6.0 today, we could buy some shares of it. Then when it further breaks 6.20, we should add in and wait until around 6.75.

If the price breaks the support line instead, heading downwards and falling below 5.9, it is likely that it would drop until 5.60 before having any support.

JPHK Update (2010-11-25)

Vol. again (2010-11-25 DXY analysis)

Following the volatility I posted yesterday, I found that USD Index might have the chance of increased volatility as well. This might align with the whoel market vol jump.

The index just broke the red downtrend resistant line, which had successfully stopped DXY from surging higher for two times. However, the index is now testing the next resistant 80, which is both a technical resistance and a psychological resistance. It could not break it yesterday, but MACD is showing a upward trend which gives power for the index to break. It would probably test this level again today.

The reason I said the vol of DXY might jump is due to the fact that the index is facing short-ranged resistance and support. Break of either side will set the index into big movements, though there is still a possibility for a narrow trading range, leading to sideway market.

If the index breaks 80, it could gain up to 83.

JPHK Update (2010-11-24)

0122.HK Crocodile broke its support 0.74, closed at 0.77 today. Keep an eye on it and if breakout confirms, it worths buying. Please check the previous analysis on 0122.HK.

Volatility matters (2010-11-24 VIX analysis)

Last weekend I thought it would be the economic data to cause slumps in the markets, but it turned out to be the attack on South Korea by North Korea. Though technical analysis could tell you which way market will be moving, you can never know how it will be triggered. There might have no relationships between the attach and the market (and technical analysis), but such coincidence is like a magic to me...

Anyway, let's get back to the market. The sudden attack has caused to huge worry among investors about a possible war between the two sides of Korea which will definitely harm the global stock markets.

So I have checked the market volatility index VIX.



As you can see, the index once again tried to break the red wedge from below. It did try once last week but failed.

MACD crossed its EMA from below, showing a bullish signal here.

By using the fibonacci projection, the index is still currently resisted by 23.6%-level. If this level breaks and the breakout of wedge confirms, it could go as high as 31.33 (100%-level). Then... it must be something serious, which could affect the world and last for longer period, to trigger such jump in volatility.

Watch out of another bearish wave!

JPHK Update (2010-11-23)

HSI dropped to 22896.14 today. The support level is around 22700, so there are still around 200 points to go before any possibilities for rebouncing... Good luck everyone

Another watch-listed stock (2010-11-23 Li & Fung analysis)

HSI dropped by 0.35% to 23524.02 today. A inside bar appeared on the daily candlestick chart of the index, which signalled a further drop is more likely to persist. My prediction on the index this week was posted yesterday: Breakdown of HSI?

Today I found an interesting stock: 0494.HK Li & Fung.



Despite of the plunge in the major index, it surged over 2% yesterday. The price broke all three moving averages (10,20,50) at one candle and had a pretty cool power. MACD and EMA showed a bullish cross, giving BUY signal.

It is currently facing a big resistance. This is given by the fibonacci projections using the pennant breakout. 45.1 would be its next resistant level, and if you want to buy it, then wait till the price breaks this level.

I will put it under my watch list.

JPHK Update (2010-11-22)

Breakdown of HSI? (2010-11-22 HSI analysis)

After big drops in the beginning of last week, and some rebounces on Thursday and Friday, concerns on Ireland crisis had somehow eased. There was a rescue program offered by EU to Ireland which might be a good news to investors and the stock markets.

So let's have a bit forecast on next week's Hang Seng Index.

Daily Chart:


In this chart, HSI broke the red uptrend support on last Wednesday, and could not manage to get back above it. The 61.8%-fibonacci level somehow gave support to the index, but it could do nothing to avoid the breakdown.

MACD and its EMA dropped to level around 0, and MACD was getting flatter. There is a potential bullish signal.

So now what? Breakdown with potential MACD bullish cross?

Wait, let's check the weekly chart. It might give better hints.



The red line is a bit adjested in the weekly chart. We can see the index closed below the support line last week, but still it could be false breakdown.

Apart from the red line, we could hardly see a support until 22685, which is around 1,000 points below currently level. MACD and EMA had a clear bearish cross in weekly chart.

Combining both chart, I expect the index to further drop this week, breaking the support line in weekly chart. 22685 would be the first support.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-11-21)

Watch out of high volatility in HK Stock market on Wed and Thur this week.

23-Nov (Tuesday)
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY; OCT)
Canada Retail Sales (MoM; SEP)
US Gross Domestic Product (3Q) {Forecast: Increase by 0.4%}
US Personal Consumption (3Q) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.1%}
US Exisitng Home Sales (OCT) {Forecast: Decrease to -1.1% from 10%}

24-Nov (Wednesday)
Europe Purchasing Manager Index Composite (NOV)
UK Gross Domestic Product (3Q) {Forecast: Unchange for QoQ; Decrease by 0.2% fro YoY}
US Durable Goods Orders (OCT) {Forecast: Decrease to 0% from 3.5%}
US U of Michigan Confidence (NOV) {Forecast: Unchange}
US New Home Sales (MoM; OCT) {Forecast: Drop to 2.4% from 6.6%}

26-Nov (Friday)
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY; NOV)

JPHK Update (2010-11-19)

Famous brand's unpopular stock (2010-11-19 Crocodile analysis)

Today I will talk about a small-cap stock: 0122.HK Crocodile. The brand is of course nothing small, as Hong Kong people we should have heard of it since young. But its stock is definitely not a famous one.

Crocodile has been fluctuating quite a lot these few days, following the world's volatile market. 0.74 has been its resistance for long, and it could hardly break it. However, few days ago it once broke the resistance, but finally failed and dropped back below the line.

Given the shrank volume when it dropped from 0.74 last two times, and the trial recently, I would expect a breakout. If breakout confirms, it is hardly to predict its stop, so what we have to do is to keep track of it every day and read the tape to see whether the corporate investors are selling or not; or if you want, you can set a limit order such as 30% profits.

JPHK Update (2010-11-18)

Breakout (2010-11-18 AUD analysis)

Above is the 4-H chart of Aussie. It just broke the downtrend resistance few candles ago. MACD is heading upwards which supports the surge of AUD. It is a good time for long positions.

JPHK Update (2010-11-17)

Have to stop loss today.

JPHK

Sell 208.HK @ 1.31
Sell 2000.HK @ 1.50
Sell 1116.HK @ 0.50

Critical Moment (2010-11-17 SSEC analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC). After big drops in these few days, the index reached a support level. This level is given by the downtrend line the index has been following since October 2009, and broke in September 2010. It changed from resistant to support.

Another support is given by the fibonacci retracement, using the high in Q3 2009 and the low in Q3 2010. SSEC reaches the 50% of the retracement and there is supportive power to the index.

Now it is a critical moment to decide whether the bullish market ends or the drop is only corrections, followed by another bull wave. If SSEC plunges and breaks the downtrend line and fibonnaci level, we can expect it to slump to as low as 2,700. Level of 3,000 would be the upside resistant given by psychological power as well as 61.8%-fibonacci level.

JPHK Update (2010-11-16)

0833.HK dropped over 15% these two days... 2000.HK could still hold 1.57 level, so still no signal to sell yet.

JPHK

Sell 0916 @ 7.79
Sell 0833 @ 1.83

Time to stop loss? (2010-11-16 2000.HK and 0916.HK analysis)

Let's have a bit update on the two stocks I recommended before, which are both in JPHK: 2000.HK and 0916.HK.

2000.HK SIM Technology group:

The price of 2000.HK has been dropping every day these days, but it is still above the green downtrend line. We can see that currently it is heading towards the next support 1.57. This is a very strong support as it combines both the green line and the blue horizontal line. The price was able to keep above this level since August 2010, and if it breaks, we must have to stop loss.

0916.HK China Power Group Corporation Ltd.:

I have been mentioning the pennant of 0916.HK. Undoubtedly, its price has dropped out of the triangular area. Yesterday it struggled to go back into the green pennant but failed. Such crazy bearish rejection was not a good signal. If the price still could not get back into the green area, which is quite likely, we would have to cut loss.

JPHK Update (2010-11-15)

Fast Surge Fast Drop...

HSI Update (2010-11-14 HSI analysis)

Another week begins. Hang Seng Index dropped in the second half of last week after reaching new high in these two years.

Daily HSI:


From the daily chart, we could see that after reaching the upper line of pitch-fork, the index reversed its direction and plunged. Given by the fork and the previous peak, there is a support zone ranged from 23880 to 24170. Also, the index has been following the green uptrend line, and it would give supportive power to HSI at this zone as well.

However, MACD and EMA gave a bearish cross signal three days ago. Volume shrank too. These are no-good signals, which probably lead the index to a lower level, breaking the support zone.

Weekly HSI:


In early November, HSI tried to break the 100%-fibonacci level given by the projection using the pennant. However, the index could not make it and it dropped back below the 100%-level last week.

Though MACD and EMA did not given any signal, we could expect the price to drop back to 61.8%-level, which is around 22,940. Whether it is only correction or the bullish trend has reversed would need further evidence.


Combining both charts gives bad message about the stock market next week. It would first drop to around 24,000, then if there is no further support such as policies or data, the index could possibly drop to 23,000.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-11-14)

14 Nov (Sunday)
New Zealand Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP) {Forecast: Increase by 1.1%}
Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q P) {Forecast: Increase by 0.2%}

15 Nov (Monday)
US Advance Retail Sales (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1%}

16 Nov (Tuesday)
Australia Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (NOV 15)
UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}

17 Nov (Wednesday)
UK Bank of England Minutes (NOV)
UK Jobless Claims Change (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 0.7K}
US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

JPHK Update (2010-11-12)

Needa think of the strategy for next week during this weekend, but I got a lot of coursework to do...

China Market (2010-11-12 SSEC analysis)

HSI has been moving down and up and down this week. It is more or less the consolidation I mentioned on Monday. Instead of looking at it again, why not do analysis on the market that would affect HSI quite a lot.



Above is the daily chart of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC). The index broke the very long-term downtrend line (in red) in late Sept 2010, and it is definitely in bull market currently.

However, by using fibonacci projection on the green pennant, it has reached the 161.8% level and is facing resistant. The index is struggling to break this level, but it seems there is big selling so it could hardly break it.

MACD and EMA are whip-sawing so we could hardly tell what would happen next. However, the chance for dropping would be higher given MACD is at such high level.

2,950 would be the support, given by both the 100% fibs-level and the long-term red downtrend line.

3,481 was the high in 2009 and it would definitely be a big resistant for SSEC.

JPHK Update(2010-11-11)

Get Away? (2010-11-11 CCB analysis)

There were worries about China restricting amount of cash reserves in banks after People Bank of China announced an increase in interest rate. So let's do some analysis on one of the China banks.

Here is the daily chart of China Construction Bank (0939.HK):


The price jumped from 7.35 to as high as 8.00 in 3 days due to the rallying stock markets led by QE2.0 by Fed. However, after reaching level of 8.0, a shooting star candlestick pattern was formed. This showed that many investors were selling their shares, which therefore formed the bearish rejection.

Following the rejection, the price dropped in these 3 days. From the chart, it looks like that it would keep on falling. MACD and EMA gave bearish signal. So we could expect that CCB would fall back to the zone of 7.03-7.35. This is a support zone to the zone, if you are very optimistic investor and have the views that it would bounce, you could buy some shares at this zone.

However, the high-level of MACD makes me feel bad. Even if the price does not plunge through the zone, it is more likely that it would move within the zone, forming a trading range before MACD goes back to a normal level.

It would be better to stay away from it before any signal is given.

JPHK Update (2010-11-10)

US Correction? (2010-11-10 AAPL analysis)

From the daily chart of AAPL, the price is currently under consolidation after reaching the level of its last high. Yesterday there was a big black candle which was longer than the two previous candles, it was a bearish engulfment.

MACD and EMA gave a bearish cross, showing a lack of momentum to break the last high. ADX is currently 24, telling us that the strong upwards trend has already gone. Shrink in volume further gives hints about investors' passsion towards AAPL.

Indicators all give bad signals to this stock, correction is expected. 20-day moving average has been a support of the price since Oct 2010, so we could expect that there would be support at the level of around 310. If it breaks, then 300 would be the next support.

JPHK Update (2010-11-09)

Need to keep an eye on 0833.HK. Today's bearish rejection is not a good sign.

JPHK

Sell 5000shares of 2382.HK @ 2.25

Typical example for Pitch-fork (2010-11-09 GBP analysis)

Above is the 4-Hour chart of Pounds. It is a typical example for the use of pitch-fork. Starting from late October, Sterling has been rising along the purple fork, price bounced whenever it touched the bottom like of the fork.

Yesterday, GBP dropped out of the fork. We can see that MACD and its EMA gave a bearish signal as well. These two indicates that the trend for pounds has reversed. It is currently testing the support of 1.6105.

If this level breaks, it would keep sliding along the blue down-trend line. Next support would be at 1.60.

JPHK Update (2010-11-08)

Today's a good day.

2382.HK up 10.73%
0710.HK up 4.6%
1638.HK up 9.58%
0833.HK up 15.63%
1116.HK was suspended due to important acquisition

HSI Update (2010-11-08 HSI analysis)

Let's do some update on Hang Seng Index. As we can see from the daily chart above, 61.8% fibs level broke last week and next resistance level is at 26,400. Whether it would immediately reach there or not can be predicted by the other indicators.

MACD is moving towards its last high and would face a big resistant at that level. This certainly curbs the power of the bull wave of the index. Due to the sudden boost these few days, HSI broke the Bollinger Upper Band and is currently quite far away from the band.

On last Friday, there was a sell-off in the market, but the index was then pushed back up and closed near the open. This was a typical "hanging man" pattern, which signals a lower momentum of the bull. It is usually accompanied by plunges afterwards, so we can wait 2-3 days for confirmation.

Nevertheless, the bull is not that strong currently, so it is not a good time to buy any stocks right now. There should be corrections these few days.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-11-08)

10 Nov (Wednesday)
China Trade Balance {Forecast: Increased by more than USD7B)
U.K. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

11 Nov (Thursday)
Australia Employment Change (OCT) {Forecast: Decrease to 20K from 49.5K}
Australia Unemployment Rate (OCT) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.1%}
China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT) {Forecast: Increase by 0.4%}

12 Nov (Friday)
China Property Prices (OCT)
Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ; 3Q)
Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ; 3Q)
US U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV)

What a defense

Bernanke Defends Bond Purchases, Predicts Stronger Growth

By Steve Matthews and Timothy R. Homan - Nov 5, 2010 10:25 PM GMT+0000
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/bernanke-says-goal-of-federal-reserve-asset-purchases-is-faster-recovery-.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the central bank’s decision this week to buy an additional $600 billion in Treasuries, saying the unconventional policy will spur the U.S. recovery.

“We are showing insufficient stimulus,” Bernanke said today in remarks to college students in Jacksonville, Florida. Asset purchases have “the goal of reducing interest rates, providing more stimulus to the economy and, we hope, creating a faster recovery and an inflation rate consistent with long-run stability,” Bernanke said to students.

Bernanke came under fire today from officials in Germany, China, and Brazil, who said his plan to pump cash into the banking system may jar other economies and fail to fuel U.S. growth. Critics including Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge, have said Fed policy is encouraging investors to take on too much risk and threatens to undermine the dollar.

“It’s our problem as well if the U.S. is no longer certain that the old recipes don’t work anymore,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said today in Berlin. The Fed’s injection of $600 billion was “clueless” and won’t revive growth, he said.

Brazil’s central bank president, Henrique Meirelles, said “excess liquidity” in the U.S. economy is creating “risks for everyone.” In China, Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said “many countries are worried about the impact of the policy on their economies.” He also said the U.S. “owes us some explanation on their decision on quantitative easing.”

JPHK Update (2010-11-05)

I guess my portfolio is just somehow following the market. This is not enough, keep going!

Breakout (2010-11-05 Dow Jones Industrial Average Index analysis)

Global stock markets rallied after Fed's announcement for $600billion bond purchases. This Quantitative Easing helped push the stock markets, gold and silver, and USD was trading lower. Thanks to it, Aussie recorded new high of 1.1075. All the other currencies are surging crazily.

Let's focus on the stock markets.



Above is the daily chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average index. After rising along the green channel for two months, the index just broke the channel and was moving higher. It also broke the 61.8%-fibs level which once stopped the index once in April 2010.

If the breakout confirms, which means it could stay above the green channel for 1-2 more days, then next resistant level would be at 11788, which is around 3.1% from now. However, MACD is quite high; therefore, momentum is relatively lower and the index might walk sideways for several days before giving us further signals.

JPHK Update (2010-11-04)

JPHK Update (2010-11-03)

Targets:
2382.HK: 2.20
0208.HK: 1.48 (First), 1.58 (Second)
2000.HK: 2.13
0710.HK: 3.80
1638.HK: 1.8 (First), 2.4 (Second)
0916.HK: Triangle Breakout -> 9.3
3335.HK: 1.86 (First), 3-4 (Second)
3813.HK: 1.42 (First), 1.55 (Second)
0833.HK: 2.45
1116.HK: 0.72 (First), 1.22 (Second)

JPHK

Long 0833.HK 5000 shares @ 1.19
Long 1116.HK 16000 shares @ 0.55

Lack of momentum (2010-11-03 AUD analysis)

Well after Reserve Bank of Australia announced an increase of 0.25% in interest rate, AUD did not rise as normal. It might be because of its lack of momentum. Let's look at its 4-Hour chart.



After reaching new high of 1.0023, AUD fell back below 1.0 level. We can see from the chart that there are two resisting power at this level, the red uptrend line as well as the resistant zone by the last high.

MACD and EMA gives a bearish cross, telling us that AUD would probably fall afterwards. ADX is only 22, which means that the upwards trend is not that strong, although ADX is pointing upwards.

Aussie would probably end its crazy surge and start retreating.

GUEST POST: 3 Smart tips for foreign currency trading

If you want to earn some fast cash, you can go for foreign currency trading. Each trader needs certain tips in order to make money in the trade he has chosen. Foreign currency trading is a type of an investment in the currency from one country so that the value of currency may rise higher or lower in comparison to another country’s currency. This article provides you with tips you need to know in order to go for foreign currency trading.

Tips for foreign currency trading

Here are some tips you need to know in order to go for your foreign currency trading.

1. Choosing the currency pairs - Selection of the appropriate currency pair while trading is crucial. Some currency pairs are more risky in certain conditions while others are stable. It is better to select a pair that is compatible to your trading strategy, long term or short term. In case you want to go for a short-term investment, you easily make use of the unstable pairs. But if you have decided to go for long-term investment and cannot bear the sudden changes in prices, it is better to choose a pair that is more stable. However, make sure to do a thorough research on currency pairs and their performances before you choose a particular one.

2. Plan your strategy – Make sure to create a strategy and stick to it. You can read various articles, e-books, trading systems found in the market that may state to provide you with the success you want, almost overnight. Some of them may be good but it is always better to plan your own strategy in accordance to your individual situation. You can also try out the demo account before you go for trading currency in real. This will help you realize whether there are any loop-holes in your strategy.

3. Determine a stop – Make sure to determine your stop and your profit objective before you start entering a trade. You must place stops that generally are found on market information and not your account balance. However, if you find that a "proper" stop is too costly, it is better not to go for a trade.

Apart from the tips mentioned above, you must make sure understand that it is better not to enter trade at all may be due to lack of liquidity or extreme volatility. Make sure not to go into a new trade in the direction of a gap. These will prevent you from facing probable loses Thus, follow these tips and you can easily gain a success in your foreign currency trading.

JPHK Update (2010-11-02)

omg I could not wake up before the market closed. Keep an eye on 1116.HK I recommended in my last post.

Take a ride? (2010-11-02 Mayer Holdings analysis)

These days the stocks in Metal & Steel industry often surged quite a lot, so I have checked some of the members in this industry for any possible profitable trades. And I found it, Mayer Holdings (1116.HK).

The Group is principally engaged in manufacturing and trading of steel pipes, steel sheets and other products made of steel, property investment and leasing of aircrafts. With the China government pushing the property industry, more buildings are built and more steel are needed. This is one of the factors supporting this stock.

But anyway, let's get back to technical, or candlestick to be specific:



Above is the daily chart of Mayer Holdings. This stock has been moving in a trading range for a long time, though there were a few trials of breakout/breakdown.

One thing to mention is that the price reached its resistant area in early October. This is why I think that the stock still has rooms for further rise. If corporate investors were selling their shares after the jump in mid 2009, the price could hardly been pushed upwards. This might be a signal telling us that corporate investors were trying the strength of resistant at this level, and are preparing to break it.

The immediate plunge following it showed that the resistant power at that level was very great. Nevertheless, retail investors would try their best to sell their shares when the price finally climbed up back to their buying level.

The price just fell back to the bottom line of the channel. It is a good time for us to buy this stock. First, just dont' care about whether it will break 0.78 or not, the price could easily get back to somewhere at 0.70 as it is moving along the channel. Price now is 0.55 and the return is pretty cool.

If the resistant area breaks, then 1.00 and 1.25 would be the next two resistant levels to watch. Ready to take a ride again?

JPHK Update (2010-11-01)

Uncertain (2010-11-01 HSI analysis)

Start of November, good luck this month everyone. Time difference between Hong Kong and London changed from 7 hours to 8 hours yesterday due to the winter time, which means I would have to get up even earlier to keep track of the Hong Kong market.

Anyway, let's predict how HSI would move this week:


Above is the weekly chart of HSI. After touching the 61.8% fibs level three weeks ago, it dropped and could not break it. The index is currently still within the pitchfork, and above the red triangle which it broke before. One thing to be aware of is the MACD and its EMA. They have touching each other, so there will be possibility for a bearish cross unless HSI could surge in this week.

Neither the trendlines nor the levels can tell us about its movements this week, so we'd better do nothing. If it breaks the 61.8% fibs level (23,800), next resistant would be at 26,400. If it plunges instead, there will be support at 21,000 - 22,000 given by the pitchfork and the red trendline.