What to expect? (2011-11-30 EUR/USD analysis)

Beating-the-estimate consumer confidence helped to raise the world's equity indexes, and the volatility is moving in the expected way as well. The week should be easier to everyone.

Let's see the Euro today.
















Above is the 4-Hour EUR/USD chart.

After there might be some good measures to ease Europe debt problems, the price of Euro has finally stopped plunging and gained a bit. However, it reaches a strong resistance level given by the red down-trend line.

The chart could give you some hints what to do next and what to expect. I am having quite a good view on it, but it depends on which way it will breakout.

Good luck.

Time for a break? (2011-11-29 VIX analysis)

Any possible rebound? (2011-11-28 HSI analysis)

The global economic situation is just so bad, with another European country being downgraded. We can hardly have optimistic view on the markets.

Quite busy with coursework these days, so I am not too familiar with current market situations. I guess I'd rather post my charts for your reference than typing a lot.

Let's take a look at the charts.

Daily chart of HSI:















Not too many hints from daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:















On weekly chart, it clearly shows strong support area somewhere not far away from the level now. So I expect it would keep on dropping but would start rebounding this week.

Keep an eye on any possible strong rebounds after reaching 17,300, 16,500, 16,000. These are the critical levels to be aware of.

Good luck.

Important Economic data this week (2011-11-27)

28-Nov (Monday)
23:00 US New Home Sales (OCT) {Forecast:Unchanged}

29-Nov (Tuesday)
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}
23:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Rise}

30-Nov (Wednesday)
13:00 US Fed's Beige Book (Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions)
16:55 Germany Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
18:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}

1-Dec (Thursday)
03:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:45 Switzerland GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop from 0.4% to 0.1%}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Rise}

2-Dec (Friday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index
20:00 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged at 9%}

source: http://dailyfx.com

Ready to break (2011-11-25 Gold analysis)

Thanks to Angela Merkel's comment about not having Euro-bond, Euro plunged and that US Dollar Index rose. As pointed out yesterday, it should go up to around 80 before meeting a huge resistant, and the index is currently 79.12, so it might still be able to go up a bit.

Daily chart of Gold (XAU=):















Looks like it would be going to break either side. However, as shown on the chart, downside is pretty limited given the other dotted green line below the solid green line.

So the price is currently supported by the solid green line. If it breaks, then the next support level will be at around 1650, which is very strong.

If the price even breaks below 1650, I will have an extremely bearish view on it because that green dotted line represents a quite-long term bullish trend. Reversal of this trend means a hard slump.

On the other hand, the next resistant is at around 1755, provided by the red down-trend line. If this level breaks, I think it would go up to the previous high at around 1900.

These are the levels we have to be a

Rising currency (2011-11-24 DXY analysis)

Above is the 4-H chart of US Dollar Index. While the stock markets are plunging due to the crazy rise in bond yields in Europe, we can see that the US Dollar is surging quite a bit.

It breaks its pennant trend (shown in orange) and starts a new trend movement. The purple Pitchfork continues to be limiting the index's volatility.

The fibaonacci projection was drawn using the starting high and low of the orange pennant. The resistant at 38.2% shows that this projection is pretty accurate.

Therefore, we can expect the index to move up to 80. Short-term support is at around 79. These are the levels to be aware of.

According to the chart, it looks bullish due to the breakout, and I expect that it would go up to 80 in next few trading days.

Good luck.

Mess (2011-11-23 VIX analysis)

VIX is expected to be moving in range these days as well. It looks like the debt problem is yet to be solved...

Be aware of such volatile market.

Quick post on HSI (2011-11-21 HSI analysis)

I just came back to UK from HK and barely had time to write, but still I have drawn a chart for this week Hang Seng Index. Enjoy.

Daily chart of HSI:















Weekly chart of HSI:

-Notice-

I will be flying back to Hong Kong for Congregation Ceremony this week. I think I will be quite busy flying and preparing, so I will not have time to update this blog for a few days.

See you all next week!

Slightly more bullish view (2011-11-14 HSI analysis)

Last week there was a huge concern about Europe. Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned and a new government is being formed, led by Mario Monti. We'll soon know what they would implement to save the country and the whole EU.

Because of the sudden jump in Italian bond's yield last week, Hang Seng Index plunged over 5% on Thursday, reaching below 19,000. We can see there is really large volatility.

Let's see how this week will go.

Daily chart of Hang Seng Index (.HSI):















Again, not much clues from Daily chart. The most important thing was that the index broke down the short-term up-trend line last week.

We can expect a short-term bearish trend to the index. We might see it go back to some where around 17000.

In addition, MACD and EMA showed a potential bearish cross. But they still haven't crossed, so we need some more time to confirm.

While daily chart doesn't tell much, let's move on to weekly chart to find any good supports or resistances.

Weekly chart of HSI:















It looks clearer on weekly chart due to the many noises these days led by the fluctuating news. The index is still sliding gradually within the purple Pitchfork.

Indeed, last week it was well supported by the middle line of Pitchfork. This is a good sign showing that HSI is not that bad. It should rebound.

But where could it go up to? We can observe that 20-week Simple Moving Average resisted the index three times in a row. Therefore, we can still expect a resistant level at around 20300 given by this SMA.

If the index breaks downwards, the support is at around 17,900, 50% retracement level.

All in all, I think the middle line is pretty strong at the moment and is supporting the index greatly. This week the index should be moving upwards.

And this week will be dominated by the economic data, including GDP in Japan and Europe, as well as CPI in UK and US. On top of that, we have to be extremely careful with any breaking news from Europe.

Important Economic Data this week (2011-11-13)

14-Nov (Monday)
07:50 Japan GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Change from -0.5% to 1.5%}

15-Nov (Tuesday)
08:30 Australia Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes
15:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Change from 1.0% to 0.5%}
17:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}
18:00 Germany ZEW Survey {Forecast: More negative}
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Change from 1.1% to 0.3%}

16-Nov (Wednesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Increase}
18:00 Euro-Zoe Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}

18-Nov (Friday)
15:00 Germany Produce Prices {Forecast: Slight drop}
20:00 Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Drop from 3.2% to 2.7%}

Optimistic (2011-11-11 Li & Fung analysis)

Its another concern-and-eased news again, leading great volatility in the financial markets... really hard to predict these sudden news.
















Above is the daily chart of Li & Fung (0494.HK). Not too much to say about it, the chart looks pretty obvious.

Since January 2011, the stock price has been beautifully fallen along the orange downwards trending channel. There was even no false breakout.

In late August, we could see a breakout. This breakout was further confirmed by the increased volume. It showed that the bearish trend has ended.

Then, it moved along the red channel, slowly going upwards. It is normal that going up takes more time than plunging.

First resistant is at around 16.2-17, given by both the red up-trend line and the purple Pitchfork.

First support is at around 14, given by the lower Pitchfork line; next one will be at around 12.5, given by the red channel which should be the ultimate support.

My view on this stock is that it would be rising gradually along the red channel and the purple Pitchfork as well.

When the two intersect, if the economic situation allows, it might follow the Pitchfork instead of the red channel. So I am quite optimistic on Li & Fung.

Similar pattern formed (2011-11-10 XAG analysis)

Above is the daily chart of Silver (XAG). Just having reached the resistant level given by both the 50-day Simple Moving Average and 50% retracement level, the price drops a bit and is at around 34 now.

Obviously, an almost-the-same pattern as that in previous upward-trending channel is formed. Does it signal another plunge coming?

If so, 30 will be the first great support.

If not, 35 remains a strong resistance. 39 will be ultimate resistant given by the medium-term down-trend line.

Personally, I believe downward movement is more likely.

Breakdown again? (2011-11-09 VIX analysis)

The daily chart for Volatility Index is shown above. The index seems trying to break downwards again. Currently it has plunged below both the red channel and the green up-trend line, but is still being supported by 61.8% retracement level. If the index rebounds, then 35.5 would be next resistant level.

Further drop in USD (2011-11-08 DXY analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of US Dollar Index (DXY). The chart doesn't look too good. It looks like the index would be undergoing a slump in short time.

It probably follows the purple Pitchfork when falling, and together with the trend-lines, we can expect a support at around 75.3 given by the green up-trend line.

For the upside, obviously if the Pitchfork breaks, then the next resistant level will be given by the orange line, which has been acting well pretty well as critical level prediction tool.

Range (2011-11-07 HSI analysis)

Last week was another volatile week. Hang Seng Index jumped and slumped and jumped. Again, these days we must be extremely careful when making any investment decisions, especially derivatives which have even larger volatility.

So news from Europe basically dominates everything in the market now, and I still don't foresee an end on this in near future. Hang Seng Index will continue fluctuating because of the changing news.

Daily chart of HSI:















Daily chart doesn't tell much. Green line is the short-term upwards trending line currently providing support to the index.

As we can see, the next support level will be at around 19,500, and the value will be increasing in a pretty high pace because of the steep slope.

Indeed, 50% retracement level appeared to be a valid resistant to HSI. The index stopped rising at somewhere around this level and dropped. We can still expect it to resist this week, so resistant is at around 20,300.

As usual, the red line is the strong resistant line. This line holds for more than 6 months, and HSI could not break it easily. Therefore, the ultimate medium-term strong resistant is at 20,800.

Weekly chart of HSI:















On weekly chart, we can see that 20-week Simple Moving Average acts as resistant the the index, stopping HSI from surging further.

I drew another fibonacci retracement on this chart. The index is above 38.2% level now, which is around 19,500. This should be a valid support.

Moreover, the median line of the purple Pitchfork is also supporting HSI. So combining with daily chart, 19300-19500 is a quite strong support zone.

For the upside, 20-week SMA continues to be resistant, which is around 20,000. So short-term resistant is around 20000-20300, where the later level is given on daily chart.

20,8oo is ultimate resistant, this level is also suggested by the upper line of pitchfork on weekly chart. Breakout of this level would mean a further surge to more than 21,000-21,500.

All in all, there are quite strong resistances and supports to Hang Seng Index. I think in short-term it will be moving in a range, rather than breaking either side.

Important Economic Data this week (2011-11-06)

9-Nov (Wednesday)
10:00 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop from 6.1% to 5.4%}

10-Nov (Thursday)
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 European Central Bank publishes Nov Monthly Report
20:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Target
20:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged at 0.50%}

11-Nov (Friday)
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}

source: http://www.dailyfx.com

Good view on Euro (2011-11-04 EUR analysis)

Above is the 4-Hour chart of EUR/USD.

Euro probably continues to move up along the orange up-trend channel, given the bullish cross in MACD and a little divergence in Stochastic.

So the next resistant level is at around 1.392. This is the 50% retracement level using the high in 27-Oct and the low at 1-Nov.

Good luck.

Bad bad bad (2011-11-02 VIX analysis)

The VIX looks not good as well. Seems like it is going to boost quite a bit. The news from Greece on whether it would remain in Euros might cause slumps. Bad day is coming.

First post in Nov 2011 (2011-11-01 Gold analysis)

Gold should be following the up-trend Pitchfork and gradually approaches its previous high. Keep an eye on it.