Above is the daily chart of S&P 500 Index (SPX). It was well supported by the median line of the Pitchfork yesterday and it looks like it is going to rebound. Resistant is at around 1385 which is around 2.8% from current level.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Rebound in US ? (2012-05-10 SPX analysis)
Above is the daily chart of S&P 500 Index (SPX). It was well supported by the median line of the Pitchfork yesterday and it looks like it is going to rebound. Resistant is at around 1385 which is around 2.8% from current level.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Struggling (2012-05-08 EUR analysis)
Above is the 4-Hour chart of EUR. After the gap down last week, it is now gradually rising and has reached the gap. This gap will be a resistant to it, especially the upper bound which is also one of the Fibonacci levels. We can expect the 17-nation currency to struggle a bit at current level.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Difficult-to-predict week (2012-05-07 HSI analysis)
Last week the global stock market went quite differently. US and Europe markets basically only surged in the beginning and started plunging, mostly closed low (on weekly charts) on Friday due to the plummet that day.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) in general recorded a positive change last week, but we have to expect it to react to the slump in overseas markets last Friday. So today it is more likely to open low.
Gold dropped hardly as well, and it looks like that it is not following what I wrote on Thursday which I thought the support was strong. It is now within the down-trend channel and that it is still under bearish trend now.
This week there is not much important economic data released, so the movement should be more stable unless there are breaking news. Let's see what the charts tell.
Daily chart of HSI:
On this chart clearly we can see that the index broke out of the upper down-trend line, shown in green. With more than 3 days staying above the line, the breakout is more or less confirmed.
Given by both the lower up-trend green line and the Fibonacci level, we can find strong support at 21,000. This is a critical level for today which determines how HSI is going to move this week.
If it closes below 21,000, the extended down-trend green line would provide a further support to the index which is at around 20,500. This becomes the range of the index, and this range is widening.
If it continues to move upwards, it will head to 21,600 and most likely it can even break it and attempt to reach 22,100.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, we can see that the index breaks out of the down-trend channel, shown in green. The breakout has to be confirmed by further observation.
If this week it closes below 20,800, that means it drops back within the channel and the breakout is false. It would be continuing its bearish trend.
On the other hand, the Fibonacci level at 21,600 remains a resistant to the index and it will another time that HSI attempts to break it. Given such many trials, it is quite likely that HSI could make it this time.
So this week is pretty hard to predict, let's see and watch and react to the movements.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) in general recorded a positive change last week, but we have to expect it to react to the slump in overseas markets last Friday. So today it is more likely to open low.
Gold dropped hardly as well, and it looks like that it is not following what I wrote on Thursday which I thought the support was strong. It is now within the down-trend channel and that it is still under bearish trend now.
This week there is not much important economic data released, so the movement should be more stable unless there are breaking news. Let's see what the charts tell.
Daily chart of HSI:
On this chart clearly we can see that the index broke out of the upper down-trend line, shown in green. With more than 3 days staying above the line, the breakout is more or less confirmed.
Given by both the lower up-trend green line and the Fibonacci level, we can find strong support at 21,000. This is a critical level for today which determines how HSI is going to move this week.
If it closes below 21,000, the extended down-trend green line would provide a further support to the index which is at around 20,500. This becomes the range of the index, and this range is widening.
If it continues to move upwards, it will head to 21,600 and most likely it can even break it and attempt to reach 22,100.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, we can see that the index breaks out of the down-trend channel, shown in green. The breakout has to be confirmed by further observation.
If this week it closes below 20,800, that means it drops back within the channel and the breakout is false. It would be continuing its bearish trend.
On the other hand, the Fibonacci level at 21,600 remains a resistant to the index and it will another time that HSI attempts to break it. Given such many trials, it is quite likely that HSI could make it this time.
So this week is pretty hard to predict, let's see and watch and react to the movements.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Important Economics data this week (2012-05-06)
7-May (Monday)
09:30 Australia Retail Sales {Forecast: Unchanged}
13:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
10-May (Thursday)
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
16:00 European Central Bank publishes May monthly report
19:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
19:00 UK BOE Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
11-May (Friday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
21:55 U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Unchanged}
09:30 Australia Retail Sales {Forecast: Unchanged}
13:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
10-May (Thursday)
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
16:00 European Central Bank publishes May monthly report
19:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
19:00 UK BOE Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
11-May (Friday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight increase}
21:55 U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Unchanged}
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Bullish trend on Gold ? (2012-05-03 Gold analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU). It just broke out from the down-trend channel and is heading higher. However, the previous breakout level resisted its surge, and now it is in between a short range of support and resistant. Look like it is more likely to break 1665 and would attempt to reach 1750 or even 1800.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
What volatility tells (2012-05-02 VIX analysis)
Above is the daily chart of volatility index (.VIX). It looks like the index would gradually rise in near future but as the range narrows it is more likely to break out. So it might mean a gradually bullish trend in the stock market followed by plunges. Would keep on updating on this.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Plummeting US Dollar (2012-05-01 DXY analysis)
Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (.DXY). It appears that it has just confirmed the flag breakdown by the rejection of re-entering the flag, by the lower up-trend line. Target will be at 75.5 but the green medium-term support will give strong support too. So watch out the level given by this line.
Have a good holiday.
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