Another Chance to Long EUR (2010-08-21 EUR analysis)

It looks like here comes another chance for me to buy some cheap Euros for my trip in Europe in Jan-2011. Though I would not expect a slump as larch as that in May, I believe Euro could drop to around 1.2527 (61.8%-fibs).

EUR just broke the cyan uptrend line. Combining with a bearish divergence in MACD happened in July, I believe Euro would tumble. The big retreat in early August gave us the fibonacci projection on the chart. This projection gives us reference to predict how much Euro will drop --- 61.8% 1.25. The red lines form a short-term channel of movements in the near future.

Possible Breakout (2010-08-20 China Resources analysis)

Searching through HSI componenets to find any stocks to buy into JPHK, I found that China Resources (0291.HK) just reached its 1yr high, but unfortunately it was still under the green short-term uptrend line. If the trend line breaks, we could expect China Resources to rise till 3.5 suggested by fibs.

Neverthelss, thanks to jobless claims and shrinking manufacturing in Philadelphia area, the US markets plunged yesterday. S&P dropped 1.69% while DJI tumbled 1.39%. We can hardly expect Hong Kong stocks to gain today.

China Resources would have to pullback after reaching the resistance.

Virtual Portfolio (JPHK update)

I will start up a virtual portfolio with HKD100,000 principle. This portfolio would consist of only Hong Kong stocks. I will post once I decided to add a stock and would update the portfolio value every trading day.

The first stock would probably be CSCL (2866.HK). I am looking at the level for the triangle breakout in weekly chart. The price is still within the triangle, but if it close above around 3.05 tomorrow then I would probably hold this in my virtual portfolio.

To simplify, I will call it JPHK (Jeffrey's Portfolio Hong Kong).

Levels to watch (2010-08-18 CSCL analysis)

On 15-Aug, I made an analysis on CSCL (2866.HK). If you have followed my post, probably you have bought it at around 2.96 (Close price on Monday). And now there are a few levels to watch out.



Around 3.1 is the next resistance. Once it breaks, it is likely that it will surge till 3.39. For those who missed the chance last time, this is the level you have to look at.

If the price is resisted at this level, the support is at around 2.90. Break of this level is the signal for us to stop loss.

New Component (2010-08-17 Belle International analysis)

After seasonal review by Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited, two stocks were added into HSI components, namely Belle International (1880.HK) and China Coal (1898.HK), effective on 6-Sep. Funds including Tracker Funds and Hedge Funds will undoubtedly buy these stocks in order to keep track of the performance of HSI. Regarding this, these two stocks had surged more than 3% yesterday. If you would like to LONG Belle International, I would recommend you to observe few more days. Let's see the daily chart of 1880.HK.



The price surely broke the last 3-year high of about 13.05. However, a doji was formed yesterday after resisted by the pitchfork. The message behind the doji is dependent on the candlestick today.

If Belle International opens low and plunge, then a typical bearish doji star would appear giving signal of trend reversal.

On the other hand, if it breaks the fork upwards today, it shows a strong upward trend which we could buy this stock for some profits.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-08-16)

17/8 (Tue)
UK Consumer Price Index (JUL)
US Producer Price Index (JUL)

19/8 (Thurs)
UK Retail Sales (JUL)
US Philadelphia Fed (AUG) : Survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions.

Not a good time yet (2010-08-15 CSCL analysis)

One of my friends asked for my opinions on CSCL (2866.HK). My suggestion is: it's still not the right time yet.

Daily Chart:

Obviously, the price broke the support line two days ago. Based on this, it is definitely not a good idea to long CSCL now. It is currently testing this support again. If it can return back above the support line, then it provides good evidence for NOT TURNING to bearish yet.

Indeed, what makes me optimistic is the weekly chart, let's see:


A beautiful triangle is formed with the candlesticks in 2010. Triangle breakout (upwards) would lead the price to the last high 3.67, further breakout would have to be accompanied by a bullish market.

My suggestion according to these two charts is: If the price of CSCL rises till around 2.95 these two days, and close above 2.92, then it would be time to long CSCL. $3 is a big resistance. The strategy is: after buying the stocks, if it drops back below 2.90, we have to stop loss. If it breaks $3, then just wait till $3.6.

Of course, if it can't get back above the support level, we could do nothing but buying a put warrant.