Monday, August 20, 2012

Still Bearish view (2012-08-20 HSI analysis)

Last week despite the economic data released, the stock market basically moved sideways without big fluctuations. Volume continued to be really low as investors mostly decided to think twice before acting in the markets.

Hang Seng Index reached the resistant line two weeks ago, but last week it did not plunge. The index remained near the resistant line, but since there is no any good catalyst for boosting it, long positions are still very risky.

Daily chart of HSI:
 















Daily chart did not change much compared with that posted last week. After reaching the resistant provided by both the Fibonacci level and the trend line, the index moved sideways and could not break out.

It is currently being supported by the 10-day SMA. However, as the support is not expected to be strong, it is quite likely that the index would drop below the current level.

Also, volume remained low which implies that the index does not have enough power to breakout. It would need some more time to save power.

Weekly chart of HSI:















Weekly chart did not change much as well. The index is currently at the resistant line and cannot break out.

With lowered volume, chance of plummeting is high. The SMAs are converging and will give support at around 19500.

Then, strong and ultimate support will be at 18650 and 17800, though they are still too far to be considered.

So this week it should be a bearish week. Or at least it will move sideways.

No comments:

Post a Comment