Monday, August 13, 2012

A bear week (2012-08-13 HSI analysis)

After two-week of busy days packed with applying jobs and writing dissertation, finally I have some time to watch the markets and update this blog (though the two are still not done). Anyway, last week Hang Seng Index reached its resistant and fell. It looks like it still does not have enough momentum to break out.

This week there will be lots of economic figures being revealed including GDPs and CPIs. The charts suggest that the data would be pretty negative leading to another plunge of the stock markets in the globe.

Let's take a look at this week's HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














The index reached the red solid trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci level last week and was resisted. Volume was low despite the surge which suggests that HSI probably would slump.

Obviously going into long position at this moment would be extremely risky. On the other hand, the index is very likely to fall quite a lot as there is no strong support nearby.

Next support shown on daily chart would be at 19300 which is the 50-day Simple Moving Average. 10-day and 20-day SMAs look pretty weak these days. Given that the current level is 20100, it is likely that the index would drop 800 points.

Ultimate support is given by the green solid trend line at around 19000. So 19000-19300 will be a very strong support zone to the index.

Weekly chart of HSI:















On weekly chart, though the red trend line is different from that on daily chart, this line also contributed to resisting the index from going higher last week.

As suggested above, HSI has no momentum to go any further and that it would fall. If so, the simple moving averages will start to converge and provide a support at around 19500, which is also the 38.2% retracement level.

There will be strong support at 18600 and ultimate support is at 17800, the first one might be an "intra-week" low as daily chart suggests strong support at 19000.

Both daily chart and weekly chart suggest that the index would fall, so if the index does not open very low today, it might be a good idea to enter short positions. The upside risk is very limited. Stop loss is of course break out of the resistant line but it is quite unlikely.

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