Monday, June 18, 2012

Would it break out ? (2012-06-18 HSI analysis)

Last week due to the many different news, the global stock markets were just fluctuating quite a lot. One day stimulus speculation brought the markets upwards, and another day debt concerns pulled the markets downwards. Overall, markets surged last week, mainly due to the big rise on Friday.

Gold kept on rising last week, with four consecutive days of upward movement. But silver did not follow this trend, it moved pretty much sideways. GBP broke out the flag as I mentioned, and surged greatly last Friday.

The most important expected news this week would be Fed's speech this coming Thursday (GMT+8, which is Wednesday in US/Europe). We would have to see what they are going to say about US's economy. Other expected economic data would have little effect on the stock markets.

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).

Daily chart of HSI:
 















As I have mentioned last Monday, the resistant was at around 19200. Last Friday, the index has reached this level and closed at about the resistant line.

This level is treated as a quite strong resistant. However, given the big surge in US last Friday, whether the index will just break out is still unknown.

From my point of view, the market in general is still bearish. Normal news is not powerful enough to lead HSI to break out. So I would expect the index to drop after reaching this resistant level. If so, first support would be at 18700 which is the simple moving averages. They are not too strong as usual, stronger support is found at 18000.

On the other hand, if the index surges above the middle line, the next resistant would be at the upper line of Pitchfork. The level is at around 19950, and this level is dropping.


Weekly chart of HSI:















Weekly chart doesn't tell much. It only gives the same bound as mentioned last week. The fluctuating in between is quite unpredictable.

Good luck.

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