Monday, June 25, 2012

Doing nothing might be the best thing to do (2012-06-25 HSI analysis)

Last week there wasn't much happening, the stock markets just went up and down. Asian markets plunged on Friday but US markets closed higher, so Asian markets today should be opening high, which means that the indexes basically move sideways last week.

Commodities experienced a big plummet on Thursday, Oil and Gold prices dropped greatly. As posted, gold price had already plunged through the lower bound of the flag, but still one more day is needed to confirmed its break down (though it is quite likely).

This week there will be quite a lot of data coming out, including CPI, unemployment rates and GDPs. Especially on Asian's Friday and US's Thursday, the markets is expected to fluctuate quite a lot.

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).


Daily chart of HSI:
 














HSI is still pretty much following the Pitchfork. It was supported well by the mid-line last Friday. The lower red-line seems to be less powerful than it looks like.

As mentioned, the index is expected to open high today. So it looks like it could remain above the mid-line and would go up a bit again.

There isn't much to tell from daily chart, but keep in mind that if the index breaks below the level of around 18900 (which is a decreasing support), it could easily plunges to below 18000, at the lower line of the Pitchfork.


Weekly chart of HSI:















Same as last week, the index is still moving between the two boundaries, shown in red and green. These two indicate its ultimate support and resistant.

HSI has just been resisted by the 38.2% Fibonacci level plus 10-week Simple Moving Average, but still as these are expected to be a weaker resistant, it is hard to tell whether the index would go up or down.

Also, we can see that it is exactly at the middle of the two boundaries. Buying or selling both has a pretty high risk. Therefore, I would suggest keeping away from the market for a while before everything is clear enough.

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