Resisted again (2011-09-23 VIX analysis)

Global bear market as mentioned on Bloomberg news... 18200 breaks and the next support would be 15900. Looks nothing too serious happened these days, the recent plunges were just driven by Twist Operation in US and again concerns and worries. Is it really news that can bring the indexes down to record lows in like 2 years?
















Above is the daily chart of Volatility Index (.VIX). I made it to a longer period in order to see a general trend.

Actually there was no specific trends. We can see that VIX repeated the process of moving lower along a trend line, breaking out to a high level, and undergoing another downwards trend.

Breakouts are indeed predictable. We can see that MACD was always showing a divergence pattern when VIX was moving downwards.

This time it looks like there is a small divergence in these few days. But the difference is this time the index is spiking but MACD is shrinking.

Though there was a breakout of the green wedge, I somehow predict a slump back into this wedge and the index would reach the support at around 30.

Upside risk is still at 50, which is an extremely strong level resisting the index. It really depends on whether there is any news that is horrible enough for most investors to sell their stocks, but I still don't foresee one in very near future.