Thursday, September 15, 2011
Pause in bullish trend (2011-09-15 DXY analysis)
Above is the daily chart of US Dollar Index (.DXY). This anti-euro index majorly consists of 58.6% Euro, 12.6% Yen, 11.9% Sterling and remaining percentage of Canadian dollar, Krona and Franc.
Especially after Franc was pegged with Euro, the feature of "anti-euro" would be slightly more obvious (Franc was only 3.6% of the index).
So on the chart, DXY broke out the green down-trend line last week, and started a bullish trend.
MACD and RSI both surged greatly, reaching a very high level which probably temporarily stops the index from going any further. DXY is more likely to consolidate a bit now.
I have added Bollinger Band with all typical settings as well. We can see that DXY tried to break out this highest line but failed, and two days ago it dropped below the highest line.
This tells us that the buying force wasn't so strong and that the USD is not yet strong enough to break higher. It is more likely that DXY would drop now.
Support is at around 76 given by both the 38.2% retracement and 10-day Simple Moving Average.
Upside is quite limited, with 77 being the next resistant (50% retracement).
Nevertheless, there is no doubt that the index is under strong bullish trend. So this is only a pause in the middle of the trend and the index would continue to rally.
張貼者:
Jeffrey Sha
於
7:04 AM
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