Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Weak pattern (2011-08-31 CCB analysis)
















Above is the daily chart of China Construction Bank CCB (0939.HK).

Starting from May 2011, the price has been sliding along the red down-trend line, and could not surge beyond this line.

In late July and early August, led by the general markets, CCB just slumped and reached as low as just above 5.0.

Until now, there was a double bottom quickly formed. Though normally the two troughs have to be at least 4-week apart in order to be a real double bottom, this could be treated as a weak one.

This pattern signals a trend reversal, but as its weak one, I would treat it as a rebound pattern instead.

But the red line is another concern. If CCB jumps over the resistant, it could reach 6.24, which is suggested by both the fibonacci retracement and the double bottom pattern.

If not, the price is more likely to get back to 5.0 and forms the third bottom. Somehow such stocks are led by the whole stock markets.

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