Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Extreme market (2011-08-23 Gold analysis)
While the stock markets are kind of fluctuating, with HSI having a big V-shape yesterday, Gold just keeps on surging.
Gold price was still 1,600 in mid July, but currently it reaches 1,900, which means around 19% rise in just a month. This is quite rare in commodity markets.
Trying to guess its next resistant, I input quite a lot of indicators. However, with such a sudden jump, trend-lines are not too helpful.
Moreover, we can see that MACD and RSI are soaring to extreme levels. They become quite meaningless when dealing with such trends.
Next, I added a fibonacci projection using the orange wedge, and surprisingly something popped up. At all important levels (100%, 161.8%, 261.8%), there seemed to be some resisting forces.
So this projection might help us figure out the next resistant level: around 1,960, the 423.6% level. It looks like reaching 2,000 might be quite difficult this time.
The price is around 1,900 currently, and there are only around 60 points left. I don't suggest investors to LONG gold at this moment until it appears to break out even the 423.6% level.
張貼者:
Jeffrey Sha
於
10:27 AM
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