Thursday, June 16, 2011

What USD tells us (2011-06-16 DXY analysis)

1043.HK had a nice false breakout yesterday, it still isn't good time for buying given the poor market conditions...

Concerns about Greek debt had further pulled the Euros downwards, leading higher US Dollar and hence DXY Index. Let's see.



Above is the daily chat of US Dollar Index (.DXY). DXY containing over 50% of EURO/USD, there is no surprise that the plunge of EUR resulted in the surge of DXY.

On the daily chart, we can see that the index just breaks the red down-trend line, which DXY has remained below since Jan 2011.

MACD and its EMA gave a BUY signal as the former one crosses the later one from below. RSI is pretty high so this could bother the surging of the dollar.

Through drawing a fibonacci projection using the previous low and high, 77.07 is the next resistance level. However, the previous high could probably act as a resistant as well, which is at around 76.2. So these two levels are critical ones.

Of course, it still takes one to two more days to confirm the breakout, and whether it has turned into bullish trend. If breakout happens, then it has big impact on other markets.

Rise in USD would attract more investors to invest on money market by removing money from stocks and commodities, so these two markets would drop. Bond yield drops and bond price rises. Euros would definitely drop (as it is the major component of DXY).

Good luck.

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