Anything happens next? (2011-06-09 VIX analysis)

Yesterday Hang Seng Index experienced another almost 1% slump, reaching the upper line of the horizontal area identified on Tuesday's post on daily chart, and breaking down the up-trend line on weekly chart.



Above is the daily chart of volatility index (.VIX). We could use it to predict the volatility of HSI too.

Red line is the very long-term down-trend line providing resistance force to the index. However, at this stage it seems not that influential.

Currently the trading range of VIX is broadening, indicated by the purple lines on the above chart. The support level is at around 17.

On the other hand, the three simple moving averages are converging together. This signals a larger movement as shown before as well, either to the upside or slump.

MACD is moving upwards slowly. This would probably tell us that VIX is going to surge instead of dropping. Would it break the upper purple line this time?

If it does, then the next resistance will be at the red line, at around 24, which is an extremely big movement by S&P. As the lower line is at an extremely low level, I don't think break down looks possible.

Maybe something's gonna be revealed.