High vol coming (2011-04-07 EUR analysis)

HSI made another 0.56% surge yesterday, it is most likely that it could be able to stay above the resistance line. However, I still could not think of what is supporting the market when there is not much good news.

Today I'm going to take about forex.



Above is the daily chart of EUR/USD. Instead of using 4-hour as usual, I post daily chart this time as I think that there is potential position trade that could last for weeks.

Starting from Jan 2011, price of Euros keeps on snowballing, along the red flag. It is almost time for the currency to reach the end of the flag.

In fact, some of you might see that the price actually breaks the previous high, which is a very strong resistance level. However, the price is still under the limitation of the flag, and I believe that this flag would have much larger impact on EUR.

We should not simply buy Euro because of its breakout of the previous high. Volatility would inevitably jump here, either going upwards or falling.

MACD is moving flat for a few months, and RSI is currently at high level. Rising power of EUR would be weaker now. Therefore, I am not optimistic on the price.

Prepare for the high vol.