After the great slump on Tuesday, last week Hong Kong market was under consolidation period, during which Hang Seng Index kept on rising and falling without significant overall change.
However, such sideway market leads to significant break down on daily chart, and no break out on weekly chart. Let's see what happened and what will happen.
Daily chart of HSI:
The red line is the short-term up-trend line which the index has been following for the previous month.
Last week, HSI finally could not hold above this red line and broke down. This implies that the short-term strong bullish trend has come to an end.
Luckily though, the index was supported at around 24,000, by both the 23.6% retracement and psychological effect, possibly as well as 20-day Simple Moving Average.
These factors look reliable, but once if HSI breaks down further, the next support will be at the level of 23,600 (the green line plus 38.2% retracement). This level will be even more reliable.
The upside resistance is of course the red line. Thanks to the fact that the slope of this line is pretty large, the resistance will be increasing in a high speed. So the resistance this week could possibly reach the previous high at around 24,450.
Weekly chart of HSI:
Weekly chart often offers a clearer image about the market. After reaching the red resistance, the index failed to break out and tumbled.
Currently it is hanging right in the middle of the diverging triangle (formed by the red and green lines). It is ambiguous whether it would continue forming black stick or reverse its direction.
The only things we know are both the resistance and support. Trading range will inevitably be widened, leading to a dropping support and a higher resistance.
For this week, resistance is still at around 24,450 and support is at around 23,600, which is also suggested in daily chart.
So besides the fact that we don't know how it would move, we are quite clear about both the upside and downside limits and could take actions easily once these levels are reached.
No comments:
Post a Comment