While everyone talking about EUR and the attack by speculators on it, we could not miss out one currency that has dropped quite a lot in the past few months --- Sterling. Seeing the below, we could find out that actually GBP has dropped over 8% in just half year and it was really horrible. It seems that there might be investors speculating on GBP too.
Doing some research on such an unusual-moving currency, I found out some data about the forecast of price on GBP by some companies. Let's see:
I circled the three groups that had the most pessmistic view towards GBP: Banque Cantonale Vaudoise Group, Morgan Stanley and UBS. Interestingly, two out of three base in Switzerland. UBS has changed her views after Sterling dropping to 1.48 and said it would go further downwards. Morgan Stanley said concerns on UK's shaky policies will further drag GBP to lower position.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs and National Australia Bank predicted a surge in February shown in the poll and said GBP would go as high as 1.85.
The main reason for this strange movement is due to the growing concerns and debt in U.K. However, do they really contribute so much to such "expectations"? is it simply due to the speculations with huge amount of money? If so, looking at UBS and Morgan Stanley's active words, it seems like the drop is not yet over.
On contrary, Goldman and NAB do not have much words on Sterling, does it show that this time, they are not involved in the speculations?
Nevertheless, the next sign for movement of GBP should be the figures released about U.K. If there is no strong evidence on U.K. having measures to reduce debt, it will be a good time for another large drop in Sterling.
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