Very short-term bullish (2012-01-16 HSI analysis)

Last week was a great week for Hang Seng Index. The index opened at 18588, reached highest of 19261 and closed at 19204. There was around 600 points rise in the week.

Though on Friday France was downgraded from AAA to AA+ by S&P and Euro plunged, the stock market was very slightly impacted by this news and after the weekend we would expect an even weaker influence on Hong Kong market.

There will be quite a lot of economic data revealed this week, and a few more important ones are expected to harm the stock markets, such as drop in China Real GDP and rise in UK Jobless Claims.

Let's see this week's Hang Seng Index (.HSI).

Daily chart of HSI:















After breaking out the orange down-trend line, we can somehow confirm a short-term upwards trending for Hang Seng Index.

This movement is indicated by the purple Pitchfork which did successfully support the index with its lower boundary.

A resistant is at around 19500 given by the 50% retracement level, but it is expected to be a weak one. A stronger resistant is at 20300.

For the downside, support is at 19000, which is around 200 points from now.

Weekly chart of HSI:















Last week the index successfully broke out the median line of the purple pitchfork. Though the fork is declining, we can somehow expect a short-term upwards trend due to the momentum.

38.2% retracement at around 19500-19600 looks very weak and that the index should break it without much difficulty. This is the same as the situation on daily chart.

Resistant by the upper boundary of the pitchfork is at 20000. This is expected to be a very strong resistant and that the index could hardly break it.

Therefore, for this week HSI is more likely to first surge and then reach 20000 and then starts to drop along this pitchfork again.

Overall trend is still pretty bearish to the index.