Thursday, October 20, 2011

Gambling (2011-10-20 Galaxy Entertainment Group analysis)

Stock markets fluctuate again, due to good news from Apple and bad news from France and Spain. Directions are hard to catch, and good luck to all traders. The news/event-risk is pretty horrible.

Today I will take about one of the companies in a pretty volatile industry these days. This industry is Macao Gaming.
















Above is the daily chart of Galaxy Entertainment Group (0027.HK). I guess most of you should have heard of it, its hotel facilities and casino in Macao are simply amazing.

Back to the chart, this stock has been moving upwards since the last quarter in 2008. Starting from 2010, it snowballed along the orange upwards trending line and reached as high as 22.45 in August 2011.

The stock price broke the orange up-trend line in mid-September when the concerns in Europe appeared to be extremely serious and non-solvable.

However, in early October, the price managed to climb back above this line. This tells us that the overall bullish trend still hasn't ended.

On the other hand, the dropping peaks since August 2011 form another downwards trending line shown in green.

This week, the price broke this green line, showing that its short-term bearish trend may have changed.

Two days ago the price plunged, but was well supported by both the green and orange lines and rebounded yesterday.

We can see a strong buying force when the support was reached. Besides, MACD is heading upwards but it is still below zero. The momentum for further spikes still exists.

Therefore, I have a bullish view on this stock. 50% retracement resisted the stock price, but I think it would soon break. 61.8% is at around 17.2, I think this is the first resistant for the stock.

For the downside, I think 14-14.5 is a strong support zone. Once the price breaks this area and reaches lower, it would probably slump to 12.

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