Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Ready for crazy markets? (2011-03-16 VIX analysis)

Following the Japanese earthquake, there were explosions at nuclear power plant in Fukushima. Besides direct damage, radiation level is expected to rise in Japan and probably arrive at other places.

With such tragedy, global investors started to panic and the world stock markets plunged greatly. Nikkei fell 10.55%, FTSE100 1.38%.... HSI was able to retreat a bit after reaching as low as 22253 (-4.68%), and closed at 22678. This aligned with the support level at around 22,400.

Nevertheless, volatility in every single stock market jumped. And what does VIX tell us?



Above is the daily chart of Volatility Index of S&P500 Index Options. Not knowing whether it is good or bad, what we know is that it breaks the long-term resistant, and has reached 6-month high yesterday.

Bad thing is that the next resistance is at around 28, which means it still has so room for further surging. Volatility could break higher.

The area from 21-23 becomes a strong support which, we can see on the chart that, did succesfully support the index several times since June 2010.

RSI is a bit high, there might be some corrections given by consolidation along the support area. Nevertheless, it means that the market will be more volatile than that in past few months.

The green line will start to provide support above the area as time passes by. I will further update it in future.

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