Friday, October 1, 2010

Worth-buying stock (2010-10-01 Sim Tech analysis)

Today is holiday in China, but not in UK. I just had my first lecture on Technical Analysis, and it was amazing. I will probably start getting into wave theory like Elliot which I am not good at, and would start using it after some time.

So I discovered another worth-buying stock: Sim Tech (2000.HK). Though it is safer to wait for longer time, I am kind of confident about a potential short-term rise.



We could see the price basically has been following the triangle in lime. After surging to as high as 2.48 in April 2010, it plunged and we might ask whether it was the end and whether the corporate investors were selling. The Bearish rejection in August probably told us the answer.

When analyzing small stocks, we would have to think like we are corporate investors, and only by guessing what they are thinking can we win. We are not going to win them, we are just trying to sit in the same boat with them and grab profits.

Back to the stock. The bearish rejection in August showed that these investors were trying how high the price could get up to. Clearly there were many retails investors who bought it at the level 2.0-2.5, and they have been having a hard time seeing the value of their values getting lower and lower. Therefore, they would just sell all their shares when breaking-even or even losing a bit. This is the major obstacle for the stock to surge greatly.

To eliminate this resistant power, the corporate investors would have to set high volatility to scare them away. Pushing the price upwards is one of the many methods to get rid of such resistant. When it's the time, the price will be lifted without much obstacles and corporate investors can gain easily.

Sim Tech is clearly one of the stocks which are being "played" by corporate investors. It seems like its almost time to boost the price. The convergence of SMAs could probably give a reason (or excuse) for the rocket, just like the previous times.

I would add this stock into my portfolio on Monday, of course depending on how it perform. Try to wait till closing before buying it, so it would be less risky.

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