JPHK Update (2010-11-30)

Not yet bottomed (2010-11-30 EUR analysis)

Concerns on PIIGS did not stop after situation in Ireland improved. Investors switched their awareness on Portugal and Spain, and EU could hardly aid them anymore if they had problems on their financial status, especially Spain. This would of course give a hard push to Euro to a even lower levels.

The price of the 16-nation currency keeps on moving lower along the green downwards channel. Touching the bottom line, it is currently rebouncing. However, given such bad news on situations in PIIGS, I could hardly expect that it has already bottomed.

Using fibonacci projection, it is heading towards its last low, and would probably reach around 1.30. However, MACD and EMA are at its lowest level, a small rebouncing and consolidation is likely, but it could hardly break the channel. So when it reaches somewhere around the second or third line, we could sell Euros and anticipate its continued drop.

JPHK Update (2010-11-29)

Uncertain (2010-11-29 HSI analysis)

From around 23,500 at the beginning of last week, Hang Seng Index has dropped around 600 points and closed at 22,877. Both the conflicts between N.Korea and S.Korea and the debt crisis in Ireland (actually PIIGS before any concrete figures showing improvement in their financial status) helped set the market downwards.

Would HSI keep on dropping in the following week? It depends on whether it could stay above the support which is around 100-200 points from the current level.

Daily chart of HSI:


After the index broke its supportive uptrend line at around 23,600 last week, it plunged and reached the next support level.

Currently it is at around the support the zone, with support given by both the longer-term uptrend line and the fibonacci 50% level.

MACD dropped below 0, which would greatly reduce its momentum to keep on slumping.

Weekly chart of HSI:


For this longer timeframe, a bearish cross by MACD and its EMA just appeared, signalling a bearish market would follow.

On this chart, the green support line would be at the level of around 22,400. Again, the fibs 100% level by using projection on the wedge and the uptrend line provides the power to support the index.

It's hard to predict what would happen next week. Probably it would keep on falling to the support zone, and would have a bit consolidation. If the support breaks and the index drops below 22,400, we can have a even more bearish view. If not, it is quite risky to make any decisions for both long/short.

Important Economic Data (2010-11-27)

To be more clear on the timeline, I decided to use HKT for listing the economic data announcement below.

29-Nov (Monday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Unchange}

30-Nov (Tuesday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate {Forecast: Unchange}
18:00 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (OCT) {Forecast: Unchange}
21:30 Canada GDP (SEP; MoM) {Forecast: Drop}
22:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager (NOV) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.7}
23:00 US Consumer Confidence (NOV) {Forecast: Increase}

1-Dec (Wednesday)
08:30 Australia GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.7%}
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing (NOV) {Forecast: Increase by 0.1}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing (NOV) {Forecast: Drop by 0.4}

2-Dec (Thursday)
14:45 Switzerland GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease by 0.4%}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (3Q; QoQ) {Forecast: Unchange}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC) {Forecast: Unchange}

3-Dec (Friday)
20:00 Canada Unemployment Rate (NOV) {Forecast: Unchange}
21:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls (NOV) {Forecast: Drop}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate (NOV) {Forecast: Unchange}

JPHK Update (2010-11-26)

Crocodile 0122.HK surged over 13% today. I have missed the first buying point. Let's see whether the price can stay above 0.74 next Monday and breakout confirms, it is still worth buying.

Hanging in the middle (2010-11-26 ICBC analysis)

Above is the daily chart of ICBC (1398.HK). After the crazy plunge of the market in previous weeks, the price of the bank dropped below 6.0 till as low as 5.88.

The green support up-trend line beautifully supported the price at 5.88 level and gave it some power to rebounce. However, it is currently testing a resistant level: 50%-level. There was bearish rejection yesterday, showing the selling power was higher than the buying one.

But MACD and EMA were touching with each other, there is possibility for a bullish cross to appear and it might lead the price to break the 50% level and gain higher.

Next resistant levels are 6.20 and then around 6.75. If the price could stay above 6.0 today, we could buy some shares of it. Then when it further breaks 6.20, we should add in and wait until around 6.75.

If the price breaks the support line instead, heading downwards and falling below 5.9, it is likely that it would drop until 5.60 before having any support.