Benchmark (2010-07-30 HSBC analysis)

Unfortunately 21 Holdings plunged 6% today, making us not able to long it for potential double profits. But this stock would be in my watch-list anyway.

Today let's check the largest HSI component --- HSBC (0005.HK).



HSBC pulled back a bit today after a small false breakout, but is still following the bullish trend. It still maintains in the two pitchforks. The support area would be at 77.9 - 78.6, this is a good long zone if HSBC drops to this area in next two days. Then it is likely to have a real breakout this time.

Time to Rocket? (2010-07-29 21Holdings analysis)

I found an interesting small stock --- 21Holdings (1003.HK). It surged 17% today. Going deeply into it, I found that although it kept dropping in last four months, the volume was not high, which meant those corporate investors were not distributing their shares to retail investors. It may even give hints that they are currently collecting the shares, and preparing to push up the stock price. 17% is surely just a penny to them. If the price could break the 50SMA tomorrow, I would expect the price reaching 0.154, or even higher.

Good luck.

Rise in Capital Goods Orders

Capital Goods Orders in U.S. Climb, Signaling Investment Pickup

By Timothy R. Homan - Jul 28, 2010 8:57 PM GMT+0800
url: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-28/capital-goods-orders-in-u-s-climb-signaling-investment-pickup.html

Orders and shipments for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft climbed in June, signaling investment by U.S. businesses picked up heading into the second half of the year.

Such bookings increased 0.6 percent after jumping 4.6 percent in May, more than previously reported, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Total orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, unexpectedly dropped 1 percent, depressed by a decrease in demand for aircraft which is often volatile.

Eaton Corp. is among manufacturers benefiting from a pickup in demand as companies in the U.S. and abroad update equipment that is helping to support the recovery. The gains will partially compensate for a slowdown in consumer spending that is causing the world’s largest economy to cool heading into the second half of the year.

“Businesses are, in general, still investing,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, who projected a decline in durable goods orders excluding transportation. “If they want to compete, they have to invest. The recovery is continuing.”

Stock-index futures dropped after the report showed weakness in overall orders. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent to 1,108.6 at 8:56 a.m. Treasury securities rose, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 3.04 percent from 3.05 percent late yesterday.

Looking forward to break (2010-07-27 JPY analysis)

Let's switch to something with smaller timeframe. USDJPY surged after the news about on low Consumer Confidence, and is testing its resistance.

1H chart:


4H chart:


Many people may try to short after looking at the 1H chart. However, after seeing the 4H chart, I have different view on it. I think it might be time to break the red resistance channel and fibs level. Before breaking, the price might move horizontally for a while, so MACD and EMA would drop a bit in 1H chart. Let's keep an eye on it. Once it breaks, we can try to long some.

Time: 11:36, it breaks the channel. I have longed USDJPY:
Open: 87.931; Stop: 87.755; Limit: 88.245; Risk-reward ratio 2:1

Going to sleep as it's 23:39 in HK!

Breakout? (2010-07-27 361 Degrees analysis)

The first data was announced, stating that Consumer Confidence in US dropped to 5-month low, which brought a stop to the strong bullish in US markets. For Hong Kong traders, becareful of a correction due to this data in HSI.

Following my post recommending 361Degrees (1361.HK) on 2010/07/26 High Potential, the stock surged 3.9% to 5.80, which broke the triangle with increased volume.



But we have to wait for 2-3 days until confirming its bullish trend. I suggest you to sell some of them for little profits, and look for potential rise. If breakout confirms, I would aim as high as 6.7 which is last high or even 7.0 as estimated by Fibs projection.

Beware of this "data week"

Series of important data will be released this week, beware of high volatility in both stock markets and forex:

27/7
US Consumer Confidence

28/7
Germany CPI
Australia CPI
US Durable Good Orders
US Durables Ex Transportation
New Zealand Rate Decision

29/7
Germany Unemployment rate
Japan Jobless rate
Japan CPI

30/7
US GDP

High potential (2010-07-26 361 Degrees analysis)

Today I would recommend a stock with high potential --- 361 Degrees (1361.HK). This company is engaged in manufacturing and sales of sporting goods, and is one of the partners/sponsors of 16th Asian Game in Guangzhou. The group entered into an agreement with CCTV to be the title sponsor of China Table Tennis Super League from 2009 to 2013 and cooperated with QQ.com , a large instant messaging service network in Asia, Sohu. com and Xiaonei.com to promote internet sports programmes.

Looking from the fundamental side, we can easily find that 361 Degrees carry great potential to develop sporting goods in China and is very likely to succeed due to its aggressive approach and the increasing demand of these products in China, when people in China are getting wealthier.



From technical side, it is forming a symmetric triangle, and has just rebounced from its triangle bottom. This would possibly lead the price to surge greatly. If 361 Degrees breaks the triangle from underneath, the first resistance would be at 6 but is likely to break too.

Combining both fundamental and technical, then we can expect even breaking 6.7 (last high) when Asia Games take place.