Above is the daily chart of CSCL (2866.HK). In this kind of highly-volatile market, this stock seems to have quite good potential for gradual rise.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Gradual rise ? (2012-01-11 2866.HK analysis)
Above is the daily chart of CSCL (2866.HK). In this kind of highly-volatile market, this stock seems to have quite good potential for gradual rise.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Volatility break out? (2012-01-10 VIX analysis)
Above is the daily chart of volatility index. We can see that the index has reached the target level estimated using the orange flag.
We might expect a break out of the red channel in days.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Uncertain week (2012-01-09 HSI analysis)
The first week of 2012 was not-too-good not-too-bad. Hang Seng Index opened high but then it pared gains and closed somewhere near its previous close.
This week there are not many influential economic data coming out. The meeting between Angela Merkel and Sarkozy today should be going to affect the stock markets greatly. It is publicly expected that they would come up with some positive measures, or at least promises.
Let's see this week's HSI.
Daily chart of HSI:
I could say it is kind of messy on daily chart. The index turned out not to breaking out or down the flag, and now it is bounded somehow by both lines.
Last week it tried to break the red up-trend line, but at the end it closed below this line. It seems like it is still being strongly resisted.
On the other hand, HSI was kind of supported by the green down-trend line and also the three simple moving averages. Besides trying to find another indicator, I drew a Pitchfork. This will be giving us hints about how HSI will move if the index is trying to go up.
I would conclude that the index is within an uncertainty zone right now. Upper and lower bounds are narrowing, and there is no large force bringing it to surge or slump.
Short-term risk to trade is pretty high as we can hardly predict its movement.
Weekly chart of HSI:
Hang Seng Index tried to break out the median line of Pitchfork last week, but obviously it failed.
It remains at the narrowing range from 17800-18500. This bound is still expected to work and the index might still be within this range this week.
We would have to further observe when it is going to break out or down for possible trend reversal or trend continuation.
Therefore, it might be a good choice not to participate this week to further confirm the trend.
This week there are not many influential economic data coming out. The meeting between Angela Merkel and Sarkozy today should be going to affect the stock markets greatly. It is publicly expected that they would come up with some positive measures, or at least promises.
Let's see this week's HSI.
Daily chart of HSI:
I could say it is kind of messy on daily chart. The index turned out not to breaking out or down the flag, and now it is bounded somehow by both lines.
Last week it tried to break the red up-trend line, but at the end it closed below this line. It seems like it is still being strongly resisted.
On the other hand, HSI was kind of supported by the green down-trend line and also the three simple moving averages. Besides trying to find another indicator, I drew a Pitchfork. This will be giving us hints about how HSI will move if the index is trying to go up.
I would conclude that the index is within an uncertainty zone right now. Upper and lower bounds are narrowing, and there is no large force bringing it to surge or slump.
Short-term risk to trade is pretty high as we can hardly predict its movement.
Weekly chart of HSI:
Hang Seng Index tried to break out the median line of Pitchfork last week, but obviously it failed.
It remains at the narrowing range from 17800-18500. This bound is still expected to work and the index might still be within this range this week.
We would have to further observe when it is going to break out or down for possible trend reversal or trend continuation.
Therefore, it might be a good choice not to participate this week to further confirm the trend.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-01-08)
9-Jan (Monday)
China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight rise}
11-Jan (Wednesday)
16:00 Germany Real GDP Growth {Forecast: Drop from 3.6% to 3.0%}
12-Jan (Thursday)
03:00 US Fed's Beige Book
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 UK Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Unchanged}
13-Jan (Friday)
China Real GDP, Retail Sales
17:30 UK Producer Price Index
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
source: http://www.dailyfx.com
China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
14:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Slight rise}
11-Jan (Wednesday)
16:00 Germany Real GDP Growth {Forecast: Drop from 3.6% to 3.0%}
12-Jan (Thursday)
03:00 US Fed's Beige Book
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 UK Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Unchanged}
13-Jan (Friday)
China Real GDP, Retail Sales
17:30 UK Producer Price Index
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
source: http://www.dailyfx.com
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Keep on dropping (2012-01-05 XAU analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU=). The price is having a bit rebound now but it is expected to drop further as it has reached a strong resistant zone.
The movement will be limited by the purple Pitchfork; therefore, the plunge won't be in a sudden but pretty gently instead.
Weak support is at around 1560 and strong support is found at 1515. As mentioned last time, the target level estimated by the flag breakdown is around 1320.
Gold seems to be not a good tool to invest in unless you are going to short it.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Wait for further surge (2012-01-04 GBP/USD analysis)
Above is the 4-H chart of GBP/USD. A strong resistant zone is found at around 1.572-1.577.
On the other hand, the price should be following the purple Pitchfork. Therefore, the support is at around 1.563 currently, and the level is rising sharply too.
Stochastic lines show a bearish cross. GBP probably stops surging and calms down for a while. We should be aware of 1.563 and see whether it would further rocket after reaching this level.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
First week of 2012! (2012-01-03 HSI analysis)
Happy New Year to all of you. Wish you all a great and happy 2012.
Hang Seng Index closed at 18,434 at the end of 2011, high and low in the year are 24,468 and 16,170 respectively. In general, the index dropped around 4,000 points in 2011 due to the Europe debt crisis.
Situation is not very improved up till now. There are still no concrete measures to solve the problems. 2012 predicted to be another tough year, not to forget the myth that the world will end in Dec-2012.
Anyway, let's take a look at HSI charts though they are not very different from last week's.
Daily chart of HSI:
Hang Seng Index dropped below the lower red line again in the last two trading days in 2011. However, it should not be treated a formal break down as it was almost at the end of the flag.
Nevertheless, the lower red line has become a resistant and there is a very short-term support given by the green line. The short-term trading range is 18000-18500.
MACD is getting flat, but there isn't much hints given by it.
Let's move on to weekly chart.
Weekly chart of HSI:
As shown in the chart, after reaching the strong resistant level last week, the index plunged. This level was given by 10-week and 20-week Simple Moving Averages as well as the median line of Pitchfork, so it was quite strong.
Next support will be at around 17,800 given by 50% retracement level. This level has been successful in supporting HSI for a few times.
If the index breaks even lower, ultimate support will be at 16,700. This is a very strong support as the index has been above the green for a long time.
For upside, there is still strong resistant at around 18,600. It is still considered a big obstacle to the index.
It seems like the index will be moving sideways to start off 2012.
Hang Seng Index closed at 18,434 at the end of 2011, high and low in the year are 24,468 and 16,170 respectively. In general, the index dropped around 4,000 points in 2011 due to the Europe debt crisis.
Situation is not very improved up till now. There are still no concrete measures to solve the problems. 2012 predicted to be another tough year, not to forget the myth that the world will end in Dec-2012.
Anyway, let's take a look at HSI charts though they are not very different from last week's.
Daily chart of HSI:
Hang Seng Index dropped below the lower red line again in the last two trading days in 2011. However, it should not be treated a formal break down as it was almost at the end of the flag.
Nevertheless, the lower red line has become a resistant and there is a very short-term support given by the green line. The short-term trading range is 18000-18500.
MACD is getting flat, but there isn't much hints given by it.
Let's move on to weekly chart.
Weekly chart of HSI:
As shown in the chart, after reaching the strong resistant level last week, the index plunged. This level was given by 10-week and 20-week Simple Moving Averages as well as the median line of Pitchfork, so it was quite strong.
Next support will be at around 17,800 given by 50% retracement level. This level has been successful in supporting HSI for a few times.
If the index breaks even lower, ultimate support will be at 16,700. This is a very strong support as the index has been above the green for a long time.
For upside, there is still strong resistant at around 18,600. It is still considered a big obstacle to the index.
It seems like the index will be moving sideways to start off 2012.
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