13-Dec (Tuesday)
17:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}
18:00 Germany ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Slight rise}
14-Dec (Wednesday)
03:15 US FOMC Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
15-Dec (Thursday)
16:30 Swiss National Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 European Central Bank Publishes Dec. Monthly Report
17:30 Bank of England Inflation (outlook)
18:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
16-Dec (Friday)
21:30 US Consumer Price Index {Forecast; Unchanged}
source: http://www.dailyfx.com
Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
Resistant will be tested again (2011-12-09 DXY analysis)
The resistant on Hang Seng Index is so strong that it could hardly break out. Thanks to ECB and Germany, stock markets in US plunged greatly yesterday night. Today HSI would have to follow, so it would close below the resistant line. Will update further on the index next Monday.
Today let's look at the USD Index (DXY).
Everything is on the chart. Looks like the US Dollar has a bit strength to test the resistant again.
Today let's look at the USD Index (DXY).
Everything is on the chart. Looks like the US Dollar has a bit strength to test the resistant again.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Going to move big? (2011-12-08 Gold analysis)
Weekly chart of Gold (XAU=) showed that the price is converging. It seems like there will be larger movements in Gold price, probably accompanied by big news which also causes huge movements in stock markets.
Watch out.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Not much from Volatility (2011-12-07 VIX analysis)
Not much hints from Volatility Index. But still we have to keep an eye on any possible gap up these two days which make it form a nice Island.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Good week coming? (2011-12-05 HSI analysis)
After the crazy over-1000 points surge last Thursday, Hang Seng Index finally got back above 19,000. No bad news is good news these days.
While the economy might appear to be better this month, with good figures from Consumer Confidence and Sales, the underlying sovereign debt crisis has yet to be solved before a concrete decision and consensus are made within EU. Even if they do, the economy could take years to recover the whole world could be under recession for a pretty long time.
Nevertheless, stock markets are not too bad, but not too good either. At least in Hong Kong there are quite a lot of IPOs coming and investors could pick one to two with good potential to develop, given that they have done their homework. IPOs are not my main focus but I have to admit that it is quite interesting after trying several times to analyze the companies.
Anyway, let's take a look at this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).
Daily chart of HSI:
The chart looks quite plain, but I guess given such messy days with high volatility, not making the chart looks more complicated that it should is a wiser way to predict.
The index is currently facing a resistant provided by the red down-trend line, and it looks quite strong, HSI could hardly break this.
However, if it does, the next resistant level will be at around 20,300 as suggested by the retracement level.
On the other hand, the green line keeps on supporting the index. So if it does not break out, we could expect it to move in the narrowing range between 18,000 - 19,000.
Weekly chart of HSI:
As usual, the Pitchfork currently dominates the chart. The index moves quite beautifully within this fork.
It reached the median line last week, and faced strong resistance. It looks like that the index could hardly break out.
However, if breakout really happens, the next resistant level suggested on weekly chart is 19,500, as compared with 20,300 as suggested on daily chart.
Downside support is at around 17,900, not far from 18,000 on daily chart. So we could expect strong support at 18,000.
BUT one important thing is that this week there are several Economic data releasing, and most of them show good signs to the stock markets.
For example, interest rate cut from Australia and Europe, rise in GDP in Australia, and drop in CPI and PPI in China. These could lead the stock markets upwards, and possibly break the red line as well. So this week we are looking at 19,500 and 20,300.
If it does happen, this is a good example of looking at both economic data and technical.
While the economy might appear to be better this month, with good figures from Consumer Confidence and Sales, the underlying sovereign debt crisis has yet to be solved before a concrete decision and consensus are made within EU. Even if they do, the economy could take years to recover the whole world could be under recession for a pretty long time.
Nevertheless, stock markets are not too bad, but not too good either. At least in Hong Kong there are quite a lot of IPOs coming and investors could pick one to two with good potential to develop, given that they have done their homework. IPOs are not my main focus but I have to admit that it is quite interesting after trying several times to analyze the companies.
Anyway, let's take a look at this week's Hang Seng Index (HSI).
Daily chart of HSI:
The chart looks quite plain, but I guess given such messy days with high volatility, not making the chart looks more complicated that it should is a wiser way to predict.
The index is currently facing a resistant provided by the red down-trend line, and it looks quite strong, HSI could hardly break this.
However, if it does, the next resistant level will be at around 20,300 as suggested by the retracement level.
On the other hand, the green line keeps on supporting the index. So if it does not break out, we could expect it to move in the narrowing range between 18,000 - 19,000.
Weekly chart of HSI:
As usual, the Pitchfork currently dominates the chart. The index moves quite beautifully within this fork.
It reached the median line last week, and faced strong resistance. It looks like that the index could hardly break out.
However, if breakout really happens, the next resistant level suggested on weekly chart is 19,500, as compared with 20,300 as suggested on daily chart.
Downside support is at around 17,900, not far from 18,000 on daily chart. So we could expect strong support at 18,000.
BUT one important thing is that this week there are several Economic data releasing, and most of them show good signs to the stock markets.
For example, interest rate cut from Australia and Europe, rise in GDP in Australia, and drop in CPI and PPI in China. These could lead the stock markets upwards, and possibly break the red line as well. So this week we are looking at 19,500 and 20,300.
If it does happen, this is a good example of looking at both economic data and technical.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Important Economic Data this week (2011-12-04)
5-Dec (Monday)
18:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) {Forecast: Rise from -0.7% to 0.1%}
6-Dec (Tuesday)
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop from 4.50% to 4.25%}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
7-Dec (Wednesday)
08:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Increase from 1.4% to 2.3%}
8-Dec (Thursday)
04:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop from 1.25% to 1.0%}
9-Dec (Friday)
07:50 Japan GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop}
10:00 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop from 5.5% to 4.5%}
10:00 China Producer Price Index {Forecast: Drop from 5.0% to 3.3%}
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
18:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) {Forecast: Rise from -0.7% to 0.1%}
6-Dec (Tuesday)
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop from 4.50% to 4.25%}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
7-Dec (Wednesday)
08:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Increase from 1.4% to 2.3%}
8-Dec (Thursday)
04:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop from 1.25% to 1.0%}
9-Dec (Friday)
07:50 Japan GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop}
10:00 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop from 5.5% to 4.5%}
10:00 China Producer Price Index {Forecast: Drop from 5.0% to 3.3%}
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
Friday, December 2, 2011
Commodity (2011-12-02 Silver analysis)
HSI well reached 19,000 as mentioned on Monday, though such movement was kind of unpredictable. Will further update how the index would go next week on Monday.
Today let's take a look at Silver (XAG=).
From the daily chart, the price has reach the red downwards trending line. This might tell us that the price is going to plunge further, especially after it has crossed lower the previous green upwards trending channel.
50% retracement appears to be a strong support, so the price might consolidate one to two days there. If it keeps on dropping, then previous low at around 26 will be its ultimate support.
For the upside, if it successfully breaks the red uptrend line, its previous peak at around 35.6 will be strong resistant.
So keep an eye on these levels.
Today let's take a look at Silver (XAG=).
From the daily chart, the price has reach the red downwards trending line. This might tell us that the price is going to plunge further, especially after it has crossed lower the previous green upwards trending channel.
50% retracement appears to be a strong support, so the price might consolidate one to two days there. If it keeps on dropping, then previous low at around 26 will be its ultimate support.
For the upside, if it successfully breaks the red uptrend line, its previous peak at around 35.6 will be strong resistant.
So keep an eye on these levels.
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