Nice start 1229.HK
Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Take a ride (2010-12-03 1229.HK analysis)
So the index surged another 200 points again yesterday, and my anticipation on the market this week was wrong. DJIA and HSI both break the 50-day Simple Moving Average, and SSEC is moving close to it.
Many small-cap stocks rose crazily these days, so its time to find any chance to make profits in short period. I found today a good small-cap stock: 1229.HK China Sonangol
This stock surged over 10% yesterday, and you might feel bad with it. But I do think the boost creates opportunity for it to climb even higher.
Let's check the daily chart of 1229.HK
Clearly, the price was brought to the resistance level 1.688 yesterday, and it is now critical time on confirming whether it would break or not. If the price breaks this level, theoretically the next resistant is at 1.827.
However, I would predict a further break up to around 2.2.
On 22-Sept, the price went up to as high as 1.80. Then due to strong selling power, it could no longer stay there and plunged. Clearly corporate investors were trying to test the resisting power at that level due to the shares bought by retail investors in June to August. If they are not going to lift the price, they would not have such action.
And these two days the volume was surprisingly high. The price broke all the 10,20,50-moving averages with only two candles, and together with the high volume, the momentum for this stock is large. This would definitely enhance the rise of the stock.
Therefore, if the price breaks 1.688 tomorrow, it has great potential to give you more than 15% in few days.
Many small-cap stocks rose crazily these days, so its time to find any chance to make profits in short period. I found today a good small-cap stock: 1229.HK China Sonangol
This stock surged over 10% yesterday, and you might feel bad with it. But I do think the boost creates opportunity for it to climb even higher.
Let's check the daily chart of 1229.HK
Clearly, the price was brought to the resistance level 1.688 yesterday, and it is now critical time on confirming whether it would break or not. If the price breaks this level, theoretically the next resistant is at 1.827.
However, I would predict a further break up to around 2.2.
On 22-Sept, the price went up to as high as 1.80. Then due to strong selling power, it could no longer stay there and plunged. Clearly corporate investors were trying to test the resisting power at that level due to the shares bought by retail investors in June to August. If they are not going to lift the price, they would not have such action.
And these two days the volume was surprisingly high. The price broke all the 10,20,50-moving averages with only two candles, and together with the high volume, the momentum for this stock is large. This would definitely enhance the rise of the stock.
Therefore, if the price breaks 1.688 tomorrow, it has great potential to give you more than 15% in few days.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Chance missed (2010-12-02 VIX analysis)
Crocodile (0122.HK) jumped another 17% yesterday. Though I have recommended it in my previous post in mid-November (Famous brand's unpopular stock), I failed in recognizing the time to buy it and missed the chance to make around 35% profits in a short period. Recently I have been working hard on my CFA Level I examination and I spend less time on tracking the market.
Anyway, last week I said the volatility would be likely to jump as it broke the downtrend resistant. Major stock markets did fluctuate a lot this week. So let's have a bit update on the Volatility Index.
Well the index seems to be fluctuating a lot as well. The volatility of the volatility surges :) However, undoubtedly the index broke the red downtrend line. It could drop back and test it, which has changed to support, but I would expect an increase instead.
MACD has reversed its movement to downwards, but still there is not bearish cross. Even if there is a cross, at this level, the bearish power is not that strong and the signal is not strong as well.
So it is likely to go higher, giving more extreme moves of S&P500 index, which would lead global markets to fluctuate as well. Just watch out.
Anyway, last week I said the volatility would be likely to jump as it broke the downtrend resistant. Major stock markets did fluctuate a lot this week. So let's have a bit update on the Volatility Index.
Well the index seems to be fluctuating a lot as well. The volatility of the volatility surges :) However, undoubtedly the index broke the red downtrend line. It could drop back and test it, which has changed to support, but I would expect an increase instead.
MACD has reversed its movement to downwards, but still there is not bearish cross. Even if there is a cross, at this level, the bearish power is not that strong and the signal is not strong as well.
So it is likely to go higher, giving more extreme moves of S&P500 index, which would lead global markets to fluctuate as well. Just watch out.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Bearish (2010-12-01 CNOOC analysis)
It's December everyone. Historic trends show that December is often a good month for the stock market, maybe due to the Christmas and everyone is in a good mood.
However, I could hardly see good signs for boost in stock markets in the coming days, at least in the first few trading days of this Dec. As I posted two days ago, I expected the HSI to keep on dropping to somewhere around 22400-22600.
Today I checked one of the components in Hang Seng Index --- CNOOC 0883.HK.
The stock price has bben rising along the red trendline for few months. Few days ago, the line finally broke. While staying below the line, the price struggled to climb back above, but obviously it failed. It shows that there is a very strong selling force at this level.
MACD and EMA are both moving lower, giving no reverse sign. I would be bearish on CNOOC. It seems like the next support is around 15.6.
But nevertheless, such stock has quite strong correlation with the market index. Once HSI reaches the support zone, we could not short this stock unless the index breaks the zone.
However, I could hardly see good signs for boost in stock markets in the coming days, at least in the first few trading days of this Dec. As I posted two days ago, I expected the HSI to keep on dropping to somewhere around 22400-22600.
Today I checked one of the components in Hang Seng Index --- CNOOC 0883.HK.
The stock price has bben rising along the red trendline for few months. Few days ago, the line finally broke. While staying below the line, the price struggled to climb back above, but obviously it failed. It shows that there is a very strong selling force at this level.
MACD and EMA are both moving lower, giving no reverse sign. I would be bearish on CNOOC. It seems like the next support is around 15.6.
But nevertheless, such stock has quite strong correlation with the market index. Once HSI reaches the support zone, we could not short this stock unless the index breaks the zone.
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