1st G-7 Country this year (2010-06-07 USDCAD analysis)

Canada is the first G-7 country to raise interest rate. As we can see, USDCAD rallied in the last few days meaning a plunge in CAD. Given the crisis warning in Hungary which led to panic tumble in most currencies against USD, CAD, however, might be able stand still and surged.



As we can see in the chart, USDCAD appears to be topping as blocked by the downtrend channel. It would be more likely to fall.

Similarity? (2010-06-06 HSI analysis)

Bearish view continued. The 250 Simple Moving average has crossed the 50 SMA from underneath. As we can see, when they crossed like this last time, HSI dropped from 20545 to 11050. I would not predict such a great plunge this time as there is no any "crisis" which is as serious as the financial tsunami.



The next support would be at around 17671. Further stumble might follow. Given such similar condition, shorting HSI would be a great choice.

Free Fall again (2010-06-05 EUR analysis)

With a surge of 14 basis point in Hungary's CDS, EUR broke its low of 1.20. This indicates that 1.20 could no longer give large support to EUR and it would even slide further.



Though it might look too pessimistic, I would predict the next stop at around 1.14.

China Construction Bank (2010-06-04 0939.HK analysis)

Hang Seng Index closed down a little today. The somehow horizontal moves these days show an unclear view on the future movements of the global markets. Any pieces of breaking news would lead to a large fluctuation. Below is the daily chart for CCB (0939.HK).



I have drawn two trend-lines, one longer (red) and one shorter (green). They give different interpretations. Also, Stochastic and MACD show different signals too.

However, combining all these indicators, I would predict a slow drop in price of CCB following the green line and might eventually break it. Although in MACD, the two lines cross, they did not cross at low levels, but at around 0. This weakens the bullish signal given by MACD. Both lines in stochastic is heading downwards. This signals a further drop later.

CCB price might rise a bit to the red line. That would be a good place to sell.

Too much attention? (2010-06-03 Gold analysis)

I heard some people saying that gold was gaining too much attention which gave a hard block for its great rally. After working on some analysis, I would predict a great rise these few weeks instead.



We can see that Gold broke its last high but not being able to stay above and slided down after touching the fibs line. It is now testing that horizontal line again. It is more likely for it to be able to outbreak and rocket due to the pressure by the blue uptrend line. The red long-term line and fibs would give us hints about where it would reach this time, which is about 1324. Bullish is still not over.

HSBC (2010-06-02 0005.HK analysis)

Seeing such a great plunge in the markets, one of my friends would like to place a bet on HSBC. My suggestion would be: it is still not the time yet.



HSBC was supported after dropping to 9-month low few days ago. We can see that MACD lines cross, which might indicate a reverse of trend. However, RSI is still above 50. It shows that HSBC is not as oversold as we thought. The MACD cross might provide evidence for a little rebound. However, the trend is still pointing downwards. A better price to place the bet would be at around 61.

No change for interest rate in Australia (2010-06-01 AUD analysis)

Australia decided not to change its interest rate, which matched the expectations from the public. Below is the 4-H chart for Aussie.



There is a great support area between the interception of green and red trendlines and the horizontal line. We would expect a rebound in technical terms. Breakthrough of this area would lead to the support at 0.8276 and 0.8190.

Later Canada would be having a meeting on monetary policy. Market expects an increase in interest rate due to the good economic conditions (increase of 1.5% in Q1 GDP). This might lead to fluctuations for CAD. Keep an eye on CAD.