Finally I am back at Hong Kong and would continue my dissertation here. As I didn't spend much time on stock market last week, it should be better for me to catch up with stuff this week before posting any analysis. Good luck to all of you.
Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Monday, July 23, 2012
Not going to be a good week (2012-07-23 HSI analysis)
Daily chart of HSI:
On daily chart, the index is still under the upward flag as mentioned before. The lower bound for the flag has become a strong resistant to the index. However, as the line is increasing, the conclusion we can draw is the index will not surge greatly.
Strong support is still at 18000 on daily chart. Besides that, there seems to be no other major supports underneath. Let's see weekly charts for more hints.
Weekly chart of HSI:
The index is still within the two boundaries, green and red solid lines. They give strong support and resistant at 18500 and 20400 respectively.
HSI was supported by the 10-week Simple Moving Average two weeks ago and surged last week. It has now reached the 50-week SMA so we can see whether it can resist the index.
Combining the two charts, it looks more likely for the index to plunge this week, given the resistant from the flag on daily chart and 50-week SMA on weekly chart. Support is at 19000 given by 10-week SMA on weekly chart, but it is expected to be weaker than before.
On daily chart, the index is still under the upward flag as mentioned before. The lower bound for the flag has become a strong resistant to the index. However, as the line is increasing, the conclusion we can draw is the index will not surge greatly.
Strong support is still at 18000 on daily chart. Besides that, there seems to be no other major supports underneath. Let's see weekly charts for more hints.
Weekly chart of HSI:
The index is still within the two boundaries, green and red solid lines. They give strong support and resistant at 18500 and 20400 respectively.
HSI was supported by the 10-week Simple Moving Average two weeks ago and surged last week. It has now reached the 50-week SMA so we can see whether it can resist the index.
Combining the two charts, it looks more likely for the index to plunge this week, given the resistant from the flag on daily chart and 50-week SMA on weekly chart. Support is at 19000 given by 10-week SMA on weekly chart, but it is expected to be weaker than before.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-22)
24-July (Tuesday)
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 0.5% from -0.5%}
25-July (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia CPI {Forecast: Decrease to 1.3% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease to -0.3% from -0.2%}
26-July (Thursday)
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Drop to 0.3% from 1.3%}
27-July (Friday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 US GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.4% from 1.9%}
Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
20:30 Canada Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 0.5% from -0.5%}
25-July (Wednesday)
09:30 Australia CPI {Forecast: Decrease to 1.3% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Decrease to -0.3% from -0.2%}
26-July (Thursday)
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Drop to 0.3% from 1.3%}
27-July (Friday)
20:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:00 US GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.4% from 1.9%}
Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Break very soon (2012-07-19 Gold analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Gold price (XAU=). The price should be breaking very soon, but till now we don't have enough hints to know which way it will be going. The only thing to do is to wait and see how it is moving.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
GBP Breakout? (2012-07-17 GBP analysis)
Above is the 4-hour chart of GBP/USD (GBP=). The price has just broken out of the recent downwards channel, and if it remains above the upper purple line for a few hours, the breakout will be confirmed. Next resistant is at around 1.578 which is the 50% retracement level.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Levels to be aware of (2012-07-16 HSI analysis)
Recently I am busy working on my dissertation and therefore I do not have much time to keep track of the stock markets and might update less frequently.
Last week global stock markets plunged, but US markets rose on Friday. Therefore, Asian markets are expected to open high today. This week numbers for CPIs are coming out but they do not have big influences on stock markets. Events to be aware of is when US Fed releases reports, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Bernanke might have some speeches that affect the markets greatly.
Let's see how Hang Seng Index (HSI) should be moving this week.
Daily chart of HSI:
The index finally breaks the upward-trending flag, to a lower level. Given the rise in US markets last Friday, HSI should be rising today and is going to test again the lower line.
Resistant is found at around 19450, if the index closes above the line, the breakdown would be fake and it would continue moving within the flag.
However, if breakdown confirms, it seems like there is no strong support until 18000 on daily chart. We need weekly chart to help identify any possible support in between.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, the index is supported by 10-week Simple Moving Average. We would have to see whether the index would breakdown of this support this week.
A shorter-term support is found at around 18400. So if breakdown confirms on daily chart, 18400 will be the next support.
As usual, the red dotted line shows a strong resistant at 20400 and the green dotted line gives strong support at 17800 (which means that 17800-18000 is strong support zone).
So good luck to all of you.
Last week global stock markets plunged, but US markets rose on Friday. Therefore, Asian markets are expected to open high today. This week numbers for CPIs are coming out but they do not have big influences on stock markets. Events to be aware of is when US Fed releases reports, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Bernanke might have some speeches that affect the markets greatly.
Let's see how Hang Seng Index (HSI) should be moving this week.
Daily chart of HSI:
The index finally breaks the upward-trending flag, to a lower level. Given the rise in US markets last Friday, HSI should be rising today and is going to test again the lower line.
Resistant is found at around 19450, if the index closes above the line, the breakdown would be fake and it would continue moving within the flag.
However, if breakdown confirms, it seems like there is no strong support until 18000 on daily chart. We need weekly chart to help identify any possible support in between.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, the index is supported by 10-week Simple Moving Average. We would have to see whether the index would breakdown of this support this week.
A shorter-term support is found at around 18400. So if breakdown confirms on daily chart, 18400 will be the next support.
As usual, the red dotted line shows a strong resistant at 20400 and the green dotted line gives strong support at 17800 (which means that 17800-18000 is strong support zone).
So good luck to all of you.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-15)
16-July (Monday)
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise to 0.2% from -0.2%}
17-July (Tuesday)
06:45 New Zealand CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.1% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.7%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Delivers Monetary Policy Report to Senate
18-July (Wednesday)
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Drop to 5.0K from 8.1K}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Gives Semiannual Report to US House
19-July (Thursday)
02:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
20-July (Friday)
14:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 1.8% from 2.1%}
20:30 Canada CPI {Forecast: Rise to 1.8% from 1.2%}
Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
17:00 Euro-Zone CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Rise to 0.2% from -0.2%}
17-July (Tuesday)
06:45 New Zealand CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.1% from 1.6%}
16:30 UK CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US CPI {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.7%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Delivers Monetary Policy Report to Senate
18-July (Wednesday)
16:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Drop to 5.0K from 8.1K}
22:00 US Fed's Bernanke Gives Semiannual Report to US House
19-July (Thursday)
02:00 US Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey
20-July (Friday)
14:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 1.8% from 2.1%}
20:30 Canada CPI {Forecast: Rise to 1.8% from 1.2%}
Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
Friday, July 13, 2012
Target not yet reached (2012-07-13)
Above is the daily chart of Cheung Kong (0001.HK). After breaking out from the head-and-shoulder inverse pattern, it seems like it hasn't reached its target yet. Due to the poor market yesterday it has just dropped to its strong support level, and there is good chance that it will rebound to the breakout target.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Going to breakout? (2012-07-11 Gold analysis)
Above is daily chart of Gold (XAU=). It has just reached the lower bound of the current flag, and it will probably surge and test the resistant again. Given the movement of MACD, it looks like it is going to break out upwards from the current flag.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Drop and rise? (2012-07-10 DXY analysis)
Above is 4-hour chart of USD Index (DXY). It looks like it would drop in short time because of the bearish cross in MACD, but its upward trend hasn't vanished given the MACD bullish divergence. So let's keep track of it and see when it will drop to a good support for us to take long positions.
Monday, July 9, 2012
A late post on HSI (2012-07-09 HSI analysis)
After a very busy week, finally I have little time to do some analysis on the market. Though this post is a bit late since the market has already opened, the below charts for Hang Seng Index (HSI) might still worth looking at.
Daily chart of HSI:
The index is pretty much moving within the narrowing range between solid green and red lines. Support is at 19350.
Weekly chart of HSI:
There is not much on weekly chart, the only thing we know that the index is approaching the upper down-trend line, which is a strong resistant to HSI. The risk for LONG is increasing.
Daily chart of HSI:
The index is pretty much moving within the narrowing range between solid green and red lines. Support is at 19350.
Weekly chart of HSI:
There is not much on weekly chart, the only thing we know that the index is approaching the upper down-trend line, which is a strong resistant to HSI. The risk for LONG is increasing.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-08)
9-Jul (Monday)
09:30 China CPI {Forecast: Drop to 2.3% from 3.0%}
10-Jul (Tuesday)
10:00 China Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to 24B from 18.7B}
11-Jul (Wednesday)
14:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to -48.4B from -50.1B}
12-Jul (Thursday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
02:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from June FOMC Meeting
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.2% from 5.1%}
16:00 European Central Bank Publishes July Monthly Report
13-Jul (Friday)
10:00 China Real GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.8%}
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com
09:30 China CPI {Forecast: Drop to 2.3% from 3.0%}
10-Jul (Tuesday)
10:00 China Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to 24B from 18.7B}
11-Jul (Wednesday)
14:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Trade Balance {Forecast: Rise to -48.4B from -50.1B}
12-Jul (Thursday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
02:00 US Fed Releases Minutes from June FOMC Meeting
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.2% from 5.1%}
16:00 European Central Bank Publishes July Monthly Report
13-Jul (Friday)
10:00 China Real GDP {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 1.8%}
21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight rise}
Time Zone: GMT +8 (HKT)
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-07-01)
2-Jul (Monday)
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight drop}
3-Jul (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 Euro-zone Producer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
4-Jul (Wednesday)
17:00 Euro-zone retail sales {Forecast: Rise to -1% from -2.5%}
5-Jul (Thursday)
19:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop to 0.75% from 1%}
6-Jul (Friday)
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Increase to 90K from 69K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight drop}
3-Jul (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:00 Euro-zone Producer Price Index {Forecast: Slight drop}
4-Jul (Wednesday)
17:00 Euro-zone retail sales {Forecast: Rise to -1% from -2.5%}
5-Jul (Thursday)
19:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop to 0.75% from 1%}
6-Jul (Friday)
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Increase to 90K from 69K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
Time Zone: HKT (GMT +8)
Source: http://dailyfx.com
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