Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Important Economic data this week (2012-02-26)
28-Feb (Tuesday)
21:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Decrease to -1% from 3%}
18:00 Euro-Zone CPI
21:30 US GDP Annualized {Forecast: Unchanged}
1-Mar (Thursday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}
14:45 Switzerland GDP {Forecast: Slight decrease}
21:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure {Forecast: Unchanged}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight incresae}
2-Mar (Friday)
21:30 Canada GDP
source : http://dailyfx.com
21:00 Germany CPI {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Durable Goods Orders {Forecast: Decrease to -1% from 3%}
29-Feb (Wednesday)
16:55 Germany Unemployment Change {Forecast: Increase to -5K from -34K}18:00 Euro-Zone CPI
21:30 US GDP Annualized {Forecast: Unchanged}
1-Mar (Thursday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}
14:45 Switzerland GDP {Forecast: Slight decrease}
21:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure {Forecast: Unchanged}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight incresae}
2-Mar (Friday)
21:30 Canada GDP
source : http://dailyfx.com
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Short-term bearish (2012-02-23 AUD analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Aussie (AUD=). The price recently broke down the upward trending channel, shown in red, and it will be in short-term bearish trend. Support is at 1.05. Nonetheless, target estimated by the previous flag breakout is 1.12, so if the price drops to support zone, it might be a good idea to long some Aussie.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Strong Silver (2012-02-22 Silver analysis)
Above is the daily chart of silver (XAG). It seems like it is undergoing a pretty strong bullish trend. 34.2 which is 38.2% projection level is quite likely to break and the next resistant levels are 35.4 and 36.5.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Corrections? (2012-02-21 AAPL analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Apple (AAPL). The crazy surge should have cooled down a bit, strength is getting weaker, and it should be the time for the price to undergo corrections.
Monday, February 20, 2012
Reach strong resistant (2012-02-20 HSI analysis)
Last week the global markets surged quite a bit. Hang Seng Index broke out the level of 21,000 and reached 21,600.
The week the futures of HVIX (Hang Seng Index Volatility Index) is released, though it is not expected to affect the market much. However, hedge funds and corporate investors might use this derivative to hedge their positive and that we would have to be aware of it.
There is no important economic data revealed this week till Friday when the GDP of UK and Germany are announced. Still it will be a news-dominated week.
Daily chart of HSI:
On daily chart, we can see that HSI reached 21,600 strong resistant level. The last two doji somehow tell us that the surge might get weaker and probably its time to drop.
21,600 is not only the start of the previous, but it is also one of the projection levels estimated by the flag breakout. Therefore, this would be a pretty strong resistant to the index.
If the index falls, the 10-day SMA will give a little support at around 21,050. Then 23.6% at around 20,300 and the green down-trend line at around 19,700 will be major supports.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, there is another resistant force at current level, given by the retracement level of 23.6%. This suggests the same thing as what daily chart tells.
In fact, we can see that there is no strong support levels on weekly chart. Once it starts dropping, the ground will be at around 19,500.
Therefore, we may conclude from the two charts that, there are weak supports at around 21,050, and strong support at 19,500-19,700. Once the index starts dropping, we could expect it to go below 20,000.
Good luck.
The week the futures of HVIX (Hang Seng Index Volatility Index) is released, though it is not expected to affect the market much. However, hedge funds and corporate investors might use this derivative to hedge their positive and that we would have to be aware of it.
There is no important economic data revealed this week till Friday when the GDP of UK and Germany are announced. Still it will be a news-dominated week.
Daily chart of HSI:
On daily chart, we can see that HSI reached 21,600 strong resistant level. The last two doji somehow tell us that the surge might get weaker and probably its time to drop.
21,600 is not only the start of the previous, but it is also one of the projection levels estimated by the flag breakout. Therefore, this would be a pretty strong resistant to the index.
If the index falls, the 10-day SMA will give a little support at around 21,050. Then 23.6% at around 20,300 and the green down-trend line at around 19,700 will be major supports.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart, there is another resistant force at current level, given by the retracement level of 23.6%. This suggests the same thing as what daily chart tells.
In fact, we can see that there is no strong support levels on weekly chart. Once it starts dropping, the ground will be at around 19,500.
Therefore, we may conclude from the two charts that, there are weak supports at around 21,050, and strong support at 19,500-19,700. Once the index starts dropping, we could expect it to go below 20,000.
Good luck.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Important Economic data this week (2012-02-19)
21-Feb (Monday)
08:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board February Minutes
10:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation
22-Feb (Tuesday)
17:30 Bank of England Minutes
24-Feb (Friday)
15:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}
08:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board February Minutes
10:00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation
22-Feb (Tuesday)
17:30 Bank of England Minutes
24-Feb (Friday)
15:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}
Friday, February 17, 2012
Keep on dropping (2012-02-17 EUR analysis)
Above is the daily chart of EUR/USD. Recently it has been moving along a downward trending channel. Support is currently at around 1.242, and resistant is along the purple line shown on the graph.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Bullish trend in gold (2012-02-16 Gold analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Gold (XAU=). After breaking out the green flag, it has a bullish trend. The Fibonacci levels on the graph are estimated through the flag breakout, and we have to be aware of these levels. Ultimate target is at around 2050. However, given the recent bearish cross in MACD, it is not a good time to buy Gold at the moment. Let's wait until the indicator shows a better strength in the market. In general, my view on Gold becomes bullish.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Volatility breakout (2012-02-15 VIX analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Volatility Index (.VIX). The index broke out the decreasing flag last week and will probably surge. 50-day SMA was able to resist it once but it is expected to be weaker when VIX tests it again. The retracement levels will be major resistant levels.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Imperfect Head-and-Shoulder inverse (2012-02-14 CCB analysis)
Above is the daily chart of China Construction Bank (0939.HK). This might not be a perfect head-and-shoulder reverse pattern because of light volume at break out, but we can still take reference of the levels suggested by it.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Another sideways week? (2012-02-13 HSI analysis)
Last week global stock markets were trading sideways, with one day up and one day down. "Greek talk" had been the reason for any movement for few days.
Hang Seng Index was doing the same as well, tested 21,000, dropped, and tested 21,000 again. It closed at 20,783 last week.
This week there will be several important economic data released, including US retail sales, some GDP in Europe and Fed's minutes, though they might not bring too much influence to the stock markets. Greece is still the main issue.
Daily chart of HSI:
On the chart, we can see that the index has been testing 21,000 several times last week. This resistant is given by the gap in early August 2011, and obviously this gap has still not been filled yet.
Good thing is there is a slight support by the 10-day Simple Moving Average. However, it is not expected to be strong enough to support the index for a long time.
Upside levels, given by the fibonacci projection, are 21,000, 21,600 and 22,200. This projection is estimated by the orange flag.
For supports, the next level should be at around 20,350, which is only a small range from the current level. After that, it would be the green line, which is at 19,700.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart we can see that the index has moved out of the Pitchfork range, so it is at a pretty "unlimited" position.
However, it looks like that going downward is more likely. If HSI really does so, the next support on weekly chart will be at 20,000. This is a quite strong level that it should be enough to support the index at this stage.
Resistant is still at 21,600, which is the same as that suggested on daily chart. This will be the resistant if HSI breaks out 21,000.
So basically this week will be another sideways markets week, until we see any major break outs.
Hang Seng Index was doing the same as well, tested 21,000, dropped, and tested 21,000 again. It closed at 20,783 last week.
This week there will be several important economic data released, including US retail sales, some GDP in Europe and Fed's minutes, though they might not bring too much influence to the stock markets. Greece is still the main issue.
Daily chart of HSI:
On the chart, we can see that the index has been testing 21,000 several times last week. This resistant is given by the gap in early August 2011, and obviously this gap has still not been filled yet.
Good thing is there is a slight support by the 10-day Simple Moving Average. However, it is not expected to be strong enough to support the index for a long time.
Upside levels, given by the fibonacci projection, are 21,000, 21,600 and 22,200. This projection is estimated by the orange flag.
For supports, the next level should be at around 20,350, which is only a small range from the current level. After that, it would be the green line, which is at 19,700.
Weekly chart of HSI:
On weekly chart we can see that the index has moved out of the Pitchfork range, so it is at a pretty "unlimited" position.
However, it looks like that going downward is more likely. If HSI really does so, the next support on weekly chart will be at 20,000. This is a quite strong level that it should be enough to support the index at this stage.
Resistant is still at 21,600, which is the same as that suggested on daily chart. This will be the resistant if HSI breaks out 21,000.
So basically this week will be another sideways markets week, until we see any major break outs.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Important Economic data this week (2012-02-12)
13-Feb (Monday)
07:50 Japan GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.3% from 1.4%}
14-Feb (Tuesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 3.6% from 4.2%}
18:00 Germany ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) {Forecast: Less negative}
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 0.7% from 0.1%}
15-Feb (Wednesday)
15:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.3% from 0.5%}
17:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Increase to 3.0K from 1.2K}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.4% from 0.2%}
18:30 Bank of England Inflation Report
16-Feb (Thursday)
03:00 US Fed releases minutes from Jan FOMC Meeting
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate
17:00 European Central Bank publishes Feb. monthly report
17-Feb (Friday)
15:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 3.1% from 4%}
20:00 Canada Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 2.8% from 3.0%}
07:50 Japan GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.3% from 1.4%}
14-Feb (Tuesday)
Bank of Japan Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
17:30 UK Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 3.6% from 4.2%}
18:00 Germany ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) {Forecast: Less negative}
21:30 US Advance Retail Sales {Forecast: Increase to 0.7% from 0.1%}
15-Feb (Wednesday)
15:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.3% from 0.5%}
17:30 UK Jobless Claims Change {Forecast: Increase to 3.0K from 1.2K}
18:00 Euro-Zone GDP (QoQ) {Forecast: Drop to -0.4% from 0.2%}
18:30 Bank of England Inflation Report
16-Feb (Thursday)
03:00 US Fed releases minutes from Jan FOMC Meeting
08:30 Australia Unemployment Rate
17:00 European Central Bank publishes Feb. monthly report
17-Feb (Friday)
15:00 Germany Producer Prices {Forecast: Drop to 3.1% from 4%}
20:00 Canada Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
21:30 US Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 2.8% from 3.0%}
Friday, February 10, 2012
Almost time ? (2012-02-10 VIX analysis)
Keep an eye on volatility, should be almost time for possible breakout. Upside would be more likely.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Small-cap stock with nice chart (2012-02-09 0912 analysis)
Haven't been updating small-cap stock for quite a bit. Above is the daily chart of Suga International Holdings Ltd. (0912.HK). The chart looks pretty nice with a nice break out of flag, and next resistant of around 10% above the current stock price.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Surging Aussie (2012-02-08 AUD analysis)
Aussie probably surges even higher and reaches the previous high at around 1.108. This level may eve break given its powerful flag break out. Watch out.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Limited surge (2012-02-07 HSI analysis)
Yesterday Hang Seng Index surged to 21,000 and was resisted, and closed at 20,709. With the deadline for Greece to repay the next big sum of debt coming nearer, it is quite unlikely for the global markets to continue rising given such big rocket these few weeks.
This week there are no highly influential important economic data revealed; therefore, it would be breaking news, perhaps by Sarkozy, Merkel and Papademos, that is going to affect the markets.
Daily chart of HSI:
We can see that the index has surged from 18,500 to 21,000 since early January 2012. Such abnormal uptrend can be explained by the breakout of the orange flag.
HSI even broke out the medium-term down-trend line two weeks ago. This breakout was confirmed by price movements afterward.
It reached 21,000 yesterday and dropped around 300 points, back to 20700. Obviously, the momentum for it to fill the gap in early August 2011 is still not enough. If the index could be able to break out 21,000, the next resistant is at 21,600, which is just a very small range.
Though the purple Pitchfork is trying to support the index, the medium line looks a bit fragile and it is quite easy for HSI to get into the lower area of the Pitchfork.
Therefore, this week should be a bearish week for HSI, and it should be going down to the consolidation area at around 20,300.
Now, let's further analyze the weekly chart.
Weekly chart of HSI:
Clearly the index broke above the purple Pitchfork which has been beautifully restricting the price movement since Q2 2011.
Given the current pretty strong markets, it is extremely unlikely that the index would plunge into the Pitchfork; therefore, we can treat it as a true breakout, and the Pitchfork is no longer useful.
Retracement levels show that there is a resistant at 21,600, which is the same as that on daily chart should the index break out 21,000. This is a very strong level, and we can find short opportunities if the index really reaches this level.
As mentioned, the room for surging is absolutely limited. It is not a good time to long any stocks, and if you are having long positions, it might be a good idea to hedge or sell the stocks. The market will be under corrections in these few weeks.
This week there are no highly influential important economic data revealed; therefore, it would be breaking news, perhaps by Sarkozy, Merkel and Papademos, that is going to affect the markets.
Daily chart of HSI:
We can see that the index has surged from 18,500 to 21,000 since early January 2012. Such abnormal uptrend can be explained by the breakout of the orange flag.
HSI even broke out the medium-term down-trend line two weeks ago. This breakout was confirmed by price movements afterward.
It reached 21,000 yesterday and dropped around 300 points, back to 20700. Obviously, the momentum for it to fill the gap in early August 2011 is still not enough. If the index could be able to break out 21,000, the next resistant is at 21,600, which is just a very small range.
Though the purple Pitchfork is trying to support the index, the medium line looks a bit fragile and it is quite easy for HSI to get into the lower area of the Pitchfork.
Therefore, this week should be a bearish week for HSI, and it should be going down to the consolidation area at around 20,300.
Now, let's further analyze the weekly chart.
Weekly chart of HSI:
Clearly the index broke above the purple Pitchfork which has been beautifully restricting the price movement since Q2 2011.
Given the current pretty strong markets, it is extremely unlikely that the index would plunge into the Pitchfork; therefore, we can treat it as a true breakout, and the Pitchfork is no longer useful.
Retracement levels show that there is a resistant at 21,600, which is the same as that on daily chart should the index break out 21,000. This is a very strong level, and we can find short opportunities if the index really reaches this level.
As mentioned, the room for surging is absolutely limited. It is not a good time to long any stocks, and if you are having long positions, it might be a good idea to hedge or sell the stocks. The market will be under corrections in these few weeks.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Important Economic Data this week (2012-02-05)
6-Feb (Monday)
17:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence {Forecast: Less negative}
7-Feb (Tuesday)
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop to 4% from 4.25%}
9-Feb (Thursday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 4% from 4.1%}
20:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Target {Forecast: Increase}
20:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
23:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
10-Feb (Friday)
08:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board Statement on Monetary Policty
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight drop}
source: http://dailyfx.com
17:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence {Forecast: Less negative}
7-Feb (Tuesday)
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Drop to 4% from 4.25%}
9-Feb (Thursday)
09:30 China Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Drop to 4% from 4.1%}
20:00 Bank of England Asset Purchase Target {Forecast: Increase}
20:00 Bank of England Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
23:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
10-Feb (Friday)
08:30 Australia Reserve Bank Board Statement on Monetary Policty
15:00 Germany Consumer Price Index {Forecast: Unchanged}
22:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence {Forecast: Slight drop}
source: http://dailyfx.com
Thursday, February 2, 2012
A fragile bullish trend (2012-02-02 EUR analysis)
Above is the 4-H chart of EUR/USD. I have incorporated what I would like to say onto the chart.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Big move or small move? (2012-02-01 VIX analysis)
Above is the daily chart of Volatility Index (.VIX). The index is currently within the red decreasing wedge and it is going to break out. We have to see which side it is going to break.
Levels to be aware of are indicated in the chart. Good luck.
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