Free technical analysis on Hong Kong stock market, world stock markets, foreign exchange market, commodities market, as well as some important notes for being a successful trader.
Monday, January 31, 2011
First in 2011 (2011-01-31 HSI analysis)
Finally here comes my first analysis in 2011. In December 2010, I mentioned about the head-and-shoulder pattern formation of HSI, which was not successful as the index bounced after slight breakdown of the neckline instead of keep dropping (due to support in weekly chart).
After one month, the index is currently on a falling track to 23617, after a surge above 24400. Too see how it would go, let's check the charts.
Daily chart:
The red line is a long-term up-trend line for HSI. It has been a pretty significant line for last 6 months. HSI broke it from above in mid-Jan, and we could see there were long upper shadows for last few candles, showing a great bearish push. Finally the index plunged further, reaching the level now.
It is now somehow supported by the 50-day SMA. But it is not a big support. The fibonacci retracement gives us more hints on the levels we are looking for. 50% and 61.8%, which are 23500 and 23200 respectively, are the next levels to be aware of.
MACD and its EMA are both moving downwards, showing shrinking momentum. In fact, we can see a clear bearish divergence at the period from the peak in October 2010 to the peak in January 2011. The index rose but MACD fell. This might be an indicator telling us about the slump after reaching 24400.
Weekly chart:
The weekly chart shows a clearer picture about HSI. The index has been moving along the green uptrend line for a long long time. Therefore, it remains the major support. There will be big support to HSI at 23200.
In fact, this level is also fibonacci retracement 38.2%. We could see the power of this level, so keep an eye on it!
MACD and EMA are touching each other. A bearish cross formation is in progress.
All in all, 23,200, which is the 61.8% fibs level in daily chart and major up-trend line together with 32.8% fibs level in weekly chart, will be the next important support level for HSI. For the upside, the red line in daily chart will provide resistance at around 24000, which is a psychological resistant as well.
After one month, the index is currently on a falling track to 23617, after a surge above 24400. Too see how it would go, let's check the charts.
Daily chart:
The red line is a long-term up-trend line for HSI. It has been a pretty significant line for last 6 months. HSI broke it from above in mid-Jan, and we could see there were long upper shadows for last few candles, showing a great bearish push. Finally the index plunged further, reaching the level now.
It is now somehow supported by the 50-day SMA. But it is not a big support. The fibonacci retracement gives us more hints on the levels we are looking for. 50% and 61.8%, which are 23500 and 23200 respectively, are the next levels to be aware of.
MACD and its EMA are both moving downwards, showing shrinking momentum. In fact, we can see a clear bearish divergence at the period from the peak in October 2010 to the peak in January 2011. The index rose but MACD fell. This might be an indicator telling us about the slump after reaching 24400.
Weekly chart:
The weekly chart shows a clearer picture about HSI. The index has been moving along the green uptrend line for a long long time. Therefore, it remains the major support. There will be big support to HSI at 23200.
In fact, this level is also fibonacci retracement 38.2%. We could see the power of this level, so keep an eye on it!
MACD and EMA are touching each other. A bearish cross formation is in progress.
All in all, 23,200, which is the 61.8% fibs level in daily chart and major up-trend line together with 32.8% fibs level in weekly chart, will be the next important support level for HSI. For the upside, the red line in daily chart will provide resistance at around 24000, which is a psychological resistant as well.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Important Economic Data this week (2011-01-30)
31-Jan (Monday)
21:30 Canada GDP (MoM) {Forecast: An increase of 0.1%)
01-Feb (Tuesday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing (Jan) {Forecast: Decrease}
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
16:55 German Unemployment Change {Forecast: Turn from positive to negative}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Increase}
03-Feb (Thursday) - Chinese New Year
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
04-Feb (Friday) - Chinese New Year
20:00 Canada Net Change in Employment {Forecast: Decrease by 0.8K}
21:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Increase}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate
source: http://www.dailyfx.com
21:30 Canada GDP (MoM) {Forecast: An increase of 0.1%)
01-Feb (Tuesday)
09:00 China PMI Manufacturing (Jan) {Forecast: Decrease}
11:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
16:55 German Unemployment Change {Forecast: Turn from positive to negative}
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Increase}
03-Feb (Thursday) - Chinese New Year
20:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchange}
04-Feb (Friday) - Chinese New Year
20:00 Canada Net Change in Employment {Forecast: Decrease by 0.8K}
21:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Increase}
21:30 US Unemployment Rate
source: http://www.dailyfx.com
Friday, January 28, 2011
JPHK Update (2011-01-28)
Finally I am back at Hong Kong. Will keep up with recent news and update analysis on the market this weekend.
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