JPHK Update (2010-09-30)

ICBC dropped by 3.18% today, and the price still could not make it through the resistance line. 0208.HK dropped by 0.82%, it is still under my watchlist.

Enjoy your 3-day holiday in Hong Kong.

Ready for long positions (2010-09-30 ICBC analysis)

After waiting for such a long time, finally ICBC was back to its resistance line and is testing this level. The bullish cross by MACD and EMA, as well as the increase in volume, further enhances the price and chance for breakout is lifted. The price could possible rise up to area around 6.5 after breakout confirms. Ready to buy?

JPHK would probably add this stock too.

JPHK Update (2010-09-29)

The current price for 0208.HK is 1.38, and is testing the downtrend line again. Almost time for a breakout!

Joining the big guys (2010-09-28 Polytec Asset analysis)

The above is the daily chart of Polytec Asset (0208.HK). The stock kept dropping along the red down-trend line for long term. After some time of consolidation, it started to reach the red line again, which is at the level of the previous consolidation, and was clearly resisted. However, it did not plunge greatly, showing the bullish momentum might be strong enough this time to break the downtrend line.

In terms of candlestick chart reading, the few large consolidations showed that the corporate investors are having shares in their hands, and they still have to find chance to pull the price upwards and make profits. If this stock breaks the red line this time, it would be an excuse for them to rasie the price. Why not join them then?

This stock would be among the choices for my portfolio JPHK.

JPHK Update (2010-09-28)

2382.HK returned back to my long price today despite of the large plunge of HSI today.

Well I guess it is a bad news to me

Morgan Stanley Said to Freeze Investment-Bank Hiring for 2010

By Michael J. Moore - Sep 27, 2010 9:48 PM GMT+0100 Mon Sep 27 20:48:03 GMT

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- James Gorman, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, John Mack, chairman, and Parker Gilbert, former chairman, talk about the outlook for the company, Wall Street and the U.S. economy. They speak with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Morgan Stanley, the sixth-largest U.S. bank by assets, froze hiring at its investment-banking division for the rest of 2010, a person briefed on the decision said.

The firm ruled out layoffs through the end of the year, the person said, speaking anonymously because the matter hasn’t been publicly disclosed. Jim Wiggins, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment on the hiring freeze. He said the company intends to hire brokers for the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney unit, a joint venture with Citigroup Inc.

The freeze, which includes the New York-based firm’s sales and trading units, comes as weak trading and equity underwriting volume may lead the five largest Wall Street banks to post their lowest revenue from investment banking and trading since the fourth quarter of 2008. Bank of America Corp. is firing as many as 400 employees in its global banking and markets division, a person briefed on the matter said last week.

Fox Business Network reported Morgan Stanley’s decision to freeze hiring earlier today.

Companies including Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse Group AG also have started reducing staff in Europe. Securities firms around the world will cut as many as 80,000 jobs in the next 18 months as revenue growth begins to slow, bank analyst Meredith Whitney of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC said in a report dated Aug. 31.

Seven analysts including Richard Staite at Atlantic Equities LLP in London cut third-quarter earnings estimates for Morgan Stanley in the last two weeks, citing weak trading in the quarter. The average estimate is 43 cents a share, down from 57 cents, according to 20 analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Morgan Stanley added about 400 employees to its sales and trading business since June 2009. The firm’s headcount was 62,926 at the end of June, up 3 percent from a year earlier.

Morgan Stanley declined 28 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $24.87 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares are down 16 percent this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alec McCabe at amccabe@bloomberg.net.

JPHK Update (2010-09-27)

So far so good, small stocks usually don't follow much of the index surge.

China Life is testing the bottom line of the wedge instead of the upper one, we still need some more time to decide which way we are going to bet on. Meanwhile, I will try to discover more.

One bad news and One good news (2010-09-27 S&P500 Index analysis)

A new week starts again. Good luck everyone on your trading, hope you have taken good rest in the weekend to prepare for the coming high-volatility week. There will be many important economic data which are going to affect the stock markets a lot. My view on S&P500 index is quite bullish for longer term, but in there might be some corrections in shorter-term.

Daily chart of S&P500 index:

The index made its way through the red triangle, and there is no resistance at all till 1172. However, we have to be aware of the MACD and EMA. They are both in a very high level, which almost reaches the highest level in early 2010. It might mean that the bull power might not be able to keep pushing the index upwards. Correction will probably follow.

Weekly Chart of S&P500 Index:

However, looking at the weekly chart, I would recommend everyone to buy stocks. The index broke the red triangle (which is actually that one in daily chart), and it is even clear that the next resistance would be at 1221, rather than 1172 suggested in daily chart. MACD and EMA are at level around 0, so it could probably keep going upwards.

By concluding both, in the next week there might be little corrections, we can seize the opportunity to buy stocks. Then, we can just stay and wait.

Important Economics Data (2010-09-26)

28/9 (Tue)
German Consumer Price Index (Sept) {Estimated: Increase}
UK Gross Domestic Product {Estimated: Unchange}
US Consumer Confidence
Japan Tankan Large all Industry Capex
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook

30/9 (Thur)
German Unemployment Change (Sept) {Estimated: Less negative}
Canada Gross Domestic Product (Jul) {Estimated: Change from positive to negative}
US Gross Domestic Product (2Q) {Estimated: More positive}

01/10 (Fri)
US U of Michigan (Sept) {Estimated: Increase}
US ISM Manufacturing (Sept) {Estimated: Decrease}

Breaking the wedge (2010-09-25 China Life analysis)

Hang Seng Index keeps on climbing everyday. I am optimistic on the index and would expect it to surge as high as around 22,800. So we should try to discover some good stocks which are components of HSI and would probably follow the bull.



Above is the daily chart of China Life (2628.HK). It is currently following the red wedge. Looking back the history, China Life fell greatly after breaking the large lime wedge. There was even a big gap there. I expect if the price breaks the red wedge now, the gap would be re-filled and the price would rise to around 33.3o and hit the lime bottom wedge line. Then we would have to further observe whether it will break the line or not.

Obviously, it really worth buying if breakout of red wedge confirms. So I would probably add this to JPHK on next Monday.

JPHK Update (2010-09-24)

I have decided to add 5000 shares of 2382.HK into JPHK with the close price 1.60. First target 1.80 and second target 2.0. I would update it everyday afterwards.

Breaking the wedge? (2010-09-23 Sunny Optical analysis)

Today I am going to post an analysis on a small stock: Sunny Optical 2382.HK. I found that it has the potential to surge for more than 10% in a short period. It has been moving in the range of 1.45-1.8 for a few months. Clearly corporate investors are having preparations for the next rise. Technically there is a wedge (in red) and if the price breaks it, it would be moving greatly.

Also, we could see that there was a bullish rejection candle in mid August with a high volume, this might show that actually the corporate investors were buying this stock and probably waiting for a possible big gain.

I will put it in JPHK tomorrow. Due to the time difference between UK and HK, I would update anything about it before 4pm in HK, which is 9am in UK.

Good time for buying (2010-09-22 HSI analysis)

It is 2am here in London and I am trying to catch up with the Hong Kong market.

Weekly chart of HSI:

The breakout should be confirmed, but there is still not yet a big and rapid surge. Instead, the volatility is really low these 2 days. Hopefully the first stop would be at 23,000.

Daily chart of HSI:

Daily chart tells us more this time. Clearly the index broke the red downtrend line, but we need 2-3 days to confirm it. The next stop will be at around 23,000. MACD and EMA are at high levels, showing that low volatility may happen before continuing to surge up to 23,000. It might be good time for us to buy some stocks.

Rising Triangle (2010-09-21 EUR analysis)

EUR was climbing over the past 2 weeks. We can see that it was following a rising triangle, and it almost reach the corner. The next resistance level is at around 1.320, which is the intersaction of fibs level and the lime upper line. If Euro breaks the triangle, it would probably break the last high too, which is at 1.33 due to the power of the triangle.

MACD and EMA are having whipsaw pattern, and just gave a bullish signal as MACD just crossed the signal line from underneath. I am bullish on EUR and expect it would break the triangle and surge even further.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-09-21)

21/9 (Tue)
Canada CPI (AUG) {Estimated: Increase}
US FOMC Rate Decision {Estimated: Unchanged}

22/9 (Wed)
Canada Retail Sales (JUL) {Estimated: Increase}
New Zealand GDP (2Q) {Estimated: Increase}

24/9 (Fri)
Germany IFO Expectation {Estimated: Decrease}

Annoying Network in Lonodn

The wireless in the University and my residence really makes me angry! I could not get access to the internet in my room and the wireless often disconnects in the University!

Sorry I could only start posting my analysis when everything settles down...

HSI rose 6.48 points today to 21977.34. As I could not get onto my charting software due to the unstable network, I would try to use some of my imagination. The index breaks the triangle on weekly chart, but today shows that people are also taking profits as they might believe there would be corrections afterwards. However, my view is quite optimistic. Having no big drop today shows that the power of full is still strong enough, as normal people would choose to sell at this point rather than having the courage to buy. It is the new 5-month high anyway.

I will keep an eye on both ICBC and 0716.HK. Hopefully the network would be fine few days later...

Breakout of HSI? (2010-09-17)

Weekly chart of HSI:

HSI finally broke the triangle on weekly chart and closed at 21,970 yesterday. If this breakout is confirmed by 1-2 more trading days above the triangle, then it should be a great time for us to buy stocks and wait for shorter-term investment. I will post more stocks with high potential to surge.

Daily Chart of 0716.HK Singamas Cont:

I would like to talk about 0716.HK. The price is getting higher and trying to test the previous high. The next big resistance is at the last high, once this breaks, the rise would be pretty great. Let's keep an eye on it

High risk low potential (2010-09-17 IShares India analysis)

After almost 20 hours of flight, I have finally arrived at London. The time now is 21:19 here and I will try my best to match the time in Hong Kong for updating my blog.



A friend of mine asked for my opinion on 2836.HK IShares India which he is owning right now. My suggestion is sell at least half of them these few days.

As we can see on the daily chart, the price surged greatly these days and hit the resistance. The might lead to a retreat of the price. Even if the price breaks the red uptrend line, there is another big resistance (blue line) standing near above. There is not much room for rising for this ETF but it carries high risk. So I think it would be a good idea to sell at least half to lock-in profits and be quick to sell all should the price fall.

Betting on pullback? (2010-09-15 HSI analysis)

Above is the weekly chart of HSI. After trying to break the triangle, the index was clearly resisted by traders betting on pullback. Well we still can't tell what will happen afterwards.

JPHK Update (2010-09-14)

It seems like I made a wrong decision to sell all stocks. Let's see what happen tomorrow.

Sell all stocks

I decided to sell all my stocks: 0161@3.80 ; 1228@0.300

Will update my portfolio later on

Stocks Following the HSI breakout (2010-09-14 ICBC analysis)

HSI reached 21,700 and is trying to break the triangle on weekly chart. Once breakout confirms, it would be a long and big surge. So let's discover some good stocks with high potential and would be more likely to follow HSI to rocket.

ICBC 1398.HK:

ICBC is currently moving towards the red downtrend line. This would be the third trial trying to break it. MACD and EMA are giving a bullish signal too. Once it breaks, we could expect the price to reach 7.0.

I will add this to JPHK once the breakout on HSI weekly chart confirms. But please be aware of the economic data released today, especially US Advanced retail sales which was expected to drop. This might push me to sell my stocks to take profits first.

JPHK Update (2010-09-13)

Keep it UP!

Important Economic Data this week (2010-09-13)

14/9 (Tue)
UK Consumer Price Index (AUG)
German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)
US Advanced Retail Sales (AUG)

15/9 (Wed)
UK Jobless Claims Change (AUG)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

16/9 (Thur)
Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

17/9 (Fri)
German Producer Prices (AUG)
US University of Michigan Confidence

I didn't miss much (2010-09-12 HSI analysis)

Well, it seems like I didn't miss too much. The index is still moving within the triangle on daily and weekly chart, but 60-min chart shows two bearish rejection candles. This might not look good as people propably are taking profits.

60min HSI:

There were two bearish rejections at 61.8% fibs level. 20SMA crossed 10SMA from above and MACD and EMA are just moving together. Does it mean that people are taking profits, leading to possible drop afterwards?

Daily HSI:

Daily chart tells different story. The last candle is a bullish rejection after touching the uptrend line, it shows that there is a strong force preventing the index from breaking downwards. MACD is turning upwards after touching EMA. HSI is going to surge and test the resistance next week.

Weekly HSI:

The candle this week didn't not break the triangle. Boring time is coming to the end and large break would follow. Around 1-2 candles to go!

JPHK Update (2010-09-11)

I am back at Hong Kong, unpacking my stuff. I would spend some time catching up with the markets today and tomorrow.

JPHK Update (2010-09-10)

I could not access to the internet until now so I could not update. Anyway, really having a good time in Taiwan.

JPHK Update (2010-09-07)

Finally I see a green light there. But 1228.HK really pissed me off. It's really hard to understand what the tapes suggest and why the corporate investors are doing so.

Anyway, I will be going on a trip to Taiwan for 4 days. I would keep updating my portfolio every night but I could hardly do analysis. I will catch up with the market on Saturaday night.

Bearish Trend (2010-09-07 EUR analysis)

These days FX seems to move faster and faster and is quite difficult to catch. We would have to look at the whole trend on longer time frames even when we are trading 5-min chart.

4H Chart for Euro:

EUR clearly has a reversed trend after the short-term trend of going upwards. 23.6%-fibs level would be the first little support, which is at around 1.2762, but I would expect it to fall back to the red line. MACD further reinforces the bear. At this stage, we could take little risk to short little Euro becasue it is still hanging in the middle. And if it plunges through 23.6% then we can rasie the bet.

JPHK Update (2010-09-06)

GOGOGO

Levels for HSI (2010-09-06 HSI analysis)

HSI opened higher this morning, reaching 21155 and is currently testing 21200.

Daily Chart:

Cleary the index breaks the red resistance, and the next resistance would be at the blue down-trend line plus the fibs level, which is at around 21,500. The bullish cross at MACD further enhances this test.

Weekly Chart:

The index surged back into the triangle on Thursday last week. It is still moving inside the triangle. The top is at around 21,500, aligning with what the daily chart suggests. HSI is slowing moving to the vertex, and a big breakout/breakdown is inevitable. There is still around 2-3 candlesticks to go, but I expect we could see a large volatility within 2 weeks.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-09-05)

It would be a fluctuating week for FX. Especially watch out for the CAD.

7/9 (Tue)
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

8/9 (Wed)
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision {Expected to increase from 0.75% to 1.00%}
Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (3Q)

9/9 (Thur)
Australia Employment Change (AUG) {Expected to increase}
German Consumer Price Index (AUG)
Bank of English Interest Rate Decision
Japan Gross Domestic Product (2QF) {Expected to increase}

10/9 (Fri)
Canada Net Change in Empolyment (AUG) {Expected to change from negative to positive}

JPHK Update (2010-09-03)

WTF 1228.HK dropped over 8%, and closed at 0.223 (-5.51%). I just can't understand what they are thinking. I would probably think of cutting loss next week if this situation continues. I can't see any back-up for this stock anymore.

What a beautiful 5-day chart... London bridge is falling down.. But the volume today still gives me some hope on it.

Levels for Esprit (2010-09-03 Esprit Holdings analysis)

The daily chart of Esprit Holdings (0330.HK) shows that the price is currently testing its support. After a little breakdown, it seems like traders are betting on rebounds so the price was promptly pushed back above the support. But the MACD seems to be opposing them. The selling pressure is growing. If breakdown confirms, the red downtrend line and 23.6%-fibs level would be the next support, which is at around 36.

If you are betting on a rebound, 43 is a big resistance.

JPHK Update (2010-09-02)

1228.HK looks a bit strange these days. Its price is being pushed upwards from low to somewhere near open everyday at around 15:59. I am still trying to guess what those corporate investors are trying to do. I don't think they are distributing their shares at such a low price, but I still have no idea what they would do next. I would update when I get clues.

Market Open Higher (2010-09-02 HSI analysis)

HSI today opened higher to around 20,880, which forms a false breakdown on weekly chart (unless it goes back to 20,500 in the next two days).

Daily Chart:

The index keeps moving between the red uptrend and lime downtrend lines. I predict HSI would surge to around 21,000, then will be resisted by the red uptrend line and fall.

Weekly Chart:

If HSI doesn't plunge to 20,500, there is a false breakdown. This might be a bullish signal leading the a breakout of the triangle.

JPHK Update (2010-09-01)

Awaiting Break (2010-09-01 S&P 500 Index analysis)

Above is the daily chart of S&P 500 Index. After the index broke the lime uptrend line, it kept moving downwards, forming another red downward-pointing triangle. It is likely that a break will occur in next few days, this may also lead HSI to break the triangle in weekly chart.