JPHK Update (2010-08-31)

Breakdown confirmed (2010-08-31 GBP analysis)

Hang Seng Index HSI was resisted by the level of around 20,800 yesterday and plunged today, back to 20,513 at this moment. The two stocks in JPHK, 1228.HK and 0161.HK losing 6.27% and gaining 4.27% respectively, roughly cancelled out and my portfolio value is losing a bit. I would update it tonight.

Now let's see analysis on GBP:

Above is the 4-H chart for GBP. A triangle has formed and the pounds broke it around 20 hours ago. The breakdown was confirmed, and it is heading down to 1.5242 predicted by the height of the triangle using fibs.

HSI update (2010-08-30 HSI analysis)

Daily Chart of HSI:

Hang Seng Index broke the up-trend line in daily chart. The whole trend is nevertheless looking not good.

Weekly Chart of HSI:

The index here is still within the pennant, there is still not breakdown sign. However, we should be aware of the fact that HSI is moving nearer to the vertex, so becareful of large volatility there.

Combining both, I would expect HSI having a bit rebounce to around 20,800 and is resisted by the red uptrend line in daily chart. What follows would probably be a large plunge, breaking the pennant.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-08-29)

31-Aug (Tue)
German Unemployment Change (AUG)
Canada Quarterly GDP Annualized (2Q)
US Consumer Confidence (AUG) [estimated: increase by 0.6]
US FOMC Meeting Minutes (31 Aug)

1-Sep (Wed)
Australia GDP (2Q)
US ISM Manufacturing (AUG)

2-Sep (Thur)
Switzerland GDP (2Q)
Euro-zone GDP (2Q)
European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision [estimated: unchanged]

3-Sep (Fri)
Switzerland CPI (AUG)
US Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG) [estimated: less negative]
US Change in Private Payrolls (AUG) [estimated: more positive]
US Change in Unemployment Rate (AUG) [estimated: increase by 0.1%]

Ready to take a ride? (2010-08-28 0161.HK analysis)

The reason I added Catic ShanZhen 0161.HK into JPHK could be less complicated than it looks.

With a long time of consolidation (with horizontal move), corporate investors should have bought a big enough amount of shares and are currently pushing it upwards. After the last surge to around $4, the price kept moving along the uptrend line with low volume. It looks like they have not yet started or at least not yet finished selling their shares. To achieve so, they would have to push the price once again upwards.

$4 would be a reasonable target, but seeing the 3-year chart, it is only an intermediate station for the quick plunge in Q2 and Q3 2008. The resistance power is not that strong. We could aim even high if it breaks 4.

JPHK Update (2010-08-27)

2nd stock in JPHK (2010-08-27)

I would like to add the second stock in JPHK --- 0161.HK Catic ShenZhen.

Current Price is 3.28, 2000 shares, so it costs HKD6560. First target is 3.90.

CSCL again (2010-08-27 CSCL analysis)

The weekly chart of CSCL shows a very typical breakdown.



Of course if the price could be back to around 2.85 today, it would be a false breakdown. But it looks very unlikely. If breakdown confirms, next support is at around 2.29 which is the 1-year low.

JPHK update (2010-08-26)

I will update the portfolio every night.

361 Degrees Sold (2010-08-26)

I have sold 1361.HK @ 6.73, (+11%, I bought at 6.05 on 03-Aug) as I could not see the buying momentum similar to that in last two days. I doubted that corporate investors are selling their part using the "positive news" reported by BOA Merrill Lynch.

This is only my personal portfolio but not included in JPHK.

First stock in JPHK --- 1228.HK

1228.HK opened at 0.255. I would allocate around 5% of the portfolio on it.

JPHK on 25-Aug-2010:
1228.HK, long 20000 shares at 0.255 (value=$5100), current price 0.250 (value=$5000)
Cash: $94,900.

I will draw a table afterwards.

Third Trial (2010-08-25 1228.HK analysis)

Today I would recommend a small stock --- Superb Summit International Timber Co. Ltd. (1228.HK), whatever. It is engaged in the (i) exploitation and management of timber resources in the PRC and (ii) marketing and sales of a wide range of timber products (from aastocks).



The stock is now at 0.255, which is just at the resistance level. We can see that there is an abnormal large volume on 23/8 with no big price change. I can't stop myself thinking that corporate investors are buying this stock and would eventually lead the price upwards.

On other hand, we can see that those corporate investors had tried twice to bring the price up, both stopped at around 0.44. However, the volume after these two times was not too large, so we may conclude that they are still holding this stock.

It should be almost time for them to have a third trial. Stop loss should be placed at around 0.235.

I will put a small amount of my virtual portfolio into it using the open price, and I will update the blog that time.

Last chance to sell (2010-08-24 HSI analysis)

Please pray for those Hong Kong tourists who were killed or injured in Manila. May God be with them.

HSI charts do not look good at all. Let's see the below timeframes.

Daily:

There should be a short support these few days. A bigger triangle is under construction which may lead to large volatility. The upper bound this time should be at around 21,670.

Will it last for long? Clues are given in weekly chart.

We can see that the index is actually moving to the vertex of the triangle. MACD and EMA have a dead cross here, though we have to wait till completion of the lastest candlestick for confirmation.

Nevertheless, it will be too risky to hold for long while a large breakdown is possible. We should sell at least half of our stocks when HSI is back to around 21,670 to lock profits.

Update (2010-08-23 CSCL and China Resources analysis)

I posted analysis on CSCL (2866.HK) and China Resources (0291.HK) on 15-Aug and 20-Aug. Here are updates of them.

Weekly chart of CSCL:

The price is still within the triangle. We are waiting for the breakout/breakdown signal. The simple moving averages are converging together, and it seems that a large volatility would tightly follow. Prepare for long/short and be fast.

Daily chart of China Resources:

The price breaks the cyan uptrend line. However, we still have to wait about 2 days to confirm a breakout, it might be a false one anyway. If breakout confirms, next resistance level is at around 35.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-08-23)

24/8 (Tue)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-year Inflation Expectation (3Q)
Canada Retail Sales (Jun)

25/8 (Wed)
US Durable Ex Transportation (Jul)

26/8 (Thur)
Switzerland Employment Level (2Q)

Another Chance to Long EUR (2010-08-21 EUR analysis)

It looks like here comes another chance for me to buy some cheap Euros for my trip in Europe in Jan-2011. Though I would not expect a slump as larch as that in May, I believe Euro could drop to around 1.2527 (61.8%-fibs).

EUR just broke the cyan uptrend line. Combining with a bearish divergence in MACD happened in July, I believe Euro would tumble. The big retreat in early August gave us the fibonacci projection on the chart. This projection gives us reference to predict how much Euro will drop --- 61.8% 1.25. The red lines form a short-term channel of movements in the near future.

Possible Breakout (2010-08-20 China Resources analysis)

Searching through HSI componenets to find any stocks to buy into JPHK, I found that China Resources (0291.HK) just reached its 1yr high, but unfortunately it was still under the green short-term uptrend line. If the trend line breaks, we could expect China Resources to rise till 3.5 suggested by fibs.

Neverthelss, thanks to jobless claims and shrinking manufacturing in Philadelphia area, the US markets plunged yesterday. S&P dropped 1.69% while DJI tumbled 1.39%. We can hardly expect Hong Kong stocks to gain today.

China Resources would have to pullback after reaching the resistance.

Virtual Portfolio (JPHK update)

I will start up a virtual portfolio with HKD100,000 principle. This portfolio would consist of only Hong Kong stocks. I will post once I decided to add a stock and would update the portfolio value every trading day.

The first stock would probably be CSCL (2866.HK). I am looking at the level for the triangle breakout in weekly chart. The price is still within the triangle, but if it close above around 3.05 tomorrow then I would probably hold this in my virtual portfolio.

To simplify, I will call it JPHK (Jeffrey's Portfolio Hong Kong).

Levels to watch (2010-08-18 CSCL analysis)

On 15-Aug, I made an analysis on CSCL (2866.HK). If you have followed my post, probably you have bought it at around 2.96 (Close price on Monday). And now there are a few levels to watch out.



Around 3.1 is the next resistance. Once it breaks, it is likely that it will surge till 3.39. For those who missed the chance last time, this is the level you have to look at.

If the price is resisted at this level, the support is at around 2.90. Break of this level is the signal for us to stop loss.

New Component (2010-08-17 Belle International analysis)

After seasonal review by Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited, two stocks were added into HSI components, namely Belle International (1880.HK) and China Coal (1898.HK), effective on 6-Sep. Funds including Tracker Funds and Hedge Funds will undoubtedly buy these stocks in order to keep track of the performance of HSI. Regarding this, these two stocks had surged more than 3% yesterday. If you would like to LONG Belle International, I would recommend you to observe few more days. Let's see the daily chart of 1880.HK.



The price surely broke the last 3-year high of about 13.05. However, a doji was formed yesterday after resisted by the pitchfork. The message behind the doji is dependent on the candlestick today.

If Belle International opens low and plunge, then a typical bearish doji star would appear giving signal of trend reversal.

On the other hand, if it breaks the fork upwards today, it shows a strong upward trend which we could buy this stock for some profits.

Important Economic Data this week (2010-08-16)

17/8 (Tue)
UK Consumer Price Index (JUL)
US Producer Price Index (JUL)

19/8 (Thurs)
UK Retail Sales (JUL)
US Philadelphia Fed (AUG) : Survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions.

Not a good time yet (2010-08-15 CSCL analysis)

One of my friends asked for my opinions on CSCL (2866.HK). My suggestion is: it's still not the right time yet.

Daily Chart:

Obviously, the price broke the support line two days ago. Based on this, it is definitely not a good idea to long CSCL now. It is currently testing this support again. If it can return back above the support line, then it provides good evidence for NOT TURNING to bearish yet.

Indeed, what makes me optimistic is the weekly chart, let's see:


A beautiful triangle is formed with the candlesticks in 2010. Triangle breakout (upwards) would lead the price to the last high 3.67, further breakout would have to be accompanied by a bullish market.

My suggestion according to these two charts is: If the price of CSCL rises till around 2.95 these two days, and close above 2.92, then it would be time to long CSCL. $3 is a big resistance. The strategy is: after buying the stocks, if it drops back below 2.90, we have to stop loss. If it breaks $3, then just wait till $3.6.

Of course, if it can't get back above the support level, we could do nothing but buying a put warrant.

Well... Supported (2010-08-13 HSI analysis)

It seems that Hang Seng Index does not have to drop till the red line for support. The cyan pitchfork as well as the 61.8% fibs level are pretty supportive too. Bad news are almost digested and the correction ends. If HSI does not breakdown till next Monday close, it would be good time to long some stocks.

Bearish or Correction? (2010-08-12 DJI analysis)

So everyone could easily draw a breakdown chart for Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 Index, but does it indicate a big plunge would follow? or is it just a correct? Personally, there is still some hope for bullish continuation there.

We can see that 50SMA is moving towards 250SMA from underneath. Past experience tells us that whenever 50SMA penetrates through 250SMA from the lower level, the market would still continue its bullish trend. This may be a good signal to wait.

Good luck and don't panic.

Slow drop (2010-08-11 EUR analysis)

Euro in 4-H chart had been beautifully supported by the pitchfork. However, breaking the red up-trend line, the 16-nation currency might not keep its original bullish condition and have a big chance to start falling. It would be a slow drop along the fork but not a volatile one.

MACD and EMA touches each other. Keep an eye on it and see whether they will cross each other. If they cross, a short-term rise should be following.

Breakout led by Results Announcement? (2010-08-10 Tencent analysis)

One of the leading internet companies in Mainland China Tencent (0700.HK) would be announcing its results tomorrow. Thanks to the rocketing market of online games, mobile phone games, as well as the profits led by ShangHai world Expo, CLSA estimated that the profits in 2nd Quarter would be around 1.8B (RMB). This may give a hard push to the price upwards. Technically, let's look at the daily chart.

Obviously, 250-day SMA is currently touching 50-day SMA. If the price could be pushed upwards tomorrow and 50SMA successfully crosses 250SMA, this would be a good bullish sign to long Tencent.

Also, the price now is testing 61.8% fibs level. Such a hard resistance can only break due to large news such as results announcement tomorrow.

Let's move on to a longer timeframe.



The previous candlesticks were either bullish rejections or big white sticks. The stock is obviously in up-trend. However, it is testing its long-term resistance (red-line) too.

Both daily and weekly chart shows that the price is facing a very big resistance now. Once it breaks, the momentum upwards would be large.

Possible Breakout Setup (2010-08-09 USDJPY analysis)

Tomorrow Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and JPY would definitely have a little fluctuation.



So would the announcement help JPY break the red downtrend channel? MACD and EMA seem to give a hint on it too. It looks likely that a breakout would occur. This might be a possible breakout set-up for traders.

Important Economic Data this week

Important Economic Data this week

10-Aug (Tue)
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

11-Aug (Wed)
GBP Claimant Count Rate (JUL)
GBP Jobless Claims Change (JUL)
GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (AUG 11)

12-Aug (Thur)
AUD Employment Change and Unemployement Rate (JUL)

13-Aug (Fri)
EUR GDP (2Q)
USD Advance Retail Sales (JUL)
USD CPI (JUL)

2 Time Frames Analysis (2010-08-07 DJI analysis)

With a fall of 131,000 in US employment in July, while the estimation was a decline of 65,000, DJIA opened low yesterday. You might question whether the markets would continue being bullish or reverse. Technical Analysis on DJI gives us clues.



Let's see the Daily chart of DJI . It was beautifully supported by the uptrend line and a bullish rejection was formed last Friday, showing a strong bullish view by investors. MACD and EMA touched again, however, we could see that they had touched twice before but actually they didn't cross. This is likely to happen again this time.

The hourly chart further enhances.

The red line is the same as that in daily chart. We can see that MACD and EMA are at the level around 0, and a bullish cross appeared. The index is going to reach 10702 again, but to break this resistance, a higher volume has to show up to give it a hard push. I believe it will still be in bullish in the next few days.

Bullish Bank (2010-08-06 CCB analysis)

Above is the daily chart for China Construction Bank (0939.HK). Although the price broke the pennant, it was not accompanied by surged volume. Therefore, the price did not show a crazy rocket. It is currently testing the 61.8%-fibs level which seems to be a hard resistance. If this level breaks, I expect that it would rise till at least 7.26.

And in late Jun, we could see that 50SMA crossed 250SMA from above, leading us to question whether the trend is going to reverse or not. However, the 50SMA crossed back 250SMA from underneath, ensuring us that the bullish trend is yet to end.

Bounce back (2010-08-05 USDCAD analysis)

Let's see the 4H chart of USDCAD. It has just touched the support line and the downtrend line. It is likely to have some rebounds, but will be resisted by the cyan pitchfork. Looking at the MACD and EMA, it seems that it will break the resistance and break upwards, there would be pretty big surge for USDCAD.

Important Economic Data (2010-08-04)

Important Economic Data this week:

5/8 (tomorrow)
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (AUG)
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (AUG)

6/8 (Friday)
CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL)
USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JUL)
USD Unemployment Rate (JUL)

Volatility might surge next two days. Good luck.

Downtrend Gold (2010-08-04 Gold analysis)

Any chance for gold breakout? I could not find any... One possible chance is to be accompanied by a big bearish stock market I believe. Downtrend would probably keep going on.

Nice Day and Small Wrap Up (2010-08-03 Summary)

361 Degrees (1361.HK) just simply broke the resistance at 6.0 and surged all the way up to 6.15. I bought 7000shares@6.05 after confirming its trend upwards this morning. It looks like that it would reach 6.7, and this would be the very strong resistance. See my previous analysis on it here: Breakout? (2010-07-27 361 Degrees analysis)

And among the two small stocks I have recommended so far, finally one rasied crazily. It was (2310.HK) Kwang Sung Electric. I would be quite optimistic on this stock and the next target would be at around 0.70. See my original post here: Small Stock (2010-07-06 KwangSung Electric analysis).

Good trade everyone. Would share whatever I got. Please keep supporting me and let's share ideas with each other to learn and improve ourselves!

Another Clue for HSI (2010-08-02 HSI analysis)

Luckily the market opened up today, otherwise I might have followed the clues by SMA and bought some bear. The 10 and 20SMA did not cross beautiful, but the 10SMA moved back upwards, forming a whipsaw.



One thing worth mentioning is that the MACD is testing its resistance the third time. This might be an important indicator showing whether HSI could further surge to new high in these weeks.

Ready for Plunge (2010-08-01 HSI analysis)

Well, it just doesn't look good for HSI. Let's take a look at the Hourly chart.



The 10 SMA has just crossed 20 SMA from above. If the cross confirms which means HSI drops on Monday, checking the past data, it would most probably (there was once that the index didn't drop after the cross) be followed by a plunge in HSI for at least few days.



Back to the daily chart, our expectation on the drop would be somewhere around the edge of triangle, which is at around 20,400. This would be a buy area for a rebound.