Final post

I have lost my remote access to my school's Reuters terminal for drawing charts, and I currently do not have any decent programs to do so; therefore, I have to stop posting. This blog will remain as educational purpose.

If you would like to have idea exchange with me, please feel free to email me: jeffrey.scw@gmail.com

Good luck and all the best to all of you.

Big Vol (2012-09-03 HSI analysis)

Last week global markets dropped a bit, while Hong Kong market slumped. US market closed higher last Friday, so HSI should follow and opened high today. However, the over trend is still quite bearish.

This week there will be some rate decisions and unemployment rates released that can affect the stock market, but they won't be expected to give great impact. Instead, these days its all about the sudden news from Europe and so we have to react fast to the news.

Let's see this week's HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














 
On daily chart, it seems like the 50-day SMA has failed to support the index, and the next support would be at 19300 given by the up trend-line these few months which should be quite strong.

Currently it is hard to guess whether there will be a breakdown below the green line; we would have to keep looking at it to see how it is going to be.

Other than this, there seems not much other meaningful hints on this chart.


Weekly chart of HSI:

On weekly chart, the index just fell below the moving averages, and the support given by the flag is at around 19000. Therefore, 19000-19300 would be a strong support zone for HSI.

Even if HSI falls below 19300, on daily chart we would have to be aware of false breakdown as there is support at 19000 on weekly chart.

Another observation is that on weekly chart, the three Simple Moving Averages converge and touch each others. This is a big hint of big volatility following. If allowed, it might be a good time to long volatility through either option strategies or VIX on HSI.

Better closely watch the market or you may lose a great chance.

Important Economic data this week (2012-09-02)

3-Sept (Monday)
16:30 UK PMI Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}

4-Sept (Tuesday)
12:30 Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
13:45 Switzerland GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 1.6% from 2.0%}
17:00 Euro-Zone Producer Price Index {Forecast: Decrease}
22:00 US ISM Manufacturing {Forecast: Slight increase}

5-Sept (Wendesday)
09:30 Australia GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Drop to 3.7% from 4.3%}
21:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}

6-Sept (Thursday)
09:30 Australia Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Rise to 5.3% from 5.2%}
17:00 Euro-Zone GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:00 UK BOE Rate Decision {Forecast: Unchanged}
19:45 European Central Bank Rate Decision {Forecast: Decrease to 0.50% from 0.75%}

7-Sept (Friday)
20:30 Canada Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Change in Non-farm Payrolls {Forecast: Drop to 127K from 163K}
20:30 US Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}

Time Zone: GMT+8 (HKT)
Source: http://dailyfx.com

Go, Gold (2012-08-30 Gold analysis)

Above is the daily chart of gold (XAU=). It has broken many major supports and is going to set off. Would be a good chance for long positions.

Dropping Aussie (2012-08-29 AUD analysis)

Above is the 4-hour chart of Aussie (AUD=). After breaking down the red up-trend, the direction has reversed and it should keep on dropping.

Still a bearish week (2012-08-27 HSI analysis)

Last week was another boring week with very low volume. This definitely was not a good time for most traders. The market was full of both good and bad news, so they kind of canceled out each other.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped after reaching the resistant I mentioned in last two weeks. Dollar also went down after I have posted the divergence post about DXY. Gold broke out as I have predicted too, reaching as high as 1675 which is expected to go higher if the breakout of the resistant line is confirmed.

This week there is not many important economic data released, but we have to be prepared of the possibility that US or Europe will be going to say something about the economy. Read fast and respond fast.

Let's see this week HSI.

Daily chart of HSI:
 














After reaching the purple resistant line two weeks ago, HSI started to turn its direction and slowly moved to lower levels. Last Friday, it dropped below 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

As US markets wasn't doing too bad last Friday, HSI is expected to open higher. 20-day SMA is anticipated to resist the index at around 20000.

If the index could not break this level, the break down will be confirmed. There is only support until 50-day SMA at around 19570 and ultimate support is at 19200 only daily chart.

Weekly chart of HSI:

Weekly chart gives a clearer view. HSI started to fall after touching the red resistant line. The SMAs are converging and together with the Fibonacci retracement they will be giving support at around 19600.

If the index reaches 19600, it seems like it will be supported and will tend to break out of the red resistant line. Of course this would depend on the volume at that time, but it looks like the trend.

Nevertheless, the trend this week is still bearish. It would have to be revised after reaching 19600.

Important Economic data this week (2012-08-26)

28-Aug (Tuesday)
22:00 US Consumer Confidence {Forecast: Slight increase}

29-Aug (Wednesday)
20:00 Germany CPI (YoY) {Forecast: Slight increase}
20:30 US GDP (Annualized) {Forecast: Rise to 1.7% from 1.5%}

30-Aug (Thursday)
15:55 Germany Unemployment Rate {Forecast: Unchanged}
20:30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core {Forecast: Slight drop}

31-Aug (Friday)
20:30 Canada GDP (YoY) {Forecast: Slight drop}